Today’s Best Bet: Phillies vs. Mets

by | May 29, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Date: Sunday, May 29th, 07:08 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Phillies +100 / Mets -120 (Get Better Lines >>>)
Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.38)
New York: Chris Bassitt (4-2, 3.91)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Odubel Herrera CF
Jean Segura 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Johan Camargo SS
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Zack Wheeler P

Mets Projected Lineup

Eduardo Escobar 3B
Jeff McNeil 2B
Mark Canha LF
Starling Marte RF
Dominic Smith LF
Tomás Nido C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Chris Bassitt P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 21-26-0 SU / OU 25-20-2 / Run Line W/L 23-24-0
New York Mets: 31-17-0 SU / OU 24-21-3 / Run Line W/L 28-20-0

The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, May 29th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:08 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Phillies come into this matchup having suffered a 6-run loss to the NY Mets (8-2). In the loss, Philadelphia’s pitchers gave up 8 runs on 10 hits. On offense, the Phillies finished with 7 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -101.0. Through 28 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 46.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result being part of a larger trend, as Philadelphia has the over has hit in more than half of their games (25-20-2).

Over the Phillies’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -10. In their last 5 contests, Philadelphia is averaging 4.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.51. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 4-10-1.

The New York Mets will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated Phillies by 6 runs (8-2). In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on hits 7 hits. At the plate, the Mets scored 8 times on 10 hits. New York picked up the win while being favored at -109.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 42 games, winning at a rate of 67.0%. The Mets and Phillies went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 24-21-3.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 11. Compared to their season average, the Mets come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 8.8 runs per game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 12-2-1.

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Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Zack Wheeler (3-3) as their starter. To date, Wheeler has an ERA of 3.38 while lasting an average of 5.64 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.246. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Wheeler, as he is allowing just 0.4 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Zack Wheeler has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.0%, including a per-game average of 6.37. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.99 walks per contest.

New York will roll with Chris Bassitt (4-2) as their starter. So far, Bassitt has put together an ERA of 3.91. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.89 innings. So far, Bassitt has a batting average allowed of 0.238. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Bassitt, averaging 1.53 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Chris Bassitt is averaging 5.8, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for Bassitt, as he is giving up 2.72 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will be their 11th meeting of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 8-3. Through 11th games, the series’ over-under record is 5-5-1, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.82 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, the Phillies and Mets averaged 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia’s last 10 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets’s last 5 games
  • NY Mets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Sunday night’s AL East showdown between Philadelphia and New York, the Mets are the slight favorite to pick up the win. As often as New York and Philadelphia have played each other, Zack Wheeler has just 1 start vs the Mets. In that outing, he went 4 and 2/3 of an inning while giving up 1 run. On the other side, Chris Bassitt was also solid in his lone start vs the Phillies, giving up just 1 run and picking up the win. Look for the Mets to keep things rolling at home.

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