The Philadelphia 76ers head to Indianapolis as 9.5-point favorites, a line that highlights the catastrophic injury situation currently hollowing out the Pacers’ rotation. While Joel Embiid is officially a game-time decision, the Sixers’ system has proven its potency without him, creating a massive efficiency gap against an Indiana squad missing its two primary All-Stars and half its bench.
The Setup: Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers
The Sixers are laying 9.5 points at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday night against a Pacers team that’s fallen to 15-43 and just dropped three straight coming out of the All-Star break. Philadelphia sits at 31-26 after snapping a four-game skid with a dominant 135-108 win in Minnesota, with Tyrese Maxey dropping 39 and the offense clicking on all cylinders despite Joel Embiid remaining questionable with right shin soreness. Indiana, meanwhile, lost at home to Dallas on Sunday despite Pascal Siakam’s 30-point return from injury—and now Siakam is listed as doubtful with a wrist issue. The projection here lands at Sixers by 1.9 points, which means we’re getting 7.6 points of cushion on the spread. This line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. The Pacers are operating at a -7.3 net rating while Philadelphia sits at +0.3, creating a season-long efficiency differential of 7.6 points per 100 possessions that the market isn’t fully respecting. With Indiana’s injury report reading like a hospital ward and their best player likely sidelined, this number points to value on the road favorite.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 24, 2026, 7:00 ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
TV: Home: FanDuel SN IN | Away: NBC Sports Phil, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Indiana Pacers +9.5 (-110) | Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana Pacers +328 | Philadelphia 76ers -455
Why This Line Exists
The market set this number at 9.5 knowing full well that Philadelphia has been inconsistent all season and that Embiid’s status remains murky. But here’s what the market might be undervaluing: the Sixers just put up 135 points without their MVP center, Maxey is playing at an All-NBA level averaging 29.0 points per game on 46.8% shooting, and Indiana’s defensive rating of 116.1 ranks among the league’s worst. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here—Philadelphia’s 114.8 offensive rating attacking Indiana’s porous defense creates a mismatch advantage of 5.7 points per 100 possessions going the wrong direction for the home team.
The pace blend sits at 100.9 possessions, right in the middle ground between Philly’s 99.9 and Indiana’s 102.0. That’s enough possessions for efficiency advantages to fully express themselves. Over 101 possessions, that 7.6-point net rating gap translates to real margin. The Pacers are 10-19 at home this season and just suffered their first home loss since early February after the longest home game drought in franchise NBA history. They’re 0-3 since the break, and the writing’s on the wall with this matchup—they simply don’t have the bodies or the defensive structure to slow down a Sixers team that just torched Minnesota for 135.
Philadelphia also holds a massive 4.5-percentage-point edge in offensive rebounding rate (26.8% vs 22.3%), which means more second-chance opportunities in a game where Indiana’s already struggling to get stops. The total is set at 233.5, and my model projects 229.1, creating a 4.4-point edge toward the under—but that’s secondary to the spread value here.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Even without Embiid, this Sixers offense showed Sunday what it’s capable of when Maxey gets rolling. He went for 39 points on 16-of-28 shooting with eight assists, VJ Edgecombe hit a career-high six triples and finished with 24, and Quentin Grimes added 19 with five threes. That’s 21 made threes as a team and 135 points on the road against a Timberwolves squad that had won three straight. Philadelphia’s offensive rating of 114.8 ranks solidly above league average, and their 57.4% true shooting percentage shows they’re converting efficiently despite the roster chaos.
The Sixers are 16-11 on the road this season, which matters when you’re getting a bad home team at an inflated number. Kelly Oubre Jr. adds another scoring dimension at 14.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting, and the depth that burned Minnesota—Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre—gives them multiple guys who can exploit Indiana’s 116.1 defensive rating. Philadelphia also takes care of the ball at a 12.0% turnover rate, slightly better than Indiana’s 12.7%, and their clutch record of 17-15 with a +1.5 net rating in tight games shows they know how to finish when it matters. This team just snapped a four-game losing streak and has every reason to pile on a reeling opponent.
