The Chicago Cubs (68-53) look to bounce back after a tough 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-71) in their series opener at Wrigley Field. Despite the Cubs’ recent struggles, Saturday’s matchup features a significant pitching advantage with Shota Imanaga taking the mound against Michael Burrows. The pitching disparity, combined with the Cubs’ home dominance and Pittsburgh’s road woes, creates multiple betting opportunities worth targeting as Chicago aims to even the series at historic Wrigley Field.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
Pirates vs Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +195 | -240 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-105) | -1.5 (-115) |
| Total | Over 9.0 (-115) | Under 9.0 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cubs -230, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been minimal, with the Cubs opening as -230 favorites and currently sitting at -240. The small bump despite Chicago’s recent struggles indicates sharp bettors still trust the significant talent gap between these teams. What’s more interesting is the total, which opened at 8.5 and has moved to 9 despite Wrigley Field typically playing as a pitcher-friendly venue (0.898 run factor). This suggests professional money might be targeting the over, but I see value on the under with Imanaga’s dominance and Pittsburgh’s anemic offense.
Pitching Matchup: Michael Burrows vs Shota Imanaga – Who Has the Edge?
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Burrows (1-4, 4.66 ERA)
- Struggling in his rookie campaign with just one win in 12 starts
- Allowing a concerning 1.26 WHIP while opponents are hitting .256 against him
- Has issued 25 walks in 67.2 innings, showing command issues
- Road ERA of 5.34 reveals significant struggles away from PNC Park
Chicago Cubs: Shota Imanaga (8-5, 3.19 ERA)
- Exceptional command with just 17 walks in 96 innings pitched
- Elite 0.97 WHIP ranks among the best in the National League
- Holding opponents to a .219 batting average at Wrigley Field
- Has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 14 of his 17 starts this season
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Imanaga’s precision and efficiency create a massive disparity against Burrows, who has struggled with command and consistency throughout the season.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs’ bullpen remains a strength despite recent team struggles, posting a collective 3.61 ERA over the last 10 games. Daniel Palencia (16 saves) has emerged as a reliable closer, while Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar provide solid setup options. The Pirates’ relief corps has been overworked during their struggles, with a troubling 5.87 ERA in their last seven games. Pittsburgh’s closer situation is less settled, with Dennis Santana collecting his 8th save yesterday but showing inconsistency with a 4.11 ERA for the season. The Cubs’ deeper, more rested bullpen provides another significant advantage in Saturday’s matchup.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cubs are 36-23 at Wrigley Field this season, one of the best home records in the National League
- Pirates are just 18-42 on the road in 2025, the second-worst road record in MLB
- Chicago is 30-10 in games when they don’t allow a home run, highlighting their run prevention capability
- Pittsburgh is being outscored by 84 runs this season, while the Cubs have a +114 run differential
- The Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have been outscored by 34 runs during that span
- Cubs are 9-3 in Imanaga’s last 12 starts at Wrigley Field
- The Cubs lead the season series 5-3, typically controlling games with their superior pitching
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Poised for Breakout After Recent Struggles
While Pete Crow-Armstrong has been in a pronounced slump over the past few weeks, yesterday’s three-hit performance against the Pirates suggests he might be turning a corner. The talented outfielder’s struggles coincided with the Cubs’ offensive downturn, but his ability to impact games with both power and speed remains elite. With 27 home runs on the season, Crow-Armstrong possesses the kind of game-changing talent that can erupt at any moment, particularly against a vulnerable right-handed pitcher like Burrows who has allowed a .280 average to left-handed hitters this season.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has played surprisingly pitcher-friendly this season with a 0.898 run factor (25th in MLB) and a 0.883 home run factor. The wind forecast for Saturday afternoon calls for 5-8 mph blowing in from right field, which should further suppress offense and benefit Imanaga’s fly ball tendencies. The Cubs have mastered their home environment, going 36-23 at the Friendly Confines, while the Pirates have been dreadful on the road (18-42). These park factors combined with the pitching matchup create a perfect storm for a lower-scoring Cubs victory.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Pirates-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)
I’m confidently backing the Cubs on the run line at -115. Imanaga gives Chicago an overwhelming pitching advantage, and the Pirates’ road struggles (18-42) make them vulnerable to a multi-run defeat. Pittsburgh has been outscored by 34 runs in their last 10 games alone, showing how vulnerable they are to blowout losses. With the Cubs desperate to stop their slide in the standings and Imanaga’s elite home numbers, laying the 1.5 runs provides excellent value compared to the -240 moneyline.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-105)
The pitching disparity and venue factors make this a strong under play. Wrigley Field has suppressed scoring all season, and with winds blowing in, Imanaga should thrive. The Japanese left-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of 17 starts, while Pittsburgh ranks last in the NL in runs scored (3.54 per game). Even if Burrows struggles, the Pirates’ anemic offense is unlikely to contribute their share to push this over nine runs.
Worth Considering: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
After collecting three hits yesterday, Crow-Armstrong appears to be finding his swing again. His matchup against Burrows is favorable, as the Pirates’ right-hander has struggled against left-handed power. With 27 home runs on the season, PCA needs just one good swing to cash this prop. At plus-money odds, this represents excellent value on a player showing signs of breaking out of his slump.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shota Imanaga | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Dansby Swanson | To Record an RBI | +140 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Bryan Reynolds | Under 0.5 Runs Scored | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Pitching Advantage Too Significant to Ignore
While the Cubs have been struggling, this matchup presents the perfect opportunity to right the ship. The pitching disparity between Imanaga and Burrows is simply too significant to ignore, especially with the venue factors favoring Chicago. Pittsburgh’s 18-42 road record and -84 run differential tell the story of a team that’s overmatched in this situation. I expect Imanaga to deliver a quality start, the Cubs’ offense to provide enough support, and Chicago to cover the run line in a relatively low-scoring affair at Wrigley Field.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
