Today’s Free MLB Pick: Guardians vs. Astros

by | Last updated May 23, 2022 | mlb

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros
Date: Monday, May 23rd, 08:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes
Money Line: Guardians +160 / Astros -195
Total Line: 8.5
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Cleveland: Triston McKenzie (2-3, 2.97)
Houston: Luis Garcia (3-2, 3.35)

Guardians Projected Lineup

Amed Rosario SS
Andrés Giménez SS
Josh Naylor RF
Steven Kwan CF
Franmil Reyes RF
José Ramírez 3B
Austin Hedges C
Owen Miller 1B
Myles Straw CF
Triston McKenzie P

Astros Projected Lineup

Jeremy Peña SS
Chas McCormick LF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Kyle Tucker RF
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Michael Brantley LF
Luis Garcia P


Cleveland Guardians: 17-20-0 SU / OU 20-17-0 / Run Line W/L 18-19-0
Houston Astros: 27-15-0 SU / OU 11-31-0 / Run Line W/L 22-20-0

The Houston Astros host the Cleveland Guardians on Monday, May 23rd at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-195), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Guardians come into this game having suffered a 4-2 loss to Detroit. Cleveland’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 7 hits, leading to 4 runs. With their 6 hits, the Guardians could only muster 2 runs. Guardians suffered the loss, despite being favored at -180.0. Through 13 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 62.0%. Combined, the Guardians and Detroit fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.0 runs. However, for the season, Cleveland still has an overall over-under record of (20-17-0).

The Guardians will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -2. Cleveland’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Cleveland’s overall series record is just 4-5-4.

Houston is coming off a 3-run win over the Rangers (5-2). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Rangers to 2 runs and 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 8 hits. Houston picked up the win while being favored at -200.0. So far, the team has won 70.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Astros and the Rangers combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 11-31-0.

Across their last 5 contests, the Astros are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of 1 (last 5). Houston has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 2.6 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 4.29. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 7-5-1.

Pitching Matchup

Cleveland will roll with Triston McKenzie (2-3) as their starter. To date, McKenzie has an ERA of 2.97 while lasting an average of 5.16 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.19 against McKenzie. McKenzie is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.75 per 9 innings. Per game, Triston McKenzie is averaging 4.85, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for McKenzie, as he is giving up 2.72 walks per outing.

Houston will roll with Luis Garcia (3-2) as their starter. To date, Garcia has an ERA of 3.35 while lasting an average of 5.31 innings per appearance. Through 7 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.201. Home runs have been a concern for Garcia as he is allowing 1.45 per 9 innings. On the season, Luis Garcia has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 27.0%, while averaging 5.85 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.87 walks per outing.

Cleveland vs Houston History

Today’s game between Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros is their matchup of the year. Dating back to last season, the Houston picked up 6 wins compared to 1, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-3, with the average scoring differential sitting at 2.57 runs. Between the games, the average run total was 8.29 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 6 games
  • Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros Prediction

In today’s matchup between Cleveland and Houston, I recommend taking the Guardians to cover the runline at +1.5 runs. Throughout the season, Cleveland has hit the ball well vs right-handed pitching, posting the 2nd best team batting average. In addition, Triston McKenzie has thrown the ball well for the Guardians, giving up just 5 runs across his last 3 outings.

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