Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 18, 2026
9:30 AM ET, Wembley Stadium, London (NFL Network)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans (-3 at DraftKings), and the total sits at 42.5. My play is Under 42.5.
The Jaguars have been bunking at The Grove outside London for their two-game UK stint, fresh off a 19-17 walk-off win over Philadelphia at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Houston kept a normal week in Texas and doesn’t fly out until Thursday night. Everybody is going to tell you about the travel edge. I’d rather tell you about the two defenses that are about to make 42.5 look a couple of field goals too high.
Houston can’t run, and it picked the worst possible defense to try it against
The Texans average 3.4 yards per carry, which is the third-worst in the league according to TeamRankings, and David Montgomery is doubtful with a groin injury after managing just 2.7 yards a pop. Now they run into the NFL’s stingiest run defense. Jacksonville allows 2.9 yards per carry, and Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker set the edge like a pair of brick walls.
That means C.J. Stroud has to carry this offense on his arm. He’s playing well (“I think I’m in a good rhythm right now distributing the ball to who I need to get it to,” he said after the Titans win), and Nico Collins is Nico Collins. But Marvin Harrison Jr., acquired Sunday from Arizona for second- and sixth-round picks, gets only a handful of practices with his old Ohio State teammate before kickoff. Expecting him to change the game in London this week is wishful thinking.
The Jaguars just lost their left tackle, and Will Anderson Jr. noticed
Here’s what keeps Jacksonville’s offense in check. Left tackle Anton Harrison went on injured reserve with a knee injury, so sixth-year vet Walker Little gets the blind side against Anderson, who already has 7.5 sacks, including three last week in Tennessee. Houston gets home 3.6 times per game, second-most in football, and nflfastR play-by-play shows the Texans allow a successful pass play less often than all but one defense in the league.
“I think rushing together, that’s what makes this engine go,” Anderson said. With Danielle Hunter on the other side and DeMeco Ryans willing to line up four ends at once, Trevor Lawrence is going to spend a lot of Sunday afternoon throwing on time or eating turf.
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Field goals, not fireworks
Jacksonville’s games have gone Under four times in five tries, and that’s mostly the defense’s doing: the Jaguars give up 14.0 points per game, second-best in the NFL. Even the offense has been settling. Against the Eagles they moved the ball at will and still came away with zero touchdowns on three trips inside the 20, including two empty visits to the 1-yard line. Add in a brand-new long snapper after All-Pro Ross Matiscik hurt his shoulder, and Liam Coen has every reason to play it tight and trust his defense.
Houston, meanwhile, has held its last three opponents to 18.7 points per game. These two clubs split last year with 17-10 and 36-29 finishes, and the last time the Texans came to Wembley, in 2019, they won 26-3 against these same Jaguars. This matchup has a habit of turning ugly for one offense.
The case against me
Jacksonville’s pass defense is the soft spot. It’s allowing 7.5 yards per attempt, 27th in the league, and Stroud has the arm and Collins has the hands to punish it. Houston also played early shootouts against Buffalo and Dallas, so this offense can light up the scoreboard when the game breaks open. And Jacksonville takes the ball away a lot (third in turnover margin), so a couple of short fields could hand out cheap points. I’ll take that risk at 42.5, and I’d keep playing it down to 41.
Projected score: Jaguars 20, Texans 16. Jacksonville gets its 20 the hard way, with Cam Little doing plenty of the lifting, and Houston’s offense spends the afternoon stuck in the mud.
The Pick: Under 42.5
Two defenses with something to prove and a 9:30 AM ET kickoff that’s perfect with your coffee. Grab the Under early and bring some extra bankroll into Sunday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under 42.5 and the rest of your Week 6 NFL picks.
