The Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves wrap up their 2025 regular seasons at Truist Park in what amounts to a battle of veteran pitchers looking to end disappointing campaigns on a high note. Johan Oviedo brings his powerful but sometimes erratic arsenal against Charlie Morton, who has endured one of the most challenging seasons of his storied career. With both teams playing out the string and missing the playoffs, this matchup offers some intriguing betting angles, particularly with Morton’s severe struggles creating value on the visitor’s side despite Atlanta’s overall talent advantage.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Pirates Run Line +1.5 (-123) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-101) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-115) ★★★☆☆
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +174 | -208 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-123) | -1.5 (+102) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-106) | Under 7.5 (-115) |
Opening Line: Braves -200, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The money is showing some interesting trends for this season finale. Despite Atlanta being heavily favored on the moneyline, there’s been noticeable action on the Pirates’ run line at +1.5. This suggests professional bettors see value in Pittsburgh keeping this game close against Charlie Morton, whose 7.09 ERA has been alarming. The total has held steady at 7.5, with a slight juice increase on the under, indicating some respect for both pitchers’ ability to limit damage in what amounts to a pride game for both veterans. The most telling movement is the run line pricing, where the Braves at -1.5 has moved to essentially even money at +102, signaling market confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to stay competitive.
Pitching Matchup: Johan Oviedo vs Charlie Morton – Who Has the Edge?
Pittsburgh Pirates: Johan Oviedo (2-0, 3.57 ERA)
- Has been effective in limited action this season with a solid 3.57 ERA across 35.1 innings
- Impressive 9.9 K/9 rate shows his swing-and-miss stuff remains potent
- Control issues persist with 5.1 BB/9, but has managed to limit damage
- Holding opponents to a respectable .235 batting average
- Coming off 6 innings of 2-run ball with 8 strikeouts in his last outing
Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (2-3, 7.09 ERA)
- Enduring the worst season of his career with a bloated 7.09 ERA
- Walking too many batters (5.3 BB/9) while allowing 1.6 HR/9
- Has surrendered 5+ earned runs in 4 of his last 7 starts
- Still showing decent strikeout ability (10.7 K/9), but command has vanished
- Opponents hitting .288 against him this season
Advantage: Pittsburgh. Oviedo’s command issues are concerning, but Morton’s struggles have been far more pronounced. The veteran Brave has simply not been able to recapture his usual effectiveness this season.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Pirates’ relief corps has been a surprising strength this season, with Dennis Santana locking down 16 saves and providing stability in the late innings. Isaac Mattson has been reliable in a setup role with 12 holds. For Atlanta, Raisel Iglesias remains elite with 28 saves, and their bullpen features more proven depth with Dylan Lee (19 holds), Pierce Johnson (16 holds), and Tyler Kinley (13 holds) providing solid bridge innings. While Atlanta has the more established names, both bullpens should be fully rested and available for this season finale. If Oviedo can deliver 5-6 quality innings, Pittsburgh’s relievers have shown they can protect a lead. The Braves hold a slight edge in overall bullpen quality, but the gap isn’t as wide as their brand names would suggest.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Pirates are 35-44 on the road this season but have gone 7-3 in their last 10 road games
- Atlanta is just 38-41 at home in 2025, a major disappointment for a team with championship aspirations
- Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Oviedo’s 11 starts this season despite their overall losing record
- The Braves are 2-9 in Charlie Morton’s last 11 starts, showing his profound struggles
- Atlanta has lost 7 of their last 10 one-run games, showing vulnerability in close contests
- Pittsburgh has gone under the total in 6 of their last 8 road games
- Both teams have struggled offensively, with Pittsburgh averaging just 3.61 runs/game and Atlanta 4.47 runs/game
- The Pirates rank 25th in home runs per game (0.73) while the Braves sit 12th (1.17)
Oneil Cruz Spotlight: Pirates’ Shortstop Finishing Strong
After an up-and-down season, Oneil Cruz has been showing flashes of his tremendous potential down the stretch. The 6’7″ shortstop has 5 multi-hit games in his last 10 contests and has been particularly effective against struggling right-handed pitchers like Morton. Cruz’s combination of power and speed makes him a major threat to impact this game in multiple ways, whether through extra-base hits or stolen bases. His total bases prop (Over 1.5 at +181) offers tremendous value given Morton’s tendency to make mistakes in the strike zone. Cruz’s performance will likely determine whether Pittsburgh can pull the upset or at least keep this game within the run line.
