The New York Yankees (65-57) head into the second game of their weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals (61-62) after taking Friday’s opener 4-3. Saturday’s matchup features a premium pitching duel between southpaw Max Fried and former Yankee Sonny Gray at Busch Stadium. With the Yankees fighting to maintain their wild card position and potentially make up ground in the AL East, this showdown presents several interesting betting angles worth exploring, particularly with both starters having excellent seasons despite their teams’ inconsistencies.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-146) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-120) ★★★★☆
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Yankees | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -146 | +124 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+115) | +1.5 (-138) |
| Total | Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-120) |
Opening Line: Yankees -142, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line has remained relatively steady since opening, moving only slightly in favor of the Yankees despite their Friday night victory. This suggests professional bettors aren’t rushing to back either side heavily, respecting Sonny Gray’s home prowess despite the Cardinals’ overall struggles. The total has ticked up from 8.5 to 9, though the juice is leaning toward the under at -120, indicating some resistance to the move. With both starters capable of dominance, sharp money appears to be slightly favoring a lower-scoring affair than the market initially projected.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Sonny Gray – Who Has the Edge?
New York Yankees: Max Fried (12-5, 2.94 ERA)
- Has been the Yankees’ most consistent starter this season with a stellar 2.94 ERA across 144 innings
- Excellent control with 36 walks against 135 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP
- Has pitched into the 6th inning or beyond in 18 of his 22 starts this season
- Left-handed batters hitting just .217 against him this season
St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (11-5, 4.06 ERA)
- Has been better than his ERA indicates with 148 strikeouts in 135.1 innings
- Shows excellent command with just 22 walks and a 1.15 WHIP
- Has been much stronger at Busch Stadium (3.27 home ERA) than on the road (4.89)
- Former Yankee who struggled in pinstripes (4.51 ERA in 2018) but has revitalized his career since
Advantage: Yankees. While Gray has impressive strikeout numbers and better home/road splits, Fried has been more consistent throughout the season and provides the more reliable floor. Fried’s ability to work deep into games also gives the Yankees a slight bullpen advantage.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees have assembled an impressive collection of high-leverage relievers, though they’ve been somewhat inconsistent as a unit. Friday’s victory showcased their potential, with Mark Leiter Jr., Luke Weaver and David Bednar combining to close out the win. The Yankees have multiple closing options in Bednar (19 saves), Devin Williams (17 saves) and Camilo Doval (15 saves), giving them tremendous flexibility in the late innings. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been a significant weakness all season, ranking among the bottom third in ERA (4.35) and blown saves. Their lack of a reliable closer has been evident, with no Cardinal pitcher accumulating more than 3 saves this season. JoJo Romero has been their most reliable high-leverage option, but the gap between the bullpens heavily favors New York.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees are 27-32 on the road this season but have won 4 of their last 6 games overall
- St. Louis has a solid 35-27 home record despite their overall sub-.500 mark
- The Yankees are 42-15 when scoring 5+ runs but just 22-42 when scoring 4 or fewer
- The Cardinals are 11-6 in Sonny Gray’s starts this season
- Max Fried has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 22 starts
- The Cardinals are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have struggled against left-handed starters
- Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have gone under the total
- The Yankees are 13-11 in games started by Max Fried this season
Aaron Judge’s Historic Season: Can Cardinals Contain the MVP Frontrunner?
Aaron Judge continues his remarkable 2025 campaign, leading MLB with a .330 batting average, .442 OBP, and .680 slugging percentage. His consistency has been a stabilizing force for a Yankees offense that has otherwise run hot and cold this season. Against Sonny Gray, Judge has limited but successful history, going 3-for-9 with a home run. The Cardinals will need to navigate the Judge at-bats carefully, as the rest of the Yankees lineup becomes significantly more dangerous when pitching from behind. With Judge typically taking one of the more patient approaches in baseball, Gray’s command will be tested early and often. If the Cardinals attempt to pitch around Judge, it could create opportunities for Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who have both been swinging hot bats lately.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium ranks as one of the more neutral parks in baseball, with a runs factor of 0.992 and a home run factor of 0.917 this season. The slightly pitcher-friendly dimensions combined with good defensive outfielders make this an environment where contact hitters can thrive while power numbers are somewhat suppressed. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with moderate humidity and light winds, conditions that shouldn’t drastically affect the game. Fried’s ground ball tendencies should play well in this environment, while Gray’s success at home is partially attributed to how his breaking pitches perform in Busch Stadium’s conditions. The venue’s slight pitcher lean, combined with these starters’ profiles, reinforces my confidence in the under, especially with the total having moved up to 9.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Yankees-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: Yankees Moneyline (-146)
The Yankees have the pitching advantage with Fried, who’s been one of the most consistent starters in baseball this season. While Gray has been solid at home, the Cardinals’ bullpen instability creates a significant advantage for New York in the later innings. I expect the Yankees to build on Friday’s momentum and secure another win in St. Louis. Brian Cashman’s pre-game comments Friday about the team’s urgency should have the Yankees fully focused, and they have the superior talent to execute. I’d play this to -155.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-120)
Both starters have been effective this season, and Busch Stadium slightly favors pitchers. The Yankees’ offense can be feast or famine, while the Cardinals rank 22nd in runs scored. Gray has been significantly better at home, and Fried has been a model of consistency. Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have gone under, and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair with two quality starters on the mound. The line move from 8.5 to 9 presents added value on the under.
Worth Considering: Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Fried has cleared this mark in 15 of his 22 starts this season, and the Cardinals’ lineup has been prone to strikeouts against left-handed pitching. The absence of Brendan Donovan (foot soreness) and potentially Willson Contreras (foot contusion) from the Cardinals’ lineup weakens their contact skills further. Fried’s ability to work deep into games gives him ample opportunity to accumulate strikeouts, and I expect him to record at least 6 Ks in this matchup.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Aaron Judge | To Record an RBI | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +135 | ★★★★☆ |
| Alec Burleson | Under 0.5 RBIs | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Sonny Gray | Under 6.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees’ Pitching Edge Will Prove Decisive
The Yankees find themselves at a critical juncture in their season, battling for playoff positioning while trying to recapture their early-season form. With Max Fried on the mound and a significantly superior bullpen, they have all the tools needed to secure this victory. The Cardinals have been respectable at home but lack the firepower to consistently compete with contending teams. While Sonny Gray will be motivated facing his former team, the Yankees’ combination of Aaron Judge’s MVP-caliber production and their deep relief corps should prove too much for St. Louis. Expect a well-pitched, relatively low-scoring affair with the Yankees coming out on top as they continue their push toward October baseball.
Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Cardinals 3
