Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Pick 8/13/21
When: 10:10 p.m., Friday, August 13
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Moneyline: TOR -170/SEA +150
Runline: Blue Jays -1.5/Mariners +1.5
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Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs. Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
We’ve seen this matchup before during the last series these teams played against each other, and the pitching matchup suggests that this could be another low-scoring first-five. The Mariners didn’t get to Robbie Ray until the sixth inning when the teams faced off in Buffalo, scoring three runs off him in the sixth inning and getting nothing else.
That was enough to not make a loser out of Chris Flexen, who left with the score tied. But the Seattle bullpen couldn’t hold off the Jays forever, and a 3-3 game ended up as a 9-3 blowout. Other than one nightmare against Houston, though, Flexen has been a solid starter this season, and he’s been especially sharp at home. With Ray also pitching pretty well, this seems like a good time to play the under for the first five.
There’s no doubt about it now: these teams are in a playoff fight. It’s been a while since the Mariners were genuinely in the chase for the postseason, and anything less than a series win here would make their presence in this race iffy at best. Seattle took a step toward getting back on the right track by winning two of three at home against the Rangers, but the four-game skid they took last week has left the M’s in a precarious position.
Toronto, on the other hand, has seemingly recognized the urgency. The Jays haven’t lost a series to anyone since July 25 against the Mets, and they’re 13-6 since that trip to Queens. The Jays have a bit more of a margin for error because they play 23 of their final 48 games against decided non-contenders Baltimore, Detroit and Minnesota, but they’re also out of chances against Boston, which means they’d be wise not to blow the advantage their schedule provides. The Mariners are in a much tougher situation: just 15 of their last 46 are against teams that don’t have any hope of reaching the playoffs.
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Offense on the Road?
Toronto’s young, talented lineup has been a joy to watch, but that’s only been the case when the Jays are actually playing in their “home” park. It’s kind of strange, given that Toronto has had three different homes this season and actually joked about whether Toronto was even a real place after spending the past 1.5 seasons in the United States, but the Jays have averaged almost a full run less on the road (4.72 runs per game) compared to at home.
Toronto’s offense isn’t bad away from “home”, but it’s not as explosive as usual, and that’s likely to increase in Seattle’s cavernous park. The Mariners give up less than four runs per game at home, and they’re likely to be focused on keeping the score down, given how Toronto bested them earlier this year.
- The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their past 12 as a road favorite.
- The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their past five games after a loss.
- The Mariners are 7-1 in their past eight Friday games.
- The Mariners are 2-5 in their past seven overall.
- The over is 4-1 in the Blue Jays’ past five games overall.
- The under is 9-4 in the Blue Jays’ past 13 road games.
- The under is 8-1 in the Mariners’ past nine games overall.
- The under is 4-1 in the Mariners’ past five games against a left-handed starter.
- The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Seattle.
- The Mariners are 6-2 in the past eight meetings with the Blue Jays.
With temperatures pushing 90 degrees in the Pacific Northwest and the wind only blowing at five miles per hour toward the first-base dugout, look for the Mariners to close the roof.
With these pitchers on the mound, I think the first-five under is the best bet, as the Blue Jays have shown a tendency to score in the later innings and the Mariners have struggled to close out games. I trust Flexen a heck of a lot more than I do the Seattle bullpen, and I think he’ll provide five or six solid innings before the Mariners have to get him out of there.
When they do, I really don’t like Seattle’s chances. The rest of the staff seems overwhelmed by the increased expectations, and I don’t think they’re ready to face a team like the Blue Jays. Give me Toronto here. Bet your MLB picks FREE today by depositing $25 and getting an extra $50 FREE at Intertops Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code ROOKIE200 after making your deposit).
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