Today’s MLB Picks: Mariners vs. Astros 5/3/22

by | Last updated May 3, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Date: Tuesday, May 3rd, 08:10 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-SW

Money Line: Mariners +133 / Astros -144

Total Line: 8.5
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Seattle: Chris Flexen (1-3, 3.38)
Houston: Cristian Javier (1-0, 1.35)

White Sox Projected Lineup

1B Gavin Sheets
2B Josh Harrison
CF Luis Robert
LF AJ Pollock
3B Jake Burger
1B José Abreu
C Yasmani Grandal
SS Tim Anderson
LF Andrew Vaughn

Cubs Projected Lineup

3B Patrick Wisdom
CF Jason Heyward
RF Seiya Suzuki
1B Alfonso Rivas
SS Nico Hoerner
C Willson Contreras
LF Ian Happ
RF Rafael Ortega
3B Jonathan Villar


Seattle Mariners: 12-11-0 SU / OU 11-12-0 / Run Line W/L 14-9-0
Houston Astros: 12-11-0 SU / OU 7-16-0 / Run Line W/L 11-12-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, May 3rd at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Mariners will look to bounce back from a tough loss to Houston by the score of 3-0. The loss came as Seattle was the betting underdogs, getting 127.0. Through 13 games as the underdog, the team has a win percentage of 38.0%. On their way to giving up 3 runs, the Seattle pitching staff allowed a total of 8 hits. Offensively, the team generated a total of 5 hits of their own. Combined, the Mariners and Houston fell short of the over-under betting line of 9.0 runs. So far, Seattle has been a good candidate to fall below the betting lines, as their over-under record sits at just 11-12-0.

The Mariners will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 1-4 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. A key reason for Seattle’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.43. Seattle’s overall series record is just 3-4-1.

Houston will look to keep things rolling as they are coming off a 3-0 win over Seattle. In the game, Houston was able to take care of business as they were the favorites at -137.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 16 games, winning at a rate of 56%. Offensively, Houston came up with 8 hits, while the team’s pitching staff allowed 5 hits, leading to 0 runs. With this result, Astros and Seattle combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 7-16-0.

In their last 5 games, the Astros have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 6. Offensively, Houston’s lineup has been steady 4.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per-game average of 3.70. Houston has a below .500 series record of just 3-4-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Mariners, Chris Flexen gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-3. To date, Flexen has an ERA of 3.38 while lasting an average of 6.0 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.250. Despite opposing team’s finding success getting on base against Flexen, he has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing 0.75 home runs per 9 innings. Up to this point, Flexen’s has a strikeout percentage of 15.6% and a per 9 average of 6.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.5 walks per contest.

For the Astros, Cristian Javier gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-0. Heading into his matchup vs. Seattle, Javier has a strong ERA, sitting at just 1.35. This has come while averaging 3.27 innings per appearance. On the season, opposing team’s have put together a batting average of 0.196 against Javier. In addition, teams are hitting home runs at a below-average rate against him. So far, he has a HR/9 figure of just 0.68. A strength of Cristian Javier’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 31.4%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 0.75 walks per contest.

Seattle vs Houston History

So far, the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners have met up 4 times. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Seattle and Houston each have 2 wins. Through 4 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-2, with the average run total sitting at 9.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.5 runs. Dating back to last season, the Houston picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. In these 18 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-7. Last year, Houston and Seattle averaged 9.37 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.79 runs per contest.

More Picks: White Sox at Cubs 5/3/22 Game Analysis & Prediction >>>

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 7 games

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

In this matchup, I recommend going with the Mariners to pick up the road win. Even though Cristian Javier is off to a strong start on the mound, Seattle’s offense has been good against right-handed pitching, ranking 6th in runs scored. I recommend taking the Mariners on the moneyline.

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