Yankees vs. Jays Odds & Pick 9/28/21

by | Sep 28, 2021 | mlb

New York Yankees (89-67) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (87-69)

When: 7:07 p.m., Tuesday, September 28

Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto

Moneyline: NYY +112/TOR -121 (Dimeline baseball betting >>> Why overpay for odds???)

Runline: Yankees +1.5/Blue Jays -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)

Pressure for Whom?

The biggest question here is which team needs this series more, as both are battling to the final week for one of the two wild cards. With the Yankees holding a two-game lead on the Blue Jays, it would seem that Toronto is the more desperate team here, as they’ve got to get at least two wins out of three to give themselves a chance going into the final weekend.

But the Yankees have pressure of their own, and it comes in the form of the schedule, which is definitely not New York’s friend. If the Yankees get the sweep, all is well, but if they fail to sweep the Jays, Tampa Bay will get its say as to who it plays in the ALDS. The Yankees end the year with three games with the Rays. At the same time, the Blue Jays face Baltimore, and the Red Sox get Washington, which means that if New York doesn’t get the job done against Toronto, Tampa Bay could choose to go all-in on the final series and knock the Yankees out of the race before the wild card game even occurs. As such, both teams badly need to win this series.

Homer Happy

Traditionally, the Yankees have been known as one of the best home-run hitting teams in baseball. But they cannot hold a candle to the Blue Jays’ bats in this matchup, as Toronto has made power into an art form in 2021. The Jays have blasted 248 home runs on the season, 11 more than second-place San Francisco. To be fair, part of the Jays’ success can be tied to the fact that they got to divide their home games between minor league parks in Dunedin and Buffalo before they made it north of the border, but Toronto has had no problems blasting the ball no matter where the game is played.
One big sign that it’s not just playing in small parks that fuels the Jays is the fact that they rank third in baseball in runs scored, behind only Houston and Tampa Bay. Conversely, the Yankees, who rank seventh in baseball in home runs (they’re still good at the long ball, even if not at Toronto’s level), rank 18th in runs scored. New York has no idea how to manufacture runs, while Toronto is perfectly happy to get runs via either the long ball or by stringing some hits together. Toronto spreads the wealth around the batting order as well: six Blue Jays have at least 20 home runs this year, with a seventh on 19 in George Springer.

Mastering the Foe

This is the kind of game Toronto brought in Hyun-Jin Ryu to pitch. The Blue Jays knew they had an abundance of young hitting talent but didn’t really have the pitching to match it going into 2020, which was why they imported Ryu from the Dodgers. The Jays have built up their pitching very well over the past two seasons, but Ryu is still the man they’d want on the mound for a game like this, and for good reason. Not only does he have the experience, but he’s beaten the Yankees twice this season and took a no-decision in his other appearance against New York.

The one concern with Ryu is that he hasn’t looked great in his past two starts, giving up 12 runs in 4.1 innings of work. If he doesn’t have his best stuff, he’s toast, and the Jays are likely there with him. But before those two disasters, he was outstanding in the start before — six shutout innings against the Yankees.

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Betting Trends

  • The Yankees have won five of six against the AL East.
  • The Yankees have won seven straight after a day off.
  • The Blue Jays are 21-8 in their past 29 games overall.
  • The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their past ten games as a home favorite.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ past six road games.
  • The under is 9-4 in the Yankees’ past 13 games following a win.
  • The under is 21-8-3 in the Blue Jays’ past 32 games as a favorite.
  • The under has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ past six games overall.
  • The Blue Jays have won four straight against the Yankees.
  • The under is 12-5 in the past 17 matchups.

Weather Report

Rain isn’t in the forecast, so the Blue Jays might leave the roof open on a 60-degree, partly cloudy night in Toronto. Wind will blow at eight miles per hour toward the third-base dugout if the Jays don’t close the roof.

Dan’s Pick

This is the opportunity the Jays have been playing for, and I don’t think they squander it in this situation. Ryu’s recent struggles do give me serious cause for concern, but the left-hander has usually pitched well against the Yankees and knows how to handle a big game.

I think he can bounce back here. Give me the Jays. Bankroll running low? Fix that problem with a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!

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