The St. Louis Cardinals (29-23) continue their East Coast road trip as they face the struggling Baltimore Orioles (17-34) on Monday afternoon at Camden Yards. This interleague matchup features a Cardinals team that has overachieved so far in 2025, against an Orioles squad that has drastically underperformed after being a playoff team last season. The pitching matchup pits Erick Fedde against the winless Charlie Morton, who is looking to turn his season around after a rough start.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Cardinals ML (+110) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Ryan O’Hearn Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) ★★★☆☆
– Value Play: Under 9.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Cardinals vs Orioles Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Cardinals | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Orioles -125, Total 9.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Early sharp action has been relatively split in this matchup, with some professional money coming in on the Cardinals as road underdogs given Morton’s struggles. The total has seen minimal movement, suggesting balanced action on both sides of the 9.5 number.
Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde vs Charlie Morton – Who Has the Edge?
Cardinals: Erick Fedde (3-3, 3.77 ERA)
- 57.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
- 34 strikeouts, 25 walks
- Coming off solid outing against Cubs (6 IP, 2 ER)
- Limiting hard contact (43.2% ground ball rate this season)
Orioles: Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.68 ERA)
- 41 IP, 7.68 ERA, 1.76 WHIP
- 40 strikeouts, 24 walks
- Has allowed 4+ runs in 5 of his 8 starts
- Command issues with 5.3 BB/9 ratio
Advantage: Cardinals
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals bullpen has been solid with a 3.62 ERA (9th in MLB) while the Orioles relief corps has struggled with a 4.89 ERA (23rd). St. Louis has gotten reliable work from their late-inning arms, while Baltimore’s bullpen has been taxed by short outings from their starters. The Cardinals have a clear advantage when it comes to bridging the gap between their starter and the end of the game.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cardinals are 18-12 on the road this season
- Orioles are just 9-16 at Camden Yards
- St. Louis is 14-8 in their last 22 interleague games
- Baltimore is 5-15 in their last 20 games overall
- Cardinals average 4.81 runs per game (8th in MLB)
- Orioles average just 3.82 runs per game (26th in MLB)
- Cardinals are 13-7 in their last 20 games as underdogs
O’Hearn Finding His Stride: Recent Hot Streak Continues
Ryan O’Hearn has been one of the few bright spots for Baltimore, coming off a two-homer game on Sunday against Boston, including an unconventional Little League home run. O’Hearn is batting .289 over his last 14 games and seems to be finding his power stroke at the right time. He could be a tough matchup for Fedde, who has been more vulnerable against left-handed batters this season.
Camden Yards Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Camden Yards remains one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, especially for left-handed power. The ballpark has played slightly more favorable to hitters this season, with a park factor of 104 (100 being neutral). The right field dimensions favor left-handed hitters like O’Hearn and Gunnar Henderson, though the afternoon start time (3:05 PM ET) should limit some of the typical carry compared to night games.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Orioles Showdown
Primary Play: Cardinals ML (+110)
Charlie Morton has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball this season, posting an 0-7 record with a bloated 7.68 ERA. His control issues (24 walks in 41 innings) are particularly concerning against a disciplined Cardinals lineup that ranks in the top 10 in runs scored. Fedde isn’t spectacular, but he’s been reliably average, which is a significant upgrade over what Morton has shown. The Cardinals’ stronger bullpen gives them additional late-game advantage.
Strong Value Play: Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
While Morton has struggled, the Orioles’ offense has been anemic, ranking 26th in runs scored (3.82 per game). The Cardinals should score their share of runs, but I don’t see this turning into a slugfest. Fedde has been effective at limiting damage, and the Orioles have scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 12 games. Additionally, there’s uncertainty surrounding Adley Rutschman’s availability after he exited Sunday’s game with precautionary concerns following a foul tip to his mask.
Worth Considering: Cardinals -1.5 (+185)
For those looking for more value, the Cardinals run line offers an enticing price. Given Morton’s struggles and the Orioles’ offensive limitations, there’s a reasonable path to a multi-run Cardinals victory. St. Louis has won by 2+ runs in 7 of their last 11 victories, making this an intriguing high-reward option.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O’Hearn | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Erick Fedde | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Charlie Morton | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals’ Consistency Trumps Orioles’ Struggles
The Cardinals have been one of baseball’s pleasant surprises in 2025, hovering above .500 despite modest preseason expectations. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a massive disappointment, sitting 17 games under .500 despite coming into the season with playoff aspirations. Morton’s struggles are too significant to ignore, and I don’t trust him to suddenly find his form against a solid Cardinals lineup. St. Louis has been excellent on the road (18-12), while Baltimore has struggled at home (9-16).
Baltimore’s potential absence of Rutschman would be another blow to an already struggling offense. Even if he plays, the Orioles haven’t shown enough consistency to justify their favorite status. I’m taking the Cardinals as road underdogs and think they have a good chance to win outright.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 5, Orioles 3
