Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Analysis & Picks

by | Aug 15, 2020 | mlb

Texas Rangers (9-9) vs. Colorado Rockies (12-7)

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (0-2, 4.11 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) vs. German Marquez (2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

When: 8:10 p.m., Saturday, August 15

Where: Coors Field, Denver

Moneyline: TEX +151/COL -162 (BetOnline - Awesome live betting platform!)

Runline: Rangers +1.5/Rockies -1.5

Total: 11.5

Revenge Game

German Marquez really deserved better from the first time he faced the Rangers. Despite giving up just one earned run in 5.2 innings, Marquez became the answer to the trivia question, “Who was the losing pitcher in the first game at Globe Life Field?” because the Rockies gave him no offensive support in a 1-0 loss in Arlington.

But Texas isn’t anywhere close to the same team on the road, and Marquez is an effective hurler in just about any ballpark. The one exception seems to be Seattle, but even there, only two of the five runs Marquez surrendered were earned. On the year, Marquez has allowed just eight earned runs while striking out 27 batters in 26 innings. This time, he gets to pitch at home against a Texas lineup that has proven to be rather weak (the Rangers hit just .218 as a team and rank only above the punchless Indians and the COVID-affected Marlins and Cardinals for total bases) and ineffective away from home, and the Rockies’ offense doesn’t have to worry about facing Texas ace, Lance Lynn. In short, this sets up well for Marquez and Colorado.

Consistently Inconsistent

Which is the real Kyle Gibson? Is it the strikeout artist who fanned nine Oakland hitters in six innings? Is it the strong hurler who didn’t allow a single earned run against Arizona, getting victimized by defensive lapses in the loss? Or is it the pitcher who got tattooed by Seattle for nine hits and four earned runs, striking out just two hitters?

The truth probably lies somewhere in there, as Gibson tries to adjust to his new surroundings after spending seven seasons in Minnesota. Gibson was known as a power pitcher in the Twin Cities, but when he’s not missing bats, he’s proven to be rather hittable. He’s only managed an ERA under 4 in one of his past four seasons, and even though the West is now full of pitchers’ parks with the Rangers opening their new facility, his ERA remains over four as he heads to Coors Field.

Given that the Rockies lead the majors in batting average and Coors Field has consistently been a high-scoring ballpark, this is probably the last place that Gibson needs to be right now. But that said, Texas has been playing much better as of late, winning six of its past seven games, including a 3-2 win over the Rockies on Friday. However, that success has not extended to Gibson; the Rangers are 0-3 in games where he’s gone to the hill.

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Low-Scoring Starts

In three of the teams’ four meetings between these teams, there hasn’t been much offense to speak of in the first five innings. Only once have the teams combined to score more than three runs in the first five innings, and that game still wasn’t all that high-scoring, as the squads combined for five runs in the first five innings.

Because of that, I think the under is going to have value for the first five innings. A total of 11.5 says that the first five total will probably be around 5.5 or 6, and the presence of Marquez on the mound should keep the score down even if Gibson continues to struggle. I think there’s a good chance that there’s far fewer runs than people expect.

I also think Gibson’s strikeout total might be a bit inflated for this game. Gibson is averaging five strikeouts a game, but the Rockies don’t strike out all that often. I think Gibson could struggle in this matchup, so I’d take an under on his strikeouts if you can get under 4.5.

Betting Trends

  • The Rangers are 2-5 in their past seven against the NL West.
  • The Rangers are 2-8 in their past ten as a road underdog.
  • The Rockies have won Game 2 in their past seven series.
  • The Rockies have won 15 of their past 21 games.
  • The over is 7-1 in the Rangers’ past eight road games.
  • The under is 5-0 in the Rockies’ past five Saturday games.
  • The under is 6-2-1 in the Rockies’ past nine games as a favorite.
  • The Rangers have won four straight against the Rockies.

Weather Report

The heat will be a major factor in Denver, as a 96-degree day is in the forecast for Colorado’s capital.

Dan’s Pick

Texas has picked up its play in recent games, but the Rangers have only really had sustained success at home. When Texas goes on the road, the Rangers have their problems, and Colorado is well-positioned to take full advantage. The Rockies have an ace on the hill in Marquez, and they hit the ball much better than the Rangers do. Bet this weekend’s MLB picks FREE by depositing $100 and getting an extra $100 added to your account at MyBookie Sportsbook! This bonus actually extends up to as much as $300 if you wanna do more! Must use this link to sign up and use bonus/promo code PREDICT100 to receive the bonus!