The Pittsburgh Pirates (52-72) and Chicago Cubs (69-53) wrap up their three-game series Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field in what shapes up as an intriguing bullpen battle. After the Cubs snapped their historic 35-game comeback drought with Saturday’s 3-1 victory, they’ll turn to Javier Assad in just his second start of the season while the Pirates counter with reliever Carmen Mlodzinski as an opener. With Chicago clinging to wild card positioning and Pittsburgh playing spoiler, this matchup presents several interesting betting angles despite the lopsided odds.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (+110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +158 | -193 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-130) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cubs -180, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game tells an interesting story. The Cubs opened as -180 favorites and have been bet up to -193, showing steady support for the home team despite their recent offensive struggles. What’s more telling is the total dropping from 8 to 7.5, suggesting sharp money respects both bullpens in this matchup. The run line juice of -130 on Pittsburgh’s side indicates some resistance to laying the 1.5 runs with Chicago, though I see value on the other side at the current +110 price for Cubs -1.5.
Pitching Matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski vs Javier Assad – Who Has the Edge?
Pittsburgh Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski (2-7, 4.20 ERA)
- Making his first start since May 17 after nine starts to begin the season
- Has been much more effective as a reliever (2.55 ERA) than as a starter (5.67 ERA)
- Likely limited to 2-3 innings as an opener in this bullpen game
- Showing improved command with just 8 walks in his last 35.1 innings
Chicago Cubs: Javier Assad (0-1, 9.00 ERA)
- Making just his second start of 2025 after returning from injury
- Allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings in his season debut
- Posted a 3.05 ERA across 118 innings last season
- Likely on a pitch count of around 70-75 pitches
Advantage: Slight edge to Cubs. While both teams are essentially planning bullpen games, Assad has more upside as a starter and should work deeper into the game than Mlodzinski.
Bullpen Breakdown
This game will largely be decided by the bullpens, and the Cubs hold a definite advantage here. Chicago’s relievers have been outstanding recently, with Andrew Kittredge, Brad Keller, and the recently-acquired bullpen pieces providing manager Craig Counsell with multiple high-leverage options. Cubs relievers have posted a 2.93 ERA over the past two weeks.
The Pirates’ bullpen has been overtaxed during their recent skid, and using Mlodzinski as an opener further depletes their available arms. Pittsburgh relievers have surrendered key late-inning runs in four of their last six losses. With Colin Holderman and Hunter Stratton likely unavailable after recent usage, the Pirates’ middle relief could be vulnerable if this game remains close into the middle innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cubs are 37-23 at Wrigley Field this season compared to just 18-43 on the road for Pittsburgh
- Chicago has won 6 of 9 meetings with the Pirates this season
- Pittsburgh ranks 29th in MLB with just 3.52 runs per game while the Cubs average 5.00 (7th)
- The Pirates are just 3-7 in their last 10 games overall
- The Cubs have scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their 14 games in August
- Pittsburgh is 36-22 when not allowing a home run this season
- The Pirates have a poor .232 team batting average (27th in MLB) compared to the Cubs’ .252 (4th)
Seiya Suzuki’s Resurgence: Finding His Stroke When Cubs Need It Most
After a phenomenal first half that saw him lead MLB with 77 RBIs at the All-Star break, Seiya Suzuki endured a brutal cold stretch producing just nine RBIs since mid-July. However, his game-winning hit yesterday could be the catalyst for a turnaround. Suzuki has historically been a streaky hitter, and his comfort level at Wrigley Field (where he’s hitting .274 compared to .231 on the road) makes him an intriguing player to watch in this matchup. The Pirates’ bullpen has particularly struggled against right-handed power hitters, surrendering a .468 slugging percentage to righties over the past month.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has played surprisingly pitcher-friendly this season, ranking 25th in MLB with a runs factor of just 0.898. The ballpark has also suppressed home runs (0.883 factor) despite its reputation as a hitter’s paradise. Today’s forecast calls for 10-12 mph winds blowing in from left field, further enhancing pitching conditions. The Cubs have adapted well to their home park this season, emphasizing contact and situational hitting rather than simply trying to launch balls into the bleachers. This approach has contributed to their strong 37-23 home record and gives them an edge against a Pirates team that struggles to manufacture runs.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Pirates-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Cubs -1.5 (+110)
The value lies with the Cubs on the run line at plus money. Chicago has superior pitching depth for this bullpen game, a significantly better offense, and tremendous home-field advantage. The Pirates have lost six of their last seven games, with five of those losses coming by multiple runs. I expect the Cubs to build on yesterday’s offensive breakthrough and cover the run line against a depleted Pittsburgh pitching staff. This price offers excellent value at +110.
Strong Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
Despite both teams planning bullpen games, I see value on the under. The Cubs’ offense remains in a funk (three or fewer runs in 10 of 14 August games), while Pittsburgh ranks 29th in runs scored. Add in Wrigley Field’s pitcher-friendly tendencies this season and today’s favorable pitching conditions with winds blowing in, and we have a recipe for a relatively low-scoring affair. I’d play this down to Under 7.
Worth Considering: Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
After delivering the game-winning hit yesterday, Suzuki appears poised to build on that momentum. He’s historically been a streaky hitter who can get scorching hot for extended stretches, and the Pirates’ bullpen has been vulnerable to right-handed power. At plus-money odds, there’s excellent value in backing Suzuki to record at least a double or multiple hits today.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Kyle Tucker | To Record an RBI | +150 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Tommy Pham | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | Over 1.5 Hits | +160 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Pitching Depth Should Prevail
This matchup boils down to a battle of bullpens, and Chicago holds a decisive advantage in both depth and quality. While the Cubs’ offense has struggled recently, they’ve still been significantly more productive than Pittsburgh’s anemic lineup. The Pirates using Mlodzinski as an opener suggests a team with limited options and a depleted bullpen. Look for Chicago to take advantage of their home field and superior pitching to secure a comfortable win and take the series.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 1
