The New York Yankees (77-62) and Houston Astros (77-63) conclude their contentious three-game series Thursday night at Daikin Park following Wednesday’s dramatic 8-7 Astros comeback win that featured ejections, questionable umpiring, and late-inning fireworks. With ace lefty Carlos Rodon facing Cristian Javier in his return from Tommy John surgery, this rubber match has all the makings of another tense chapter in baseball’s most compelling rivalry. After analyzing the pitching matchup and recent trends, I’ve identified several betting angles worth targeting in what should be a fascinating series finale.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-143) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Game Total Under 8.5 (-105) ★★★☆☆
New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Yankees | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -143 | +120 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+120) | +1.5 (-140) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Yankees -140, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Early money has slightly pushed the Yankees line from -140 to -143, indicating steady professional support behind Rodon and New York to bounce back after Wednesday’s crushing bullpen collapse. The total has ticked up from 8 to 8.5, suggesting some sharp action on the over despite Rodon’s strong recent form. This could be a response to Wednesday’s slugfest and lingering questions about Houston’s bullpen depth with Josh Hader sidelined.
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon vs Cristian Javier – Who Has the Edge?
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (15-7, 3.18 ERA)
- Enjoying a strong bounce-back season after disappointing 2024 campaign
- Outstanding 177 strikeouts in 164.1 innings with 1.08 WHIP
- Dominant road pitcher with 2.79 ERA away from Yankee Stadium
- Has thrown 6+ innings in 7 straight starts (quality starts in 6 of 7)
Houston Astros: Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA)
- Only 16 innings pitched this season after returning from Tommy John surgery
- Control issues evident with 9 walks in 16 innings
- Velocity down 1-2 mph from pre-surgery levels
- Unlikely to work deep into the game (hasn’t exceeded 75 pitches in any outing)
Advantage: Significant edge to Yankees. Rodon is pitching at an ace level while Javier remains limited in his recovery from major surgery. The workload disparity alone creates a substantial advantage for New York.
Bullpen Breakdown
After Wednesday’s meltdown that saw Devin Williams and Camilo Doval combine to surrender four eighth-inning runs, the Yankees bullpen is suddenly under intense scrutiny. However, their season-long numbers remain strong, and David Bednar should be well-rested and available for the ninth inning. The Astros are navigating their own bullpen challenges with Josh Hader on the IL (shoulder), forcing Bryan Abreu into the closer role. While Abreu survived Wednesday’s ninth inning, he surrendered a three-run homer to Cody Bellinger and looked vulnerable. With neither team inspiring complete confidence in their late-inning options right now, the starting pitching advantage becomes even more crucial in this matchup.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall but just lost their first game at Daikin Park after winning 8 straight there
- Carlos Rodon is 7-2 with a 2.41 ERA in his last 10 starts
- The Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 43-31 at home this season
- New York’s offense ranks 2nd in MLB with 1.71 HR/game while Houston sits 17th with 1.10 HR/game
- The Yankees are 11-17 ATS in Rodon’s starts this season despite his strong performance
- The Astros have scored 4+ runs in 7 of their last 8 games
- Yordan Alvarez is hitting .483 (14-for-29) with 8 walks since returning to Houston’s lineup
Aaron Judge vs. Cristian Javier: Matchup to Watch
Aaron Judge continues his MVP-caliber season, leading MLB in batting average (.323), on-base percentage (.440), and slugging percentage (.666). Judge has shown tremendous plate discipline against pitchers returning from injury, as they often struggle with command. With Javier having issued 9 walks in 16 innings since his return, Judge should get pitches to hit or take free passes. This matchup heavily favors the Yankees’ slugger, making his over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop particularly appealing.
Daikin Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid Park) plays essentially neutral for overall run scoring (1.000 park factor) but does boost home runs significantly with a 1.061 HR factor. The Crawford Boxes in left field present a tempting target for right-handed power hitters like Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. However, Rodon’s ability to generate ground balls (45.3% this season) helps neutralize the park’s home run tendency. While the venue’s dimensions could create excitement on well-hit fly balls, the caliber of starting pitching—particularly Rodon—should be the more significant factor in tonight’s outcome.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Yankees-Astros Showdown
Primary Play: Yankees Moneyline (-143)
I’m backing the Yankees to bounce back after Wednesday’s heartbreaker. Carlos Rodon gives them a significant edge over a limited Cristian Javier, who simply isn’t stretched out enough to match Rodon’s workload. New York’s offense should get to Javier early, forcing Houston to rely on a bullpen that has shown vulnerability. The price is reasonable for the pitching advantage alone, and I expect the Yankees to avoid another late-inning collapse with Bednar available to close things out.
Strong Value Play: Total Under 8.5 (-105)
While Wednesday’s game featured 15 total runs, I expect the pitching to regain control tonight. Rodon has been consistently excellent, working deep into games and limiting damage. The Astros will likely handle Javier carefully in his return from Tommy John surgery, and their bullpen performed admirably before the 9th inning yesterday. Despite the offensive firepower on both sides, this feels like a game that settles into a 4-2 or 5-3 type of contest—staying under the total.
Worth Considering: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150)
Judge is the best hitter in baseball right now, and he faces a pitcher still finding his footing after major surgery. Javier’s command issues play right into Judge’s disciplined approach, making this prop my favorite player bet in the game. Judge has cleared this number in 8 of his last 11 games, and his career numbers against the Astros are exceptional. While the juice is heavy at -150, the probability of hitting makes it worthwhile.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | -150 | ★★★★☆ |
| Carlos Rodon | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Yordan Alvarez | Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | -120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Cristian Javier | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | To Hit a Home Run | +370 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees’ Pitching Advantage Should Prevail
After Wednesday’s chaotic affair that featured ejections, blown calls, and a stunning comeback, I expect the Yankees to regroup behind their ace Carlos Rodon. The contrast between a fully-stretched out Rodon and a limited Cristian Javier makes this a clear pitching mismatch that should ultimately decide the game. While Houston’s lineup is dangerous—particularly with Yordan Alvarez looking rejuvenated—Rodon has the arsenal and experience to navigate the Astros’ lineup effectively. Look for the Yankees to claim the series with a professional bounce-back performance in what should be a more controlled, lower-scoring affair than yesterday’s wild contest.
Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Astros 3
