The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Charlotte this Monday afternoon for a matchup that looks drastically different on paper than it does in the standings. With both Joel Embiid and Paul George sidelined for injury management, we break down the efficiency gap to provide an expert ATS pick for this Eastern Conference clash.
The Setup: 76ers at Hornets
The Hornets are laying 3.5 points at home against a 76ers squad missing both Joel Embiid and Paul George on Monday afternoon at the Spectrum Center. Philadelphia comes in at 24-20 but gets caught in the worst possible scheduling spot—the front end of a back-to-back with their two best players sitting for load management. Charlotte sits at 18-28, but this roster has legitimate offensive firepower with LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and rookie Kon Knueppel all averaging between 18.9 and 20.0 points per game. The market opened this line at Hornets -3.5, and that number makes sense when you account for the personnel gap. Philadelphia’s better record tells one story, but the possession-level math tells another when you strip away 32.5 combined points per game from Embiid and George.
This isn’t about fading the 76ers blindly—it’s about understanding what happens when a team loses two players who account for that much usage and efficiency. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 29.9 points and carrying a massive offensive load, but the depth behind him thins dramatically without George’s playmaking and Embiid’s interior presence. Charlotte’s home record sits at just 8-13, but the situational edge here is significant. The Hornets just won back-to-back games and caught Washington for nine straight losses on Saturday. The rhythm matters, especially against a depleted opponent playing the first night of a back-to-back.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets
Date: Monday, January 26, 2026
Time: 3:00 ET
Location: Spectrum Center
TV: NBC Sports Phil +, NBA League Pass, NBC Sports Phil (Away) | FanDuel SN SE (Home)
Current Betting Lines (Bovada):
Spread: Charlotte Hornets -3.5 (-105) | Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets -145 | Philadelphia 76ers +125
Total: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
The market landed on Hornets -3.5 because the talent differential evaporates when you remove Embiid and George from Philadelphia’s rotation. Embiid is averaging 25.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, while George adds another 7.5 points in the context of his role. That’s not just scoring—it’s usage, defensive attention, and offensive structure. Andre Drummond will start at center, and while he provides rebounding, he doesn’t replicate Embiid’s spacing or post-up gravity. The 76ers are 12-7 on the road, which looks solid, but that record includes games where at least one of their stars was available.
Charlotte’s offensive ceiling is higher than their 18-28 record suggests. Ball is averaging 19.3 points and 7.6 assists, Miller is at 20.0 points, and Knueppel gives them a third legitimate scorer at 18.9 points per game. That’s three players who can create offense in different ways, and against a Philadelphia defense that loses its rim protection and perimeter versatility, the Hornets should generate quality looks. The total sits at 227.5, which accounts for both teams having offensive weapons but also reflects Charlotte’s inconsistency. This line isn’t about disrespecting Philadelphia—it’s about recognizing that without their two best players, the 76ers become a different team structurally.
The moneyline at Hornets -145 suggests the market views this as a legitimate mismatch, not a coin flip. Philadelphia’s depth includes VJ Edgecombe at 15.6 points per game, but asking him to shoulder a larger offensive role against a team that just found rhythm is a different calculation than playing alongside Embiid and George. The situational context—first night of a back-to-back, load management for two stars, road game against a team coming off consecutive wins—all pushes this line toward Charlotte.
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Philadelphia’s offense runs through Maxey, who’s averaging 29.9 points and 6.8 assists per game. He’s been excellent this season, but the efficiency math changes when he’s the only high-usage creator on the floor. Maxey thrives when defenses have to account for Embiid in the post or George on the perimeter. Without that help, Charlotte can load up defensively and force Maxey into contested looks or difficult passes. Edgecombe provides secondary scoring at 15.6 points per game, but he’s not a primary creator—he benefits from the gravity that Embiid and George provide.
The 76ers’ road record of 12-7 is solid, but context matters. Those wins likely came with better health and rotation depth. Drummond will start and provide rebounding, but he doesn’t stretch the floor or create mismatches the way Embiid does. The injury report also lists MarJon Beauchamp as questionable, though his impact is minimal given his limited minutes this season. The real issue is structural—Philadelphia loses two players who combine for significant usage, and the players stepping up aren’t equipped to replicate that production against a team with multiple offensive weapons.
