The St. Louis Cardinals (61-60) host the Colorado Rockies (31-88) on Wednesday afternoon at Busch Stadium in the rubber match of their three-game series. After getting shut out 3-0 last night, the Cardinals will turn to rookie right-hander Michael McGreevy, who has been remarkably effective at home this season. Meanwhile, the struggling Rockies will counter with lefty Austin Gomber, who remains winless in 2025 and has particularly struggled away from Coors Field. With the Cardinals desperately needing wins to stay in the wild card race, this matchup presents several intriguing betting angles worth exploring.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5 (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-120) ★★★☆☆
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Colorado Rockies | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +176 | -216 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cardinals -210, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The Cardinals opened as heavy -210 favorites and have seen the line tick slightly up to -216, indicating steady support for the home team despite the steep price. What’s more interesting is the run line holding firm at -110 on both sides rather than shading toward the Rockies, suggesting professional bettors see value in laying the 1.5 runs with St. Louis. The total opened at 8.5 and has seen minimal movement, though the slight juice on the over (-115) indicates a preference for runs in this afternoon matchup despite Busch Stadium’s reputation as a pitcher-friendly park.
Pitching Matchup: Austin Gomber vs Michael McGreevy – Who Has the Edge?
Colorado Rockies: Austin Gomber (0-6, 6.52 ERA)
- Gomber has been disastrous in 2025, remaining winless through 49.2 innings pitched
- His 1.57 WHIP indicates constant traffic on the basepaths
- Strikeout numbers (30 Ks in 49.2 IP) show diminished stuff from previous seasons
- Has allowed 10 home runs in his last 7 starts
- Road ERA of 7.81 in 2025, with opponents hitting .319 against him away from Coors
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy (4-2, 4.40 ERA)
- The rookie right-hander has been a pleasant surprise for St. Louis this season
- Exceptional control with just 7 walks in 45 innings (1.4 BB/9)
- Home/road splits tell the story: 2.93 ERA at Busch Stadium vs. 6.11 ERA on the road
- 1.22 WHIP indicates solid command despite modest strikeout numbers
- Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 5 of his 8 starts this season
Advantage: Significant edge to St. Louis. McGreevy’s command and home success create a stark contrast to Gomber’s road struggles.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been a strength lately, posting a 3.21 ERA over their last 10 games. JoJo Romero has emerged as a reliable closer with 3 saves and 16 holds, while Kyle Leahy has been effective in a setup role with 13 holds. On the Colorado side, their bullpen has been overworked and ineffective for much of the season. While Seth Halvorsen (11 saves) has been a rare bright spot, the Rockies’ relievers rank 29th in MLB with a collective 5.87 ERA. After Freeland’s lengthy outing yesterday (7.1 innings), Colorado’s high-leverage arms should be relatively fresh, but the quality gap remains substantial.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Rockies are an MLB-worst 15-46 on the road this season
- St. Louis is 35-26 at Busch Stadium, representing one of the few bright spots in their mediocre season
- Colorado is 5-16 in their last 21 games following a win
- The Cardinals are 40-12 when out-hitting their opponents
- Rockies are 4-21 in their last 25 games against teams with winning records
- Colorado averages just 3.71 runs per game (29th in MLB) while allowing 6.45 (30th)
- St. Louis is 19-7 this season when facing left-handed starting pitchers
- The Rockies have lost 12 of Gomber’s 14 starts this season
Brendan Donovan’s Success Against Lefties: A Key Matchup Advantage
Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan has been a consistently productive hitter in 2025, particularly excelling against left-handed pitching. Donovan is batting .307 with a .511 slugging percentage against southpaws this season, and his patient approach at the plate (40 walks) makes him especially dangerous against a pitcher like Gomber who struggles with command. With 9 home runs already this season and hitting near the top of the Cardinals lineup, Donovan should see multiple opportunities to drive the ball against a vulnerable Gomber, making his total bases prop one of the most appealing options on today’s board.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium ranks as a neutral-to-pitcher-friendly park in 2025, with a runs factor of 0.992 and a home run factor of 0.917. The dimensions (335 feet to left, 400 to center, 335 to right) don’t particularly favor either side, but the afternoon start time (2:15 pm ET) with temperatures expected in the mid-80s could help carry some balls. Gomber’s extreme fly ball tendencies (43.5% fly ball rate) could prove problematic even in this more spacious environment. Meanwhile, McGreevy has thrived at Busch Stadium, using its dimensions to his advantage by inducing weak contact. The venue clearly favors the Cardinals in this pitching matchup, especially considering Colorado’s dramatic home/road offensive splits.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Rockies-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
I’m not typically eager to lay 1.5 runs with a team hovering around .500, but this matchup screams blowout potential. Gomber has been thoroughly ineffective this season, particularly on the road, while McGreevy has been excellent at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals’ 19-7 record against left-handed starters further supports this play. St. Louis has won 7 of its last 10 home victories by multiple runs, and I expect them to handle this MLB-worst road team. The price of -110 offers solid value compared to the steep -216 moneyline.
Strong Value Play: Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)
Gomber’s 6.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP make this team total extremely attainable for a Cardinals offense that has been opportunistic at home. St. Louis averages 4.31 runs per game overall, but that number jumps to 4.82 runs at Busch Stadium. With Gomber allowing multiple home runs in 5 of his last 8 starts, the Cardinals should have no trouble putting up at least 5 runs today. I’d be comfortable playing this team total up to -130.
Worth Considering: Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Donovan’s success against left-handed pitching makes this prop particularly appealing at plus money. The Cardinals infielder is hitting .307 against southpaws this season and should see favorable pitches batting near the top of the order. Gomber’s tendency to leave pitches over the plate has resulted in hard contact all season. Donovan has exceeded this total in 4 of his last 6 games, and I expect him to continue that trend today.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Michael McGreevy | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | +105 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Hunter Goodman | To Hit a Home Run | +385 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ivan Herrera | To Record an RBI | +175 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals’ Pitching Advantage Too Significant to Ignore
When analyzing this matchup from every angle, the Cardinals hold a decisive edge that’s difficult to ignore. McGreevy’s command and home success create the perfect formula against a Rockies team that’s been historically bad on the road. Gomber’s continued struggles make it nearly impossible to back Colorado at any price. The Cardinals’ substantial advantage against left-handed pitching (19-7) further cements my confidence in St. Louis covering the run line. While the -216 moneyline is prohibitively expensive, the -1.5 run line at -110 offers an excellent alternative that should cash comfortably as St. Louis takes the rubber match and series win.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 6, Rockies 2
