St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Pick 5/5/19

by | May 5, 2019 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals (20-13) vs. Chicago Cubs (18-12), 5/5/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Listed Pitchers: Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3,73 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs. Jose Quintana (3-1, 3.48, 1.22)

Moneyline: Cubs -140/Cardinals +130 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: NA

The Cubs shoot for both a sweep of the Cardinals and the takeover of first place in the NL Central on Sunday night baseball at Wrigley Field. How are we betting this contest with our free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Chicago and Quintana at around -135 over St. Louis and Wainwright. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -140.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Set-Up

Chicago took the opener of this series Friday afternoon 4-0, then won Saturday 6-5. The Cubs were only favored by -105 Friday and -120 Saturday but came through twice.

Chicago trailed 5-1 Saturday into the bottom of the fourth inning but tied it on a salami by catcher Taylor Davis. The Cubs then later won the game on a Javier Baez homer in the bottom of the eighth and a perfect ninth-inning save by Pedro Strop.

With Saturday’s victory, the Cubs now own a six-game winning streak.

With Saturday’s loss, the Cardinals own a three-game losing streak.

Big-picture, even though it’s early, 20-13 St. Louis leads the NL Central by a half-game over 18-12 Chicago. So with a win Sunday night the Cubbies would take over first place in the divisional race.

This series is the first meeting this season between these two longtime rivals. Last year the Cardinals took the season series from Chicago 10 games to nine.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Quintana is 3/5 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Saturday he gave up three runs and five hits, including a couple of dongs, through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 Cubbies victory over Arizona. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just five runs and 19 hits through 26 2/3 innings, with 27 strikeouts.

Chicago is 4-1 Quintana this season, 4-0 over his last four starts.

Over four starts last year against St. Louis Quintana gave up 10 earned runs and 21 hits through 19 innings. The Cubs only went 1-3 in those games.

Wainwright is 4/6 on quality starts this season and two for his last two. Tuesday he held Washington to two runs on two solo homers through 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 Cardinals victory. And six days before that he held Milwaukee to one run and four hits through six frames of a 5-2 St. Louis win.

On the season the Cardinals are 4-2 with Wainwright.

Over two starts last year against Chicago Wainwright allowed four ER and nine hits through 10 innings. St. Louis split those two games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

St. Louis is batting just .202/.313/.361 against left-handed pitching this season. The Cardinals have also scored a total of only 14 runs over their last five games, which by our math is less than three per game.

Chicago is batting .262/.353/.457 against right-handed pitching this season. The Cubs have also scored at least six runs in five of their last six games.

The Bullpens

The St. Louis bullpen owns a 3.54 ERA this season, with a 1.11 WHIP and a 134/55 K/BB ratio.

The Chicago bullpen owns a 4.22 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and a 109/61 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 17-13 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Overs are also 17-13 in Cubs games this season.
  • Unders are 8-5 in games played at the Friendly Confines this season.
  • Overs are 3-2 with Quintana this season, mostly thanks to Chicago bats.
  • Unders are 4-1-1 with Wainwright this season, mostly because of him.
  • Overs finished 11-7-1 in Cardinals-Cubs games last season.

Free MLB Pick

This game sets up for a double play on the MLB streak betting method, with Chicago streaking at six wins in a row, St. Louis stumbling with three losses in a row. And while we don’t always abide by that particular betting theory, we’re playing it here. We got the Cubbies for our free MLB pick for Sunday night.

Take the Cubs -140