The St. Louis Cardinals (61-59) welcome the Colorado Rockies (30-88) to Busch Stadium for a Tuesday night matchup featuring two left-handed starters. The Rockies, owners of baseball’s worst record, enter on an eight-game losing streak while the Cardinals are looking to build momentum as they sit just three games out of the final NL wild card spot. Matthew Liberatore has been a bright spot in the Cardinals rotation this season, and I see him continuing his solid work against a Rockies team that has struggled mightily away from Coors Field.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-105) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-115) ★★★☆☆
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +169 | -208 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (100) |
Opening Line: Cardinals -200, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been minimal, with the Cardinals seeing a slight tick up from -200 to -208, suggesting steady money coming in on the home favorite. The run line price is more interesting, with the Cardinals -1.5 sitting at -105, indicating value on the Cardinals to win by multiple runs. The total opened at 8.5 and has held steady, though the juice has moved toward the over (-120), likely reflecting Colorado’s poor pitching combined with their decent offensive production. Professional bettors appear content with these numbers, as we’re not seeing dramatic line movement in any direction.
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland vs Matthew Liberatore – Who Has the Edge?
Colorado Rockies: Kyle Freeland (2-12, 5.53 ERA)
- Has been one of the least effective starters in baseball this season with a 5.53 ERA across 109 innings
- Strikeout-to-walk ratio (78:28) is mediocre at best, leading to a high 1.52 WHIP
- Road ERA of 6.31 is even worse than his overall numbers
- Has allowed 5+ earned runs in three of his last five starts
St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (6-9, 3.98 ERA)
- Enjoying a solid season with a 3.98 ERA over 113 innings
- Strong command with just 27 walks against 85 strikeouts
- Home ERA of 3.43 shows his comfort at Busch Stadium
- Has pitched into the 6th inning in 7 of his last 9 starts
Advantage: Significant edge to St. Louis. Liberatore has been steady and reliable, while Freeland has struggled throughout the season, particularly away from Coors Field.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been a major factor in their continued playoff push, anchored by JoJo Romero (16 holds) and Kyle Leahy, who secured the win in Monday’s series opener with 2.1 scoreless innings. St. Louis relievers have posted a 3.87 ERA in the last 10 games, providing reliable late-inning support. Meanwhile, Colorado’s bullpen has been a disaster, ranking last in MLB with a 6.35 ERA. Seth Halvorsen (11 saves) provides their only reliable arm, but he’s been inconsistent on the road. With both starters likely to go 5-6 innings, the Cardinals hold a decisive advantage once this game gets to the bullpens.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Colorado is an abysmal 14-46 on the road this season (.233 winning percentage)
- The Rockies have lost eight straight games, getting outscored 67-23 in that span
- St. Louis is 35-25 at home this season and has won 6 of their last 10 games
- The Cardinals are 3-1 in Liberatore’s last 4 home starts
- Colorado is 2-12 in Freeland’s 14 starts this season
- The Cardinals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams at Busch Stadium
- St. Louis is 45-21 when recording at least 8 hits in a game this season
Jordan Walker Spotlight: Cardinals Young Slugger Heating Up
Jordan Walker has been swinging a hot bat for the Cardinals, going 11-for-35 over his last 10 games. The 22-year-old outfielder presents a difficult matchup for Freeland, as right-handed power hitters have given the Rockies’ lefty fits all season. Walker has been particularly strong at home, hitting .292 with a .481 slugging percentage at Busch Stadium this season. His ability to drive the ball to all fields makes him a key player to watch in this matchup, especially with Freeland’s tendency to leave pitches in the middle of the plate.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium ranks as a slightly pitcher-friendly venue with a runs factor of 0.992 and a home run factor of 0.917. This benefits Liberatore, who has shown excellent command at home and knows how to use the spacious dimensions to his advantage. For Freeland, who has struggled with the long ball (1.47 HR/9), Busch Stadium might offer some relief from his typical road woes, but his overall poor command will likely neutralize any park benefits. The evening forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s with minimal wind, creating neutral conditions that should play to the Cardinals’ advantage as the better fundamental team.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Rockies-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-105)
I’m taking the Cardinals on the run line as my primary play. While laying -208 on the moneyline offers little value, the run line at -105 is quite attractive against a Rockies team that’s lost eight straight games. Colorado is 14-46 on the road, and Kyle Freeland has been one of baseball’s least effective starters with a 6.31 road ERA. The Cardinals have momentum after Monday’s comeback win, and Matthew Liberatore has been solid at home with a 3.43 ERA. St. Louis also holds a significant bullpen advantage that should help them extend any lead they build. I expect the Cardinals to win by multiple runs.
Strong Value Play: Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Burleson has been one of the Cardinals’ most consistent hitters, batting .282 with 19 doubles and 14 home runs. He’s been particularly effective against left-handed pitching, and Freeland’s struggles against right-handed hitters make this a favorable matchup. Burleson is 11-for-35 over his last 10 games and should see plenty of hittable pitches from a struggling Freeland. At plus-money odds, this prop offers excellent value for a hitter who’s been squaring up the ball well.
Worth Considering: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-115)
The Cardinals’ offense has been finding its rhythm, and they face a pitcher in Freeland who has surrendered at least 4 earned runs in 8 of his 14 starts this season. St. Louis should be able to put together multiple scoring innings against both Freeland and a Colorado bullpen that ranks last in baseball. The Cardinals have scored 5+ runs in 7 of their last 12 home games, and I expect them to continue that trend against one of baseball’s worst pitching staffs.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Matthew Liberatore | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jordan Walker | To Record an RBI | +140 | ★★★★☆ |
| Ezequiel Tovar | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals Should Handle Business Against MLB’s Worst Team
Sometimes handicapping comes down to identifying clear mismatches, and this game features several that favor St. Louis. The Cardinals have a significant edge in starting pitching, bullpen performance, home field advantage, and overall team quality. Colorado has been dismal on the road all season and enters on an eight-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by 44 runs. Matthew Liberatore has been a bright spot in the Cardinals’ rotation, particularly at home, while Kyle Freeland has struggled mightily all season. With St. Louis making a push for the final wild card spot, expect them to take care of business against baseball’s worst team.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 6, Rockies 2
