San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers Game 3 Odds & Predictions

by | Oct 11, 2021 | mlb

San Francisco Giants (108-56) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (108-57)

When: 9:35 p.m., Saturday, October 11

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: SF +175/LAD -190 (BetNow - Receive a 100% bonus on your deposit of $100 to $1000!)

Runline: Giants +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 7

Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood (10-4, 3.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)

Return of an Old Friend

A year ago, Alex Wood was part of the bullpen that helped swing the NLCS away from the Braves and bring the Dodgers their first World Series crown since 1988, as he gave Los Angeles 6.2 innings of work and gave up just one earned run in four appearances during the postseason in 2020.

Now Wood’s got to figure out how to beat the Dodgers in the playoffs, and even though he’s pitching against his old team, he’s not pitching in a familiar situation. Thanks to closed doors caused by COVID, the Dodgers played just two playoff games at Dodger Stadium in 2020 before moving to neutral sites, and Wood didn’t pitch in either of them. All of his playoff appearances came in Texas, making this a genuinely new experience for him.

Facing his old team hasn’t been a pleasant experience for Wood, as the Dodgers have beaten the Giants in all three of his starts. Wood wasn’t great against his old team, but he wasn’t awful either, giving up nine runs in 17 innings of work. However, given the situation he faces in this game, simply being decent might not be enough.

One-Way Traffic

These teams played close games during the regular season, but so far, only one team has brought their bats in each game of this series. The Giants handcuffed the Dodgers in Game 1, while the Dodgers unloaded on the Giants’ bullpen in the second game to get the split they needed out of San Francisco.

What has to worry the Giants here is that the Dodgers found a combination that works in moving Cody Bellinger over to first base while Max Muncy is injured. Not only did that get the hot bat of Chris Taylor in the lineup — Taylor had a double and another hit, reaching base three times — but Bellinger’s bat also came to life with a double in the sixth inning of Game 2 after he’d batted .053 against San Francisco in the regular season. If the Dodgers are getting contributions from Bellinger to the point that they don’t even miss Muncy, it could be tough sledding for San Francisco moving forward.

The Reason Why

This is why the Dodgers imported Max Scherzer at the deadline: they knew they were going to need more pitching if they were going to handle the Giants (and the Brewers, for that matter) in the postseason. Los Angeles doesn’t have a great bullpen this season, so the Dodgers’ best way to beat opponents is to jump on them early with a dominant starter and ride them as long as possible.

Starters don’t come much better than Scherzer, who is 7-0 in Dodger blue and has yet to see the Dodgers lose in a game he’s pitched. Even in a game where he wasn’t at his best, Scherzer did enough to get the job done, as he got Los Angeles into the fifth in the wild card game and allowed Taylor to make the difference.

The Giants only saw Scherzer once all year, and that just barely, as he came out after just 12 pitches as a precaution when the Giants faced the Nationals in June. This time, they’re not likely to get a reprieve.

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Betting Trends

  • The Giants are 21-5 in their past 26 after an off day.
  • The Giants are 5-1 in their past six Monday games.
  • The Dodgers are 43-12 in their past 55 games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 8-2 in their past 10 NLDS home games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Giants’ past seven Monday games.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Giants’ past six games after a loss.
  • The under is 14-2 in the Dodgers’ past 16 games after an off day.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ past six home games.
  • The Giants are 7-3 in the past ten meetings.
  • The under is 6-3-1 in the past ten matchups.

Weather Report

Strong winds and dropping temperatures could play a role here, as temperatures will fall from 72 degrees to 67, and wind will come in from the left field at 17 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Dodgers showed they could handle the Giants, and with momentum and Scherzer on their side, I think they’ve got the edge they needed to get the lead in the series here. The Giants haven’t seen Scherzer all year outside of 12 pitchers and are going to have a hard time touching a pitcher like this when they haven’t faced him since 2019. Give me Los Angeles. Bet your MLB playoffs for FREE by taking advantage of a 50% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at one of the BEST sportsbooks on the net where your credit card WILL work for deposits —> Bovada Sportsbook!

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