Truist Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Truist Park has played relatively neutral this season, ranking 17th in MLB with a runs factor of 0.977 and a home run factor of 0.929. The slight pitcher-friendly tendencies could help both starters keep the ball in the yard, particularly important for Morton who has struggled with the long ball this year. September afternoon games in Atlanta typically feature warm temperatures with minimal wind effects, creating fair conditions for both pitchers and hitters. The dimensions (330 feet to left, 400 to center, 325 to right) don’t heavily favor either side of the plate. With two teams that have struggled offensively, the ballpark’s neutral characteristics should help keep scoring moderate, supporting the under as a viable play.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Pirates-Braves Showdown
Primary Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Runs (-123)
I’m taking Pittsburgh on the run line as my best bet here. Charlie Morton’s struggles have been pronounced all season, and there’s little reason to expect a dramatic turnaround in the season finale. His 7.09 ERA and 1.60 WHIP make it difficult to lay -1.5 runs with Atlanta, especially with their offense performing below expectations. Oviedo has been solid when healthy, and his swing-and-miss stuff gives Pittsburgh a fighting chance to keep this close or even win outright. The Pirates’ bullpen has been surprisingly effective, and with everyone available on the final day, they should be able to navigate the late innings successfully. I’d play this run line up to -130.
Strong Value Play: Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-101)
Oviedo’s strikeout prop offers excellent value considering his impressive 9.9 K/9 rate this season. He’s facing a Braves lineup that, while talented, has struck out at an above-average clip (8.47 K/game). Atlanta hitters will likely be aggressive in the season finale, creating more swing-and-miss opportunities. Oviedo has recorded 5+ strikeouts in 7 of his 11 starts this year, including 8 punchouts in his most recent outing. As long as he can work through 5-6 innings, he should clear this number comfortably. At nearly even money, this prop represents strong value.
Worth Considering: Under 7.5 Total Runs (-115)
Despite Morton’s struggles, there are several factors pointing toward the under. Both teams have been below average offensively, with Pittsburgh particularly anemic at 3.61 runs per game. The season finale often features less motivated offensive performances as players look ahead to the offseason. Oviedo has been effective when healthy, and even Morton has shown occasional flashes of his former self. Truist Park’s slight pitcher-friendly tendencies and the fact that both managers will likely use their full bullpens liberally support an under play. I’d consider this at the current price but wouldn’t go beyond -120.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -101 | ★★★★☆ |
| Oneil Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +181 | ★★★★☆ |
| Bryan Reynolds | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +143 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Charlie Morton | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -143 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Marcell Ozuna | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +154 | ★★☆☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pirates’ Value Opportunity Against Struggling Morton
Season finales often produce unpredictable results, but this matchup presents clear value on the Pittsburgh side. Charlie Morton’s 7.09 ERA makes him difficult to trust laying -1.5 runs, while Johan Oviedo has shown enough quality to give Pittsburgh a competitive chance. The Pirates have performed better on the road than at home this season, and they should be motivated to end their year with a positive performance. Atlanta has disappointed at home (38-41) and has struggled in one-run games down the stretch, suggesting they might falter in a close contest. While the Braves certainly have the talent advantage on paper, baseball games aren’t played on paper—they’re played on the field, and Morton’s struggles have been too pronounced to ignore.
Score Prediction: Braves 4, Pirates 3 (Get Kevin West’s Pitt/Atl expert pick
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