Total Bet: Phillies vs. Mets 5/1/22

by | Last updated May 1, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Date: Sunday, May 1st, 7:08 PM ET
Location: Citi Field
Money Line: Phillies +155 / Mets -185 (BetNow)
Total Line: 7


Philadelphia: Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.2) New York: Max Scherzer (3-0, 1.8)


Philadelphia Phillies: 11-11-0 SU / OU 10-10-2 / Run Line W/L 11-11-0 New York Mets: 15-7-0 SU / OU 8-11-3 / Run Line W/L 14-8-0

The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, May 1st at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 4:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 7.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Philadelphia will be looking to tack on another win after taking down the NY Mets by the score of 4-1. Heading into this game, Philadelphia was the betting underdogs with a moneyline of 118. Through 16 games as the favorite, the team has won at a rate of 56%. On offense, Philadelphia’s lineup put together a total of 6 hits, while the pitching staff allowed 1 run on 4 hits. Combined, the Phillies and NY Mets fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. With this result, Philadelphia’s over-under record dropped back to .500 10-10-2.

The Phillies are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 17. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.6 runs per game compared to their season average at 4.55. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 2-4-1.

The Mets will be looking to move on from a tough loss to Philadelphia by the score of 4-1. This was a disappointing loss for the Mets, as they were favored to win at -127.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 19 games, winning at a rate of 74.0%. For the game, New York’s staff gave up 4 runs, on 6 hits, while on offense, New York came up with 4 hits leading to 1 run. With this result, the Mets and Philadelphia combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 8-11-3.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 1. New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.4 runs per game compared their season average of 4.45. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 6-0-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Phillies, Zach Eflin gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-1. To date, Eflin has an ERA of 3.2 while lasting an average of 4.8 innings per appearance. Through 4 starts, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.243. Not only does Eflin have a strong batting average allowed figure, but he has also avoided giving up home runs, averaging just 0.46 home runs allowed per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Eflin’s has a strikeout percentage of 18.8% and a per 9 average of 7.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.0 walks per contest.

For the Mets, Max Scherzer gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 3-0. Heading into his matchup vs Philadelphia, Scherzer has a strong ERA, sitting at just 1.8. This has come while averaging 6.25 innings per appearance. On the season, opposing team’s have put together a batting average of 0.131 against Scherzer. In addition, opponents are hitting home runs at a below-average at rate against him. So far, he has an HR/9 figure of just 0.36. A strength of Max Scherzer’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 35.1%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 2.0 walks per contest.

Key Injuries

Philadelphia Phillies Ryan Sherriff: Shoulder (60-DAY IL) Sam Coonrod: Shoulder (60-DAY IL) Mickey Moniak: Hand (10-DAY IL) Rafael Alejandro Marchan: Hamstring (60-DAY IL) Kent Emanuel: Elbow (60-DAY IL) JoJo Romero: Elbow (60-DAY IL)

New York Mets Sean Reid-Foley: Elbow (QUESTIONABLE) Jacob deGrom: Shoulder (10-DAY IL) John Curtiss: Elbow (60-DAY IL) Joey Lucchesi: Elbow (60-DAY IL)

Philadelphia vs New York History

So far, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have met up 4 times, with New York winning the season series 3-2. Through 4 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-3, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.4 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, New York and Philadelphia averaged 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
  • Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss.
  • Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction

With Max Scherzer on the mound, New York are the heavy favorites to bounce back from a loss in last night’s game. Even though the Phillies have performed well against right-handed pitching, a matchup with Scherzer is a different story. However, I don’t feel comfortable grabbing New York on the runline as Zach Eflin has a FIP of just 2.95, suggesting he has pitched even better than his ERA suggests. I recommend going with the under at 7 runs.

Free Pick:

Under 7 Runs

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