Total Line Bet: Blue Jays vs. Yankees 5/10/22

by | May 10, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Date: Tuesday, May 10th, 07:05 ET

Location: Yankee Stadium

TV: YES

Money Line: Blue Jays 122 / Yankees -145 (BAS - Home of discounted baseball odds!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Toronto: Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.35)
New York: Luis Severino (2-0, 3.75)

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

C Zack Collins
C Alejandro Kirk
1B Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
3B Matt Chapman
2B Santiago Espinal
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RF Teoscar Hern√°ndez
CF George Springer
SS Bo Bichette

Yankees Projected Lineup

2B Gleyber Torres
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
1B Anthony Rizzo
3B DJ LeMahieu
C Kyle Higashioka
3B Josh Donaldson
RF Giancarlo Stanton
CF Aaron Hicks
RF Aaron Judge

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Toronto Blue Jays: 17-13-0 SU / OU 12-18-0 / Run Line W/L 12-18-0
New York Yankees: 20-8-0 SU / OU 10-18-0 / Run Line W/L 15-13-0

The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, May 10th at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Guardians (4-3), the Blue Jays will look to get back in the win column. Toronto’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. Offensively, they finished with just 3 runs on 4 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -200.0. Through 21 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 62.0%. Combined, the Blue Jays and Guardians fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. With this result, Toronto’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 12-18-0.

The Blue Jays will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This mark has come on a an average run margin of just -2. In their last 5 contests, Toronto is averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.83. So far, Toronto has won over half of their 9 series played, going 6-2-1.

The Yankees are coming off a tight 1-0 win over the Rangers. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held Rangers’s to 0 runs on 6 hits. With their 5 hits, the Yankees could only muster 3 runs. In the game, New York was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -225.0. So far, the team has won 70.0% of their games in which they were favored. With this result, the Yankees and Rangers combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Now, New York had an OU mark of 10-18-0.

In their last 5 games, the Yankees have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 7. New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.43. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 7-1-1.

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Pitching Matchup

For the Blue Jays, Yusei Kikuchi gets the start. Heading into action, he has a record of 1-1. To date, Kikuchi has an ERA of 4.35 while lasting an average of 4.04 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.234. In addition to a high a batting average allowed, opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Kikuchi, averaging 1.78 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Kikuchi has a strikeout percentage of just 22.0% and a per game average of 4.0. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 6.1 walks per outing.

New York will send Luis Severino to the mound with a record of 2-0. Severino comes into this game with an ERA of 3.75. So far, he is averaging 4.8 innings per outing. Opposing teams have been able to string together hit against Severino, with a batting average allowed of 0.255. Not only are opposing teams getting on base through hits at an above average rate, they are also doing damage through home runs. So far, Severino is allowing 1.12 homers per 9 innings pitched. For the season, Luis Severino has come up with 4.6 K’s per outing. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 2.62 walks per contest.

Toronto vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will be their 7th meeting of the season, with New York winning the season series 4-3. Through 7 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-5, with the average run total sitting at 7.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.14 runs. Going back to last year, Toronto won the season series, 11 games to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 6-12. Last year, the Blue Jays and Yankees averaged 7.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.79 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto’s last 14 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
  • NY Yankees is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
  • NY Yankees is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Prediction

In this matchup between Toronto and New York, I recommend taking the over at 7 runs. Even though the Yankees scored just 1 run in their last game, look for them to have a good night at the plate against Yusei Kikuchi. Even though his ERA is respectable at 4.35, his expected ERA (5.27) and FIP (5.69) suggests he has been pitching worse than overall stats suggest. Look for a big scoring night from New York to push this one over 7 runs.

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