Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick 6/29/21

by | Jun 29, 2021 | mlb

Seattle Mariners (41-38) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (40-36)

When: 7:07 p.m., Tuesday, June 29

Where: Sahlen Field, Buffalo, N.Y.

Moneyline: SEA +120/TOR -145 (Get the best lines >>> It makes ZERO sense to not be betting at the cheapest prices! Make the switch and start saving big $$$ today!)

Runline: Mariners +1.5/Blue Jays -1.5

Total: 10

Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) vs. Robbie Ray (5-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

Contrasting Styles

Something’s got to give here between the expansion cousins of 1977. The Blue Jays have been all offense, almost to the point that the books have overcompensated and made their totals a fair amount higher than they should be. Despite holding the second-best batting average in the majors and averaging more than five runs a game, the Jays have actually been an under team to this point in the season.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have actually been an over team despite having the second-worst batting average and the worst OBP in the game. Seattle averages a full run per game fewer than Toronto, but the books have adjusted for that and seen the Mariners go 39-37-3 to the over this season. The books are leaning toward Toronto’s game plan winning the day, but that could very well be because of recency bias, thanks to the Jays teeing off on the Orioles.

Respect the Flex

Very little respect has actually come Chris Flexen’s way this season, and certainly little from the oddsmakers because Seattle has been the underdog in eight of his past ten starts. The Mariners won six of them and won all but one of them by two runs or more.
Two has actually been the magic number for Flexen, who has only needed that much from his offense in order to get a win. Seattle is 10-3 this season when Flexen takes the mound, and all three losses have been in games where the Mariners scored one run or less.
So why does Flexen get so little respect and find himself constantly in the underdog role? The most likely reason is because he’s not a strikeout pitcher. In 74 innings of work, Flexen has only fanned 50 hitters in 2021, not a number that attracts attention in today’s K-centric world. But pitching to contact has worked out rather well for Flexen, who’s held three of his past five opponents to one run or less and won all three of those starts.

Strikeout Artist

At the other end of the spectrum, the Jays counter with Robbie Ray, who is very much a strikeout pitcher and has often put up some ridiculous numbers on the mound this year. In his most recent “home” start (his past four pitching appearances have all been on the road), Ray fanned nine Marlins, and that was the third-highest total that he’s recorded in his past five starts.
In large part because of the strikeouts, this is the wrong place to look if you’re expecting a lot of runs. Ray has also held three of his past five opponents to one run or less, and even when he does struggle, he doesn’t tend to give up a ton of runs. In his past five starts, the total has gone under four times, and the one exception was because the Blue Jays’ hitters put up 18 runs on Boston.

Betting Trends

  • The Mariners have won seven of their past nine contests.
  • The Mariners have won their past four games against the AL East.
  • The Blue Jays have won seven of their past eight contests.
  • The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their past 11 games following an off day.
  • The over is 5-2 in the Mariners’ past seven games after an off day.
  • The under is 7-1 in the Blue Jays’ past eight games played on a Tuesday.
  • The Mariners have won four of the past five meetings.
  • The under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings in Toronto.

Weather Report

It’s not going to be the greatest night for baseball in western New York, with humidity in the forecast on a 77-degree day and winds blowing toward the third base line at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

Both of these teams are playing very well as of late, but there’s a difference in the quality of opposition the teams have faced. Seattle swept Tampa Bay and took two out of three off of Chicago to get into its current position. Toronto, on the other hand, was beating up on Baltimore. The Orioles have provided the Jays with five of their past seven wins, and the other two came against a weak Miami squad.
The Jays just haven’t been playing the kind of opponents the Mariners are, and Flexen’s pitching very well at the moment. Plus, the value on the Jays is just not there with the way the line has been set. Give me Seattle. Did you know… that BetOnline Sportsbook has payouts around 30 minutes when you use Bitcoin? Fastest payouts online; bar none! They also offer 35% crypto reloads! Click here to sign up today!

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