Sunday’s Best Bet Alert: Cards vs. Phillies 7/3/22

by | Jul 3, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Sunday, July 3rd, 07:08 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Cardinals +113 / Phillies -135 (BetNow)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

St. Louis: Adam Wainwright (6-5, 3.07) Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.89)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Juan Yepez LF Lars Nootbaar RF Nolan Gorman 2B Dylan Carlson CF Nolan Arenado 3B Ivan Herrera C Paul Goldschmidt 1B Tommy Edman 2B Brendan Donovan RF Adam Wainwright P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Odubel Herrera CF Alec Bohm 3B J.T. Realmuto C Nick Castellanos RF Didi Gregorius SS Bryson Stott 2B Darick Hall 1B Kyle Schwarber LF Rhys Hoskins 1B Zack Wheeler P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

St. Louis Cardinals: 44-36-0 SU / OU 40-36-4 / Run Line W/L 45-35-0 Philadelphia Phillies: 41-38-0 SU / OU 44-33-2 / Run Line W/L 39-40-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, July 3rd at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:08 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 7-6 win over the Phillies. For the game, St. Louis’s pitching staff allowed 6 runs on 12 hits. The Cardinals benefited from an offense that generated 7 runs on 9 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Cardinals and Phillies combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 10.0 runs. St. Louis now has an over-under record of 40-36-4.

The Cardinals are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +9. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.79 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.4. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 25 series played, going 12-6-7.

The Phillies are coming off a tight loss to the Cardinals, dropping the game 7-6. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 9 hits, leading to 7 runs. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 12 hits. Philadelphia came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-125.0). For the season, the team has been favored in 52 games, winning at a rate of 54.0%. The Phillies and Cardinals went over the run total line set at 10.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 44-33-2.

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Even though Philadelphia has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+6). Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 5.8 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.82. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 10-13-2.

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Adam Wainwright (6-5) as their starter. Currently, Wainwright has an ERA of just 3.07 while pitching an average of 6.07 innings per outing. So far, opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, posting a BA of 0.256. This season, Wainwright has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.69 per 9 innings. On the season, Adam Wainwright has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 5.07 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Wainwright is averaging 2.57 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia will roll with Zack Wheeler (6-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Wheeler has lasted an average of 5.79 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.89. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.230. So far, Wheeler has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.56 home runs per 9 innings. Overall, Zack Wheeler has struck out 28% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 6.71 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.11 walks per outing.

St. Louis vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 3rd meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as St. Louis and Philadelphia each have 1 win. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-1, with the average run total sitting at 7.29 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.5 runs. Dating back to last season, Philadelphia picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 2-4. Last year, the Cardinals and Phillies averaged 7.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.0 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games when playing St. Louis
  • Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Sunday night’s matchup between St Louis and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the favorite to pick up the win. In a strong pitching matchup between Adam Wainwright and Zack Wheeler, I give the edge to Wheeler and the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to pick up a big home win over St Louis.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies Moneyline

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