Rays vs. Orioles Odds & Predictions 7/26/22

by | Jul 26, 2022 | mlb

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles

Date: Tuesday July 26th, 07:05 ET

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards

TV: MASN

Money Line: Rays -180 / Orioles +148 (Everygame - Oldest and most trusted sportsbook on the internet! In business since the 80’s!)

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan (10-3, 1.71)
Baltimore: Spenser Watkins (3-1, 3.93)

Rays Projected Lineup

Josh Lowe RF
Taylor Walls SS
Ji-Man Choi 1B
Francisco Mejía C
Yandy Díaz 3B
Brett Phillips CF
Randy Arozarena LF
Isaac Paredes 3B
Brandon Lowe 2B
Shane McClanahan P

Orioles Projected Lineup

Ramon Urias 3B
Rougned Odor 2B
Anthony Santander RF
Adley Rutschman C
Austin Hays LF
Jorge Mateo SS
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Cedric Mullins CF
Trey Mancini 1B
Spenser Watkins P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Tampa Bay Rays: 52-44-0 SU / OU 44-47-5 / Run Line W/L 44-52-0
Baltimore Orioles: 48-48-0 SU / OU 43-49-4 / Run Line W/L 62-34-0

The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday July 26th at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-180), with an OU line set at 8.0.

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Recent Form

The Rays come into this matchup having suffered a 4 run loss to the Orioles (5-1). Tampa Bay’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 8 hits, leading to 5 runs. On offense, the Rays finished with 1 run on 8 hits. Rays suffered the loss, despite being favored at -110.0. Through 68 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 59.0%. Combined, the Rays and Orioles fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.5 runs. So far, Tampa Bay has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 44-47-5.

After their 5 most recent games, the Rays have gone just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -3. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 4.0 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.18. So far, Tampa Bay has won over half of their 31 series played, going 15-14-2.

The Baltimore Orioles are coming off a big win over the Rays by a score of 5-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 8 hits. In the victory, the Orioles came up with 8 hits and 5 runs. This was a good win for the Orioles, as they were underdogs at 100.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 79 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 47.0%. Combined, the Orioles and Rays’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Now, Baltimore had an over-under record of 43-49-4.

The Orioles come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -2 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.4 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.20. On the season, Baltimore has won more than half of their series, going 14-13-4.

Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send Shane McClanahan to the mound with an overall record of 10-3. In his previous outings, McClanahan has lasted an average of 6.12 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.71. So far, batters are hitting just 0.176 against him. McClanahan is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.98 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Shane McClanahan has a strong strikeout percentage of 36.0%, including a per-game average of 8.17. Command has been a problem for McClanahan, as he is giving up 1.55 walks per outing.

Spenser Watkins gets the start for the Orioles, with an overall record of 3-1. To date, Watkins has an ERA of 3.93 while lasting an average of 4.35 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.255. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Watkins, as he is allowing just 0.86 per 9 innings. Watkins is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.58 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 14%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.42 walks per outing.

Tampa Bay vs Baltimore History

Today’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles will be their 14th meeting of the season. So far, Tampa Bay is leading the season series, 7-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 6-7. The average run total in these games is 11.63 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.38 runs. Last season, Tampa Bay picked up the series win, 18 games to 1. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 13-4. Last year, the Rays and Orioles averaged 11.63 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.68 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Baltimore
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games on the road
  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
  • Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s American League showdown between Tampa Bay and Baltimore Orioles, the Rays are the betting favorite on the moneyline. In his first start since the All-Star Break, I expect Shane McClanhan to pick up where he left off, as he hasn’t given up more than 2 runs since early June. I recommend taking the Rays to win multiple runs.

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