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Run Line Betting: Braves at Diamondbacks 9/6/18

by | Sep 6, 2018 | mlb

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks 9/6/18 Pick

Time: 9:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, Az
Listed Pitchers: Anibal Sanchez (Atl) & Zack Greinke (Az)
TV: FS – Arizona & FS - Southeast
Moneyline: Braves +150/D’Backs -160
Over/Under: 8

National League playoff contenders collide when the Braves and Diamondbacks open a four-game weekend series Thursday night in Phoenix. How are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -175 for this game, with an over/under of 8 runs. The early betting action then dropped that line as much as 15 cents, to the -160 range.

The Diamondbacks could also be found getting around +135 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

Atlanta just got swept three games at home by Boston, blowing Wednesday’s game 9-8. The Braves led Wednesday 7-1 into the top of the eighth inning, but the bullpen gave up eight runs over the last two innings, including the final two on Brandon Phillips’ two-out homer in the top of the ninth for an agonizing defeat.

So Atlanta is just 2-6 over its last eight games.

And yet at 76-63 overall the Braves still lead the NL East by three games over second-place Philadelphia.

Arizona, meanwhile, just split two games at home with San Diego, winning Tuesday 6-0. The Diamondbacks then had Wednesday off.

Tuesday’s victory stopped a four-game losing streak for Arizona, which is also just 4-8 over its last 12 games.

At 75-64 overall the D’Backs trail first-place Colorado by two games in the NL West, and they’re 2.5 games behind St. Louis in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

In the only previous meeting between these teams, this season the D’Backs took two of three games from the Braves in Atlanta back just before the All-Star break.

Thursday’s Starters

Greinke (13-9, 2.97), by our strict standards, is 18/28 on quality starts this season and three for his last three. Last Friday he gave up three runs on six hits through 7 1/3 innings against the Dodgers, and over his previous three starts, he’s allowed just six earned runs and 16 hits through 20 innings. On the season Arizona is 16-12 with Greinke, with unders going 17-11.

In one start earlier this season against Atlanta Greinke tossed 7 2/3 innings of four-hit, shutout ball in a 3-0 D’Backs victory.

Reclamation project Sanchez (6-5, 2.98) is 7/19 on quality starts this year, although a short leash plays a part in that stat. Last Friday he held Pittsburgh to one earned run and five hits through 5 1/3 innings, and over his previous three starts, he’s allowed five ER and 14 hits through 17 2/3 innings. On the season the Braves are 10-9 with Sanchez, with unders going 12-6.

In one start earlier this year against Arizona Sanchez gave up just one run and five hits through six innings, although Atlanta lost that game 2-1.

Sanchez has been a wonderful find for the Braves this season, but we’re giving Greinke our handicapping check-mark for this pitching match-up.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Atlanta owns a .254/.319/.412 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.

The D’Backs own a .233/.310/.388 split against righties this year. But this lineup has produced just 20 total runs over its last nine games, and six of those came Tuesday.

We’ll give the Braves a short handicapping edge in the splits with the sticks for Thursday.

The Bullpens

The Atlanta bullpen owns a 4.06 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. That unit also, as mentioned above, blew a game royally on Wednesday.

The Arizona pen owns 3.14 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

So we gotta give the D’Backs our check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

Unders are 37-28 in games played at Chase Field this year, which are averaging 8.5 total runs per.

Unders are 3-0 in Braves-D’Backs games this season.

Unders are 11-0 in Arizona’s last 11 games, thanks to some very good D’Backs pitching but also those cold bats.

Free MLB Picks

Arizona gets two of our three main baseball handicapping check-marks, so we’re going with the Diamondbacks here. But that price is a bit steep for our taste. So instead, and despite the recent struggles with the bats, we’ll take a chance and go with Arizona against the run line at SportsBetting.ag for our free MLB pick for Thursday.