Twins vs. Guardians Pick & Analysis 6-27-22

by | Last updated Jun 27, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians
Date: Monday, June 27th, 07:10 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: Bally Sports North
Money Line: Twins -120 / Guardians 100
Total Line: 8.5
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Minnesota: Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.53)
Cleveland: Triston McKenzie (4-5, 3.51)

Twins Projected Lineup

Nick Gordon LF
Gio Urshela 3B
Gary Sánchez C
Max Kepler RF
Alex Kirilloff 1B
Jose Miranda 1B
Carlos Correa SS
Luis Arraez 2B
Byron Buxton CF
Sonny Gray P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Andrés Giménez 2B
Austin Hedges C
Oscar Gonzalez RF
Franmil Reyes LF
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan LF
Amed Rosario SS
Triston McKenzie P


Minnesota Twins: 41-33-0 SU / OU 34-35-5 / Run Line W/L 33-41-0
Cleveland Guardians: 36-32-0 SU / OU 33-30-5 / Run Line W/L 37-31-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on Monday, June 27th at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Minnesota as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In their most recent game, Minnesota picked up a 3 run win over the Rockies (6-3). On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 3 runs on 12 hits. The Twins lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 10 hits, leading to 6 runs. Heading into their last game, Minnesota was the betting favorite at -210.0. Through 52 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 62.0%. With the over-under line set at 8.5 runs, the Twins and Rockies combined to go over this total. The Twins now have an over-under record of 34-35-5.

The Twins come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +8. Minnesota’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.43. So far, Minnesota has won over half of their 23 series played, going 12-7-4.

Cleveland will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Red Sox by the score of 8-3. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Guardians staff allowed 15 hits. At the plate, the Guardians only came through for 3 runs on 8 hits. Cleveland dropped the game despite being favored at -110.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 32 games, winning at a rate of 66.0%. The Guardians and Red Sox went over the run total line set at 9.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 33-30-5.

The Guardians come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -10 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate (3.8) similar to their season-long average of 4.53. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 11-8-4.


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Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send Sonny Gray to the mound with an overall record of 3-1. Currently, Gray has an ERA of just 2.53 while pitching an average of 4.69 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.21 against him. Gray is giving up home runs a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.85 per 9 innings. This season, he has struck out 27.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per-game average of 5.11. Throughout the season, Gray has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.11 per contest.

In today’s game, Cleveland turns to starter Triston McKenzie. For the year, he has a record of 4-5. So far, McKenzie has put together an ERA of 3.51. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.7 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.204 against McKenzie. Despite a strong batting average allowed, McKenzie is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.7 homers per 9 innings pitched. Overall, Triston McKenzie has struck out 22.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.08 K’s per game. McKenzie comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.42 free passes per outing.

Minnesota vs Cleveland History

Today’s matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians will be their 7th meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Minnesota and Cleveland each have 3 wins. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-3. The average run total in these games is 8.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.67 runs. Last season, Minnesota picked up the series win, 11 games to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Twins and Guardians averaged 8.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.58 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
  • Cleveland is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Monday’s AL Central matchup between Minnesota and Cleveland, the Twins hold a 2 game lead in the division. Look for the Twins to pick up the win in the series opener, as in their last meeting vs Triston McKenzie they tagged him for 6 runs in just 4 1/3 innings.

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