MLB Pick: Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s

by | Apr 16, 2019 | mlb

Houston Astros (11-5) vs. Oakland A’s (10-9), 4/16/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET
Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Listed Pitchers: Collin McHugh (2-1, 2.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) vs. Marco Estrada (0-1, 4.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
TV: SportsNet Southwest, NBCS California

Moneyline: Astros -155/A’s +145 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Houston Astros ride hot into a quick two-game series with the rival A’s in Oakland beginning Tuesday night. Does the MLB streak betting theory come into play with our free MLB pick here?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Houston and McHugh at around -135 over Oakland and Estrada, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then steamed that line 20 cents, to -155.

The Astros could also be found “getting” around -105 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Astros vs. A’s Set-Up

Houston rides a nine-game winning streak into this series, after sweeping three games from the Mariners in Seattle over the weekend, winning Sunday 3-2. The Astros then had Monday off.

Oakland, meanwhile, just split two games with the Rangers in Texas over the weekend, losing Sunday 8-7. The A’s then also had Monday off.

Sunday’s defeat ended a four-game winning streak for Oakland.

At 11-5 overall Houston trails first place Seattle by a half-game in the AL West, with the 10-9 A’s three games out.

This series is the second encounter between these teams this season; the Astros swept three games from Oakland two weeks ago in Houston.

Last year Houston took the season series from the A’s 12 games to seven.

Tuesday’s Starting Arms

Veteran righty Estrada is just one-for-four on quality starts this season. He started fairly well, allowing just five earned runs and 13 base-runners (hits + walks) through his first three starts, covering 16 1/3 innings. But last Monday Baltimore bopped Estrada for six runs and nine hits, including a couple of dingers, through four innings of a 12-4 Oakland loss.

For the season the A’s are 0-4 with Estrada, with the totals splitting 2-2.

In two starts last year against Houston while with Toronto Estrada gave up seven ER and 15 hits through 9 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays lost both those games.

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Fellow righty McHugh is 2/3 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he held the Yankees to two runs and four hits through six innings, with nine strikeouts, in an 8-6 Houston victory. And just before that he held these A’s to one run and three hits through six frames of a 3-2 Astros win. So over his first three starts of this season McHugh has allowed five runs and 15 BR through 17 innings.

Houston is 2-1 this season with McHugh, with the unders going 2-1.

That start 11 days ago against Oakland was McHugh’s first outing against the A’s since 2017.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

  • Houston is batting .268/.339/.445 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs five of its last eight games.
  • Oakland is batting .255/.316/.451 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least seven runs each of its last five games.

The Bullpens

  • The Astros bullpen owns a 2.70 ERA this season, with a 0.94 WHIP and a 57/11 strikeouts/walks ratio.
  • The A’s bullpen owns a 4.39 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP and a 68/29 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 11-5 in Astros games this season.
  • The overs are 10-9 in A’s games this season.
  • The unders are 2-1 in Astros-A’s games this season.
  • The unders are 7-3 in games played at the Oakland Coliseum this season.

Free MLB Pick

While we don’t always abide by the MLB streak betting theory, and we don’t often like going with the betting flow, we’re going with Houston in this spot. The Astros have won nine in a row and there’s no reason to believe they can’t bump that run to 10. But we also think the line on this game is a bit much, so we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half with Houston against he MLB run line.

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