Pirates vs. Padres Total Pick 5/27/22

by | Last updated May 27, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres

Date: Friday, May 27th, 09:40 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Pirates +165 / Padres -200 (WagerWeb – One of the best online sportsbooks that most don’t even know exist!)

Total Line: 6.5


Pittsburgh: José Quintana (1-2, 2.43)
San Diego: Sean Manaea (2-3, 4.04)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Diego Castillo 3B
Cal Mitchell RF
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Rodolfo Castro SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Tyler Heineman C
Bryan Reynolds CF
Michael Chavis 1B
Ben Gamel LF
José Quintana P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Austin Nola C
Luke Voit 1B
Wil Myers RF
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Jurickson Profar LF
Sean Manaea P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 18-25-0 SU / OU 16-22-5 / Run Line W/L 20-23-0
San Diego Padres: 28-16-0 SU / OU 20-24-0 / Run Line W/L 24-20-0

The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, May 27th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a 5 runs win over Colorado by a score of 10-5. For the game, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 5 runs on 13 hits. The Pirates lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 9 hits, leading to 10 runs. In the matchup, Pittsburgh was favored at -130.0 on the moneyline. Through 11 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 55.0%. Together, the Pirates and Colorado combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. On the season, Pittsburgh’s over-under record is 16-22-5.

Over the Pirates’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -10. Compared to their overall average of 3.40 runs per game, the team’s offense is playing well. Over their last 5 contests, they have bumped this figure up to 4.2. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 4-7-3.

The Padres are coming off a tight loss to the Brewers, dropping the game 2-1. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits. With their 5 hits, the Padres could only muster 1 run. Leading into the game, San Diego was the betting favorite at -134.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 29 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Combined, the Padres and the Brewers’ run total fell below the OU line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 20-24-0.

In their last 5 games, the Padres have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 7. San Diego has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.32. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 8-4-2.

Pitching Matchup

Pittsburgh will roll with José Quintana (1-2) as their starter. In his previous outings, Quintana is lasting an average of 5.03, putting together an ERA of just 2.43. So far, batters are hitting just 0.216 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.45 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Quintana is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 4.25 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.32 walks per contest.

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Padres, with an overall record of 2-3. To date, Manaea has an ERA of 4.04 while lasting an average of 6.12 innings per appearance. Through 8 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.215. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Manaea is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.29 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Sean Manaea has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.00%, while averaging 6.875 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.94 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs San Diego History

For the season, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Currently, San Diego is winning the season series 2-1. Through 3rd games, the series’ over-under record is 2-1, with the average run total sitting at 6.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.67 runs. Dating back to last season, the San Diego picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Pirates and Padres averaged 6.86 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.14 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of San Diego’s last 19 games at home

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Friday’s matchup between Pittsburgh and San Diego, the over-under line sits at 6.5 runs. Even with this low number, I still recommend taking the under. Look for the Pirates offense to struggle against Sean Manaea, who has a WHIP of just 1.12. In addition, the Padres are coming off a series in which they scored a total of 4 runs vs Milwaukee.

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