Defensively, the 76ers lose Embiid’s rim protection and George’s perimeter versatility. That’s critical against a Hornets team that can attack from multiple angles. Ball’s playmaking and Miller’s scoring create different problems, and without their best defenders, Philadelphia will struggle to contain both. The back-to-back element adds another layer—this team knows Embiid and George will return Tuesday against Milwaukee, so the urgency to grind out a win on the road might not be there.
Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte’s 18-28 record doesn’t reflect the offensive talent on this roster. Ball is averaging 19.3 points and 7.6 assists, giving the Hornets a legitimate floor general who can create for others. Miller adds 20.0 points per game and provides scoring from multiple levels, while Knueppel’s 18.9 points per game gives them a third option who can exploit mismatches. Miles Bridges added 20 points in Saturday’s win over Washington, and the Hornets have won back-to-back games for the first time this season. That rhythm matters, especially when facing a depleted opponent.
The Hornets’ home record of 8-13 isn’t impressive, but this is a matchup where the talent gap narrows significantly. Charlotte’s offensive structure allows multiple players to initiate, which creates problems for Philadelphia’s depleted defense. Collin Sexton is probable despite left hamstring soreness, and he’s been averaging 12.7 points over his last six games. That depth matters when you’re facing a team missing two starters. Moussa Diabate added 11 points in Saturday’s win, and the Hornets have enough scoring options to exploit Philadelphia’s rotation gaps.
Defensively, Charlotte can focus on Maxey without worrying about Embiid or George. That’s a massive advantage. The Hornets can pressure the ball and force Maxey into difficult decisions, knowing the 76ers don’t have secondary creators who can punish aggressive schemes. Mason Plumlee remains out after groin surgery, but the Hornets have enough frontcourt depth to handle Drummond. This is a spot where Charlotte’s talent level matches up favorably, and the situational edge—playing at home against a team on the front end of a back-to-back—tilts the possession math in their favor.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided by how Philadelphia’s offense functions without Embiid and George. Maxey will get his points—he’s too good not to—but the efficiency drops when he’s the only high-usage player defenses need to account for. Charlotte can load up on Maxey, force him into contested looks, and dare Philadelphia’s secondary options to beat them. Edgecombe and Drummond provide some production, but neither can replicate the offensive gravity that Embiid and George create. Over 95 possessions, that gap becomes significant.
Charlotte’s offensive advantage is clear. Ball, Miller, and Knueppel give the Hornets three players who can create their own offense, and Philadelphia’s defense loses its two best perimeter and interior defenders. The Hornets should generate quality looks, especially in transition and against Philadelphia’s depleted halfcourt defense. The total of 227.5 suggests a moderate-paced game, but Charlotte’s ability to score in different ways gives them the edge in offensive efficiency. If the Hornets push the pace and force Philadelphia into rotations where Drummond has to defend in space, the 76ers will struggle to keep up.
The back-to-back element is critical. Philadelphia knows Embiid and George will return Tuesday against Milwaukee, and this game becomes a throwaway in the context of load management. The 76ers aren’t incentivized to grind out a tough road win when their stars are resting for the next game. Charlotte, meanwhile, just won consecutive games and has momentum. The situational edge is massive—the Hornets are at home, playing with rhythm, and facing an opponent that’s structurally compromised. The possession math favors Charlotte, and the 3.5-point spread undervalues the talent and situational gap.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 3.5 points with Charlotte. The 76ers are missing two players who combine for over 32 points per game, and the structural impact is even larger than the raw scoring numbers suggest. Maxey will carry a massive load, but Charlotte can focus defensively on him without worrying about Embiid or George. The Hornets have three legitimate scorers in Ball, Miller, and Knueppel, and they’re playing at home with momentum after back-to-back wins. Philadelphia’s on the front end of a back-to-back with their stars resting for Tuesday’s game against Milwaukee, and that’s a massive situational disadvantage.
The main risk is Maxey going nuclear and willing Philadelphia to a cover, but even if he scores 35-plus, the 76ers need secondary production that’s hard to find without George and Embiid. Charlotte’s offensive firepower should be enough to win this game by more than a possession, and the situational edge makes this a clear play. The market landed at Hornets -3.5 for a reason—the talent gap evaporates when you remove Philadelphia’s two best players, and Charlotte has the weapons to exploit that.
BASH’S BEST BET: Hornets -3.5 for 2 units.
This is a spot where the numbers and the situation align. Philadelphia’s depleted, Charlotte’s got rhythm, and 3.5 points doesn’t capture the full gap.
