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MLB Value Pick: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

by | Jul 7, 2018 | mlb

San Diego (5th - NL West) at Arizona (1st - NL West)
When: Saturday, July 7th, 2018 10:10 PM EDT
Where: Chase Field, Arizona
TV: Local, MLB TV
Betting Odds: SD +183 / ARI -195
Total: 8un -107
By Rich Crew

Two NL West rivals go at it again at Chase Field in the second of a three-game set at Chase Field. The oddsmaker has listed the Diamondbacks as a large -195 money line favorite over the visiting Padres with the total listed at 8 runs.

These two clubs went at it last night, and both starters pitched well with San Diego’s Joey Lucchesi going into the sixth allowing two runs in 5 2/3 frames and Arizona’s Zack Godley completing six innings allowing one run on four hits. The victory by the Diamondbacks was the third in this series in five games all played at Chase Field. The four runs scored in the game fell well short of the 7.5 run total pushing the O/U record to 1-3-1 in the five contests.

Pitching Match-up

San Diego: Tyson Ross (5-6 3.78 ERA)
Arizona: Robbie Ray (3-1 4.89 ERA)

The Padres starter Tyson Ross got lit up at home in his latest by the Pirates getting tagged with seven runs over five innings pitched. The long ball was nemesis getting taken downtown three times in the game. He hits the road for tonight’s game where he has shone with a 3.12 earned run average over ten starts, and recording quality starts in seven of the games. Ross has owned the Diamondbacks with five consecutive quality starts although just one since 2015 and that came this season where he allowed one run over 7 1/3 innings striking out 10 batters!

The Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray tonight, and like Ross, he is coming off a poor performance allowing six earned runs over five innings here at Chase Field against the Cardinals. His previous start, in his return, was excellent pitching six shutout innings against the Marlins, so a return to form is not impossible tonight. Ray has not faced San Diego this season, but he did four times last season chalking up three QS, but worrisome id his previous outing against the Padres at home where he was taken out of the park three times allowing five runs in just 4 1/3 innings.

Statistically Speaking

The Padres are near the bottom in many offensive metrics. They’re 28th in runs scored, 27th in batting average, 29th in OPS and 28th in home runs. Pitching-wise they’re a middle of the pack type team with the 177th ranked earned run average and the 19th ranked WHIP.

The Diamondbacks are a middle of the pack offensive club ranking 19th in runs per game, but they don’t hit well for average with the 29th ranked team BA at .229. Their arms are a different story with a 3rd ranked team ERA of 3.50 and a 9th ranked WHIP of 1.22.

Betting Trends

  • San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • San Diego is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against
  • Arizona is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
  • Arizona is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • The total has gone OVER in 16 of Arizona’s last 24 games when playing at home against San Diego

Padres at Diamondbacks Prediction 7/7/18

Neither one of these squads are playing well with identical 2-6 won/lost records over their last eight games, and both starters are coming off poor performances in their previous start. That said, I think that the probability of the Padres’ Ross rebounding is far greater than the ‘Backs Ray. Ross has been fabulous on the road this season getting the QS in 70% of his starts and owned Arizona in his road start back in April allowing just one run on one hit over 7 1/3 frames. He appears to like pitching at Chase stringing together four consecutive quality starts and San Diego getting the money in three of them. It’s difficult to make a case to support a rebound in this spot for Robbie Ray. He was lit up the last time he faced them in 2017 at Chase he’s struggled this season at home with an enormous 7.88 ERA. I’ll take my shot on the underdog in this spot with the edge on the mound.

Crew’s Pick: Take the San Diego Padres +183 at Intertops where new clients can get a free $100 to bet by making a $200 deposit!

Baseball Sportsbooks

10¢ to: 20¢ to:
-200 -279
Heritage
-200 -240
5Dimes
-195 -266