Weekly Rave and Review
I gave out five picks last week and went 2-3, so I gave back a little ground to the Books.
Let’s look at the three picks that lost to see if there’s anything to be learned from them.
ALWAYS take a look at your losses, don’t just dismiss them and go on to looking for your next pick. Sometimes you can pick up useful info for future bets.
College Football Review
All three losses came from college.
The lone win came on the Ok/Mich game Under, using one of my models for picking totals. It was a particularly good pick when you factor in that it was a choice between two morning games that qualified for the Under, and the other game, Oregon, sailed Over.
No problem with that pick.
The first loss of the day came with a play on Oklahoma. As stated in my article, it was based on Karma – I thought that after Michigan stole a game last week when they deserved to lose, there would be some justice in the world and they would lose their second game.
(I also believed Oklahoma to be the superior team.)
As soon as I submitted the article I saw my error but it was too late to take it back – there is NO justice in the world today (just ask Cora, Dawson, and Callan Clancy. Oh wait, I forgot, you can’t.)
In what handicapping world is Karma and Justice a reason to make a bet?
Like I said, always look at your losses, learn from them, and don’t repeat mistakes.
You won’t see another “Karma” bet from me this year.
The second loss was a bit of a desperation play that I should have avoided. I’m not happy that I haven’t had any NP Unders to play yet, so I tried to apply it to FCS games. The pick wasn’t entirely without merit, one game qualified last week and it stayed Under.
My play on Drake/N Iowa didn’t.
In fact, of the four games that qualified for Unders three went Over. I’ll cap the FCS again this week, with a record of 2-4 maybe the Unders are worth a Fade?
The third loss was Las Vegas, who never showed up in their game against North Texas.
I doubt I’ll have a bigger loss this season (bigger meaning by more points, not wager size.)
My one college futures bet had good news and bad news. I see the Big Ten as a three way race with Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State.
I’m dismissing Indiana, which leaves Oregon as my only challenge for Ohio State.
And the Ducks lost SU as 23′ point Favs!
This put Ohio State in a good position for the early lead in the Big Ten Championship race – until the Buckeyes blew a large lead by giving the Mannings a 21 point fourth quarter.
I can’t even tell you what happened, I shut it off at the end of the third quarter.
With a big lead and that defense, why watch anymore?
Doh!
What do I have to work with this week?
My best performing model thus far this season, the T1 Under spot, is 7-1 and I have seven games that qualify this week. Picks will be in my next article after I dig a little deeper into the stats.
NFL Review
As noted in the article with the pick and analysis, right up until kickoff I couldn’t believe I was actually making a bet ON the New York Giants. But I liked the QB edge, the head coach edge, and the defense edge that I thought the Giants would have, and they rewarded me with a 14-point win.
Will I stick my neck out and try to use them again this season?
I hope not.
Off to a good start with my only NFL Regular Season Wins bet (Miami Under 4′) as the Dolphins lost their season opener to the Raiders. It was one of the very few spots in the schedule that I thought they might come away with a W.
This sets me up beautifully because next up, another Rd game, at San Fran.
Can you say 0-2?
After that they get KC at Hm then another road game, at Minnesota.
To win five or more they have to win one out of every four games on their schedule and right now it looks to be a sure bet that they’re not going to get a win in their first four.
WNBA Review
Not content with just embarrassing themselves in the States, the WNBA decided to make fools of themselves on the world stage.
The third top scorer in the league (yes, Caitlin) was barely allowed to play. And as videos of the FIBA games showed, when she was on the court her teammates (for the most part) refused to pass to her
And just like in the regular season games she pissed them off with her excellent performance.
The regular season resumes on Thursday this week as teams play their last four/five games.
I hope I don’t have a play on any of them.
Bad enough the overall play is low quality and hard to watch but the actions of the league office, the coaches and the players just continue to disgust fans
