Reds vs. Phillies ML Play 8/23/22

by | Aug 23, 2022 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Tuesday August 23rd, 07:05 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: NBCSP

Money Line: Reds +175 / Phillies -215 (BetOnline - Check out their 500K NFL Handicapping and 200K Survivor Contests!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (3-4, 4.12)
Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.31)

Reds Projected Lineup

Nick Senzel CF
Jose Barrero SS
Aristides Aquino RF
Mike Moustakas 1B
Kyle Farmer SS
Austin Romine C
Donovan Solano 3B
Jonathan India 2B
Jake Fraley RF
Nick Lodolo P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Matt Vierling LF
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Edmundo Sosa SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Jean Segura 2B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Ranger Suarez P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Cincinnati Reds: 48-72-0 SU / OU 61-57-2 / Run Line W/L 57-63-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 67-55-0 SU / OU 60-57-5 / Run Line W/L 63-59-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday August 23rd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-215), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Reds are hoping to get back on track after falling to the Philadelphia, by a score of 4-1. Cincinnati’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 8 hits, leading to 4 runs. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 3 hits. Cincinnati’s loss came as the underdog, getting 200.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. However, for the season, Cincinnati still has an overall over-under record of 61-57-2.

The Reds come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +10. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.25. Cincinnati’s overall series record is just 12-20-7.

Philadelphia is coming off a 3 run win over the Reds (4-1). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Reds to 1 runs and 3 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 4 runs on 8 hits. Philadelphia picked up the win while being favored at -240.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 81 games, winning at a rate of 57.9%. Combined, the Phillies and Reds’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (60-57-5).

In their last 5 contests, the Phillies have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -6 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.61. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 19-17-3.

Pitching Matchup

Cincinnati will roll with Nick Lodolo (3-4) as their starter. To date, Lodolo has an ERA of 4.12 while lasting an average of 4.93 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.279. Home runs have been an issue for Lodolo, as he is allowing an average of 1.16 per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Nick Lodolo has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. This includes a per game average of 6.55 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.28 walks per outing.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 8-5. In his previous outings, Suarez has lasted an average of 5.43 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.31. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.244 off the right-hander. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Suarez, as he is allowing just 0.79 per 9 innings. Overall, Ranger Suarez has struckout 20.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 4.62 K’s per game. Suarez comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.23 free passes per outing.

Cincinnati vs Philadelphia History

For the season, the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies will be playing their 5th game of the season. Philadelphia holds the edge in the series at 3-1. Through 4 games, the series over-under record is 1-3, with the average run total sitting at 12.17 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.0 runs. Last season, Cincinnati picked up the series win, 4 games to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-2. Last year, the Reds and Phillies averaged 12.17 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 7.5 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia’s last 14 games

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s National League matchup between Cincinnati and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. However, Nick Lodolo is coming off his best outing of the year vs this same Philadelphia lineup. In the game, he threw 7 scoreless innings, leading to 1-0 win. I recommend taking the Reds to pull off the upset.

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