Red Sox vs. Rays Betting Analysis & Predictions

by | Jul 13, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Wednesday, July 13th, 07:10 ET

Location: Tropicana Field

TV: NESN

Money Line: Red Sox +140 / Rays -168 (WagerWeb - A great bookie to have for the upcoming football season as they offer the biggest NFL teasers on the web!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Boston: Josh Winckowski (3-3, 4.35)
Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.73)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Christian Vázquez C
Bobby Dalbec 1B
Trevor Story 2B
Alex Verdugo LF
Rob Refsnyder RF
Rafael Devers 3B
Jarren Duran CF
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Josh Winckowski P

Rays Projected Lineup

Francisco Mejía C
Brett Phillips CF
Isaac Paredes 3B
Josh Lowe RF
Yandy Díaz 3B
Taylor Walls SS
Harold Ramirez 1B
Ji-Man Choi 1B
Randy Arozarena LF
Shane McClanahan P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Boston Red Sox: 47-41-0 SU / OU 38-43-7 / Run Line W/L 48-40-0
Tampa Bay Rays: 47-40-0 SU / OU 39-43-5 / Run Line W/L 41-46-0

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, July 13th at Tropicana Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-168), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Red Sox will look to rebound from a close, 3-2 loss to the Rays. Despite the loss, Boston’s pitching staff gave up only 3 runs on 6 hits. On offense, the Red Sox finished with 2 runs on 6 hits. Red Sox suffered the loss, despite being favored at -115.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 53 of their games, winning at a rate of 57.9%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed Boston’s over-under record further below .500 at 38-43-7.

Over the Red Sox’s last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -7. Despite their below .500 record, in Boston’s last 5 games, they are averaging just 5.8. Their season-long average currently sits at 4.74 (4th. Boston’s overall series record is just 12-12-4.

The Rays are coming off a tight 3-2 win over the Red Sox. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Red Sox to 2 runs and 6 hits. The Rays’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 6 hits. In the game, Tampa Bay was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -105.0. So far, the team has won 59.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Rays and Red Sox run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Tampa Bay had an over-under record of 39-43-5.

The Rays come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 4.6, similar to their season-long average of 4.17. On the season, Tampa Bay has won more than half of their series, going 14-12-2.

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Pitching Matchup

Boston will roll with Josh Winckowski (3-3) as their starter. So far, Winckowski has put together an ERA of 4.35. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.17 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.289. This season, Winckowski has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.87 per 9 innings. Winckowski has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 3.5 K’s per game on a K rate of 15.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.48 walks per contest.

In today’s game, Tampa Bay turns to starter Shane McClanahan. For the year, he has a record of 9-3. In his previous outings, McClanahan has lasted an average of 6.12 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.73. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.178. McClanahan is allowing home runs at a rate of 1.04 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Shane McClanahan has a strong K% of 36.0%, including a per-game average of 8.29. McClanahan comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.64 free passes per outing.

Boston vs Tampa Bay History

For the season, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will be playing their 9th game of the season. Currently, Tampa Bay is winning the season series 6-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-6. The average run total in these games is 11.13 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.12 runs. Tampa Bay won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 12 wins to 11. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 15-8, with the average run total being 11.13 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.17 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
  • Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s AL East showdown between Boston and Tampa Bay, the Rays are the favorite to pick up a win, as Shane McClanahan has been excellent of late. Even though Tampa Bay’s offense has been streaky, I expect them to do enough vs Josh Winckowski to pick up a win. I like Tampa Bay on the moneyline.

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