St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds & Picks 7/24/21

by | Jul 24, 2021 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals (49-49) vs. Cincinnati Reds (50-47)

When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, July 24

Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Moneyline: STL +160/CIN -175

Runline: Cardinals +1.5/Reds -1.5

Total: 9.5

(Risk less on each bet at sportsbooks offering MLB Dimelines)

Starting Pitchers: Jake Woodford (2-1, 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) vs. Luis Castillo (3-10, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)

Toss the Record

Mickey Mantle once said that a pitcher has to be good to lose 20 games because if he isn’t, the manager won’t keep sending him out there. That hasn’t always been the case for Luis Castillo, who struggled through a terrible May, but since then, he’s made things look a lot better when he’s been on the mound. In large part, he hasn’t been getting wins because the Reds have been getting the job done in the latter half of games, but he has improved his pitching substantially since May. After suffering through an ERA around eight during May, he posted a 1.71 ERA in June and currently has a 1.82 ERA in July.

Castillo has only earned the win in two of these ten starts, but the Cardinals have seen enough to know this won’t be the easy win that it was in the early part of the season. In the teams’ third meeting of the season, Castillo was the man on the mound, and the Reds rode him to a 6-4 win, as Castillo only surrendered one run on a solo home run during his nearly-six full innings. A similar performance could lead to him breaking his five-game streak of no-decisions.

Stuck in Place

The Cardinals keep showing signs that they’re going to get this thing back on track, but every time they take a step forward, they follow it with one or two steps back. Unless the opponent has been the truly horrendous Diamondbacks, the Cardinals haven’t managed a winning streak longer than two games since early May, which is one reason why they’ve been stuck hovering around the .500 mark.
St. Louis is stuck in a precarious position right now because the Cardinals have to decide whether to go for the NL Central title and try to chase down Milwaukee or sell the assets they have for next season. Doing nothing seems to be the worst option of the three, yet that might be where the Cards are headed because they can’t seem to decide what they are and how close they are to contending.

Seeing Red

This really isn’t the opponent that St. Louis wants to see at the moment unless the Cardinals are looking to push into the negative side of the ledger and start the selling process. The Reds have been a thorn in the Cardinals’ side this season, winning seven of 11 matchups and five in a row against St. Louis. The last one really has to stick with the Cardinals, as they had the Reds where they wanted them before the bullpen gave up three late runs, turning a 5-3 lead into a 6-5 defeat.

One thing to know about this series: neither team is ever really out of the contest. The past three meetings have all featured major comebacks by the trailing team in the second half of the game, including a seven-run outburst by the Cardinals in the previous meeting that nearly allowed St. Louis to steal it. If you’re betting live on this one, taking the team that’s getting runs on the run line might be the way to maximize profits.

EXPERT PICKS: Get today’s MLB picks from the Pros >>>

Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals are 4-1 in their past five games after a loss.
  • The Cardinals are 9-4 in their past 13 Saturday games.
  • The Reds are 5-2 in their past seven Saturday games.
  • The Reds are 16-6 in their past 22 against the NL Central.
  • The under is 7-3 in the Cardinals’ past ten road games.
  • The under is 7-2-1 in the Cardinals’ past ten games after a loss.
  • The under is 10-4 in the Reds’ past 14 games against a team above .500.
  • The over is 5-2 in the Reds’ past seven home games.
  • The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings in Cincinnati.

Weather Report

It’s going to be humid on the Ohio River, with temperatures at 88 degrees and humidity pushing that to 92. Wind won’t help much; it will only be seven miles per hour heading to third base.

Dan’s Pick

St. Louis believes that it’s still in the race, but Cincinnati has been playing better baseball and has owned this series in recent weeks. The Reds are trying to stay in the race themselves, and they look like they’re the more complete team with more to play for. I’m taking Cincinnati here. Get FREE BETS today! Simply deposit $100 and they’ll give you an additional $100 to play with at BetNow Sportsbook!