Indiana Pacers Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pacers are in full survival mode. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the season following Achilles surgery. Ivica Zubac, acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t played since joining the team due to a left ankle sprain. Aaron Nesmith is out with a right ankle sprain. Johnny Furphy is done for the year. Obi Toppin hasn’t played since October. And now Pascal Siakam, who just returned from a three-game absence to drop 30 on Sunday, is listed as doubtful with a wrist injury. That’s six rotation players unavailable or severely compromised.
When healthy, Siakam has been excellent at 23.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting. Andrew Nembhard has stepped up with 17.2 points and 7.5 assists per game, but he’s also questionable with lower-back injury management. Indiana’s 108.7 offensive rating ranks near the bottom of the league, and their 56.0% true shooting percentage trails Philadelphia by 1.4 percentage points. The Pacers are 5-24 on the road and just 10-19 at home, and their clutch record of 10-19 with a -1.6 net rating shows they don’t have the horses to win close games. They’re averaging just 7.2 clutch points per game on 42.8% shooting and a brutal 18.8% from three in crunch time. This is exactly the spot where Indiana burns you if you’re laying big numbers—except this time, they legitimately might not have enough bodies to stay competitive.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The possessions math tells a different story than the 9.5-point spread suggests. At 100.9 possessions, Philadelphia’s efficiency advantages compound possession after possession. Their offensive rating of 114.8 attacking Indiana’s 116.1 defensive rating creates a clean 1.3-point disadvantage for the Pacers on their defensive end. Flip it around, and Indiana’s 108.7 offensive rating running into Philadelphia’s 114.4 defensive rating creates another 5.7-point mismatch favoring the Sixers. Over 101 possessions, those gaps add up fast.
Philadelphia’s 26.8% offensive rebounding rate against Indiana’s defensive glass creates extra possessions that don’t show up in the base pace calculation. That 4.5-percentage-point gap means the Sixers will generate second chances at a significantly higher rate, extending possessions and creating more scoring opportunities in transition after offensive boards. Indiana’s assist-to-turnover ratio is solid at 65.3% assist rate, but that doesn’t matter when you’re missing your primary playmaker in Haliburton and your best scorer in Siakam is likely out.
The market’s disrespecting Philadelphia here. Yes, Embiid is questionable, but this team just won by 27 without him. Yes, Paul George remains suspended through late March, but Maxey has shown he can carry the offensive load, and the supporting cast—Edgecombe, Grimes, Oubre—provides enough firepower to exploit a defense ranked 116.1 in efficiency. Indiana’s home court advantage is worth maybe 2 points given their 10-19 record at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and even with that baked in, the efficiency differential favors Philadelphia by a wide margin. I’ve seen this movie before—a depleted team getting too many points at home because the market overvalues the home underdog narrative without accounting for the personnel reality.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 for 2 units.
The edge vs spread sits at 7.6 points in Philadelphia’s favor, which is a strong signal when you’re getting a road team with a 16-11 away record and a 7.6-point net rating advantage over 100 possessions. Indiana is likely without Siakam, possibly without Nembhard, and definitely without half their rotation. The Sixers just dropped 135 in Minnesota without Embiid and have every reason to keep their foot on the gas against a team that’s 0-3 since the break and allowing 116.1 points per 100 possessions on defense. I’m taking the points all day long—or in this case, laying them with confidence.
The risk here is obvious: if Embiid returns and looks rusty, or if the Sixers take their foot off the gas late thinking they’ve got it wrapped, Indiana could backdoor this number with garbage-time buckets. But Philadelphia’s clutch record of 17-15 and their +1.5 net rating in close games tells me they know how to finish. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore here, and the injury situation in Indiana is too severe to overcome. Lay the 9.5 and expect a double-digit Sixers win.
