Reds vs. Pirates Betting Predictions 5/12/22

by | Last updated May 12, 2022 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Thursday, May 12th, 06:35 ET

Location: PNC Park

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Money Line: Reds 113 / Pirates -135 (Get better lines – Every dollar matters!)

Total Line: 8.0


Cincinnati: Connor Overton (0-0, 2.53)
Pittsburgh: JT Brubaker (0-2, 5.68)

Reds Projected Lineup

Colin Moran 1B
Kyle Farmer SS
Tyler Stephenson C
Tyler Naquin RF
Mike Moustakas 3B
Matt Reynolds SS
Tommy Pham LF
TJ Friedl CF
Brandon Drury 2B
Connor Overton P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Jack Suwinski RF
Cole Tucker SS
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Diego Castillo SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Michael Perez C
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Ben Gamel LF
Bryan Reynolds CF
JT Brubaker P


Cincinnati Reds: 6-24-0 SU / OU 21-9-1 / Run Line W/L 11-20-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 12-17-0 SU / OU 13-14-3 / Run Line W/L 16-14-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday, May 12th at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Pittsburgh as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Cincinnati picked up a 3-run win over Milwaukee (14-11). Milwaukee came up with 15 hits leading to 15 runs against Cincinnati’s pitchers. The Reds benefited from an offense that generated 14 runs on 14 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 170.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 9.5 runs. Cincinnati now has an over-under record of (21-9-1).

In the Reds’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 8. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.13 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 8.0. Cincinnati’s overall series record is just 2-7-1.

In their last game, Pittsburgh took down the Dodgers by a score of 5-3. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on hits 5 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 8 hits. This was a good win for the Pirates, as they were underdogs at 170.0. In their 25 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 40.0%. Combined, the Pirates and the Dodgers’ run total fell below the OU line of 8.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 13-14-3.

In their last 5 games, the Pirates have put together a record of 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential of their last 5 games (-5). Pittsburgh has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 3.77. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 3-5-2.

Pitching Matchup

For the Reds, starting pitcher Connor Overton has yet to factor into a decision. In his previous outings, Overton is lasting an average of 5.1, putting together an ERA of just 2.53. So far, opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander. So far, Overton has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.0 home runs per 9 innings. Overton is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.5 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 18.0%. Throughout the season, Overton has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.69 per contest.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send JT Brubaker to the mound with an overall record of 0-2. So far, Brubaker has put together an ERA of 5.68. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.18 innings. So far, Brubaker has a batting average allowed of 0.22. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Brubaker, averaging 1.08 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, JT Brubaker has a strong strikeout percentage of 26.0%, including a per game average of 5.0. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.97 walks per outing.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh History

Today’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will be their 3rd meeting of the season. Cincinnati has the lead in the series at 2-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-0. The average run total in these games is 10.47 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.67 runs. Last season, Cincinnati picked up the series win, 13 games to 6. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 12-5. Last year, the Reds and Pirates averaged 10.47 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 5.32 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.
  • Reds are 18-40 in their last 58 games as an underdog.
  • Pirates are 43-92 in their last 135 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Pirates are 16-35 in their last 51 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

This matchup between the Reds and Pirates features two team’s that figure to finish near the bottom of the National League standings. However, the Pirates held their own in their series vs the Dodgers, and the Reds just took 2 out of 3 games vs Milwaukee. In terms of betting, I am counting on this to be a high-scoring game, finishing above the over-under total of 8 runs. In the two team’s previous series, no game finished below 10 runs. I expect this to continue in tonight’s matchup.

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