Chicago Sky at Seattle Storm
Short write up today due to an early tip-off, need to get this written, submitted, and published in time for people to see it and decide if they want to ride along with me or not.
It’s been a few days since I’ve had anything qualify for the WNBA. But I have one today.
My T1 model says the Sky and Storm stay Under the posted total today.
T1 has an overall record of 26-41, Ov/Un.
That’s a 61% Fade, but the real value lies in Unders. When it’s an Under the record is 11-23, a 68% Fade.
Those records are for the entire league, all teams. When I get team specific and look at how each of today’s teams performed when they’re in the spot I get more good news.
Chicago has qualified for a T1 Under twice this season and both games went Over.
Seattle has qualified for a T1 under five times, and four of the five games went Over.
Combined that’s 6-1 to the Over.
Today’s game opened at 179′ and has been bet down to 177′.
For the season, Chicago’s been an Over team at 20-13, Seattle’s breakeven at 18-18 Ov/Un.
Looking at more recent play, only two of the Sky’s last five have gone Over the posted total, same record for the Storm. But when using today’s number, currently at 177′, three of Chicago’s last five have gone Over and four of Seattle’s last five have gone Over.
These two teams played each other just 5 days ago and the total landed on 185. Coincidentally, that’s the same number they combined for in their only other meeting this year.
So, if both previous meetings had that on 185 why is today’s number at 177′ and dropping?
Maybe it’s because Natisha Heideman, the point guard who runs the offense, will be out for Seattle after injuring her shoulder in their last game. But no worries, the combination of Cook and Melbourne should be able to replace Natisha’s 15 PPG.
My play:
Chi/Sea Ov (wait to buy, the numbers dropping)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 26-23
Review:
Banked a W with my last play, Tor/Atl Ov 187. They combined for 202.
It’s been a tough Battle with the Books for the WNBA this season, but I’m finally on the right side of the ledger with a slight profit as we head into the final week of the season
