The situational spot here suggests the 76ers are a dangerous favorite to back. The market is giving Philly 4 points of respect based on their record, but the possessions math for this specific roster tells a much grimmer story.
The Setup: Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans
The 76ers are laying 4 points on the road in New Orleans on Saturday night, and this line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math. Philadelphia sits at 30-25 with a dead-even net rating of +0.1, while the Pelicans are buried at 15-42 with a -5.9 net rating. That’s a 6-point gap in season-long efficiency that should theoretically support a bigger spread. But here’s the thing: the projection has this at just a 1-point Philly edge after factoring in home court, which means the market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here by giving them 4 points. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup—Philadelphia is missing both Joel Embiid and Paul George, who’s suspended through late March. That’s not just rotation thinning, that’s removing 42.6 points per game from a team that already runs at a slower pace than New Orleans. The efficiency gap is real, but the possessions math tells a different story when you’re this shorthanded.
New Orleans catches Philly at exactly the spot where depleted rosters burn you. The pace blend sits at 100.4 possessions, which favors the home team’s tempo slightly and creates more opportunities for a Pelicans squad that can score in bunches with Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson. The model projects Philadelphia at 117 points and New Orleans at 113.9, but that 3-point edge against the spread screams value on the home dog. I’m taking the points all day long.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 21, 2026, 7:00 ET
Location: Smoothie King Center
TV: Home: GCSEN, Pelicans.com | Away: NBC Sports Phil, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: New Orleans Pelicans +4.0 (-110) | Philadelphia 76ers -4.0 (-110)
- Total: Over 232.0 (-110) | Under 232.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans Pelicans +137 | Philadelphia 76ers -169
Why This Line Exists
The market set this number at 4 because Philadelphia’s 6-point net rating advantage over New Orleans represents legitimate season-long dominance. The 76ers run at 114.6 offensive rating against 114.5 defensive rating for a +0.1 net, while the Pelicans sit at 112.4 offensive and 118.3 defensive for -5.9 net. That’s a 6-point gap per 100 possessions that forms the foundation of any spread calculation. But the projection only gives Philly a 1-point edge after applying a standard 2-point home court adjustment, which creates a 3-point cushion for anyone backing New Orleans.
The pace blend of 100.4 possessions pushes this game slightly faster than Philadelphia’s preferred 99.8 tempo but right in line with New Orleans’ 101.1 pace. That’s meaningful because it amplifies scoring variance and gives the Pelicans more chances to exploit Philly’s compromised depth. The total projection lands at 230.9 points, just under the market’s 232 number, suggesting both teams will have ample opportunities to score but may not quite reach the posted total. This is exactly the spot where a short-handed favorite struggles to cover—they can win the game but lack the firepower to pull away.
The efficiency gap exists, but context matters. Philadelphia’s offensive rating of 114.6 ranks solidly above league average, but they’re generating that production with Embiid and George healthy for most of the season. Remove those two, and suddenly Tyrese Maxey is carrying a usage load he’s not built to sustain for 100 possessions against even a weak defense. New Orleans allows 118.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks near the bottom of the league, but that defensive weakness becomes less exploitable when the opposing offense is running short rotations and leaning on Kelly Oubre Jr. and VJ Edgecombe for expanded roles.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The 76ers are 30-25 overall and 15-10 on the road, which shows legitimate competence away from home. But those road wins came with a healthy roster, and this trip to New Orleans presents a completely different challenge. Tyrese Maxey leads the team at 28.9 points and 6.7 assists per game on 46.7% shooting and 37.9% from three. He’s the engine now, and he’ll need to be elite for Philadelphia to cover this number. The problem is that Maxey’s clutch performance shows a 53.1% win rate in close games, but that data includes stretches with Embiid and George closing. Without them, the 76ers lose their late-game offensive diversity.
Philadelphia’s offensive rating of 114.6 pairs with a 57.4% true shooting percentage, which indicates efficient scoring when the roster is full. But Kelly Oubre Jr. at 14 points per game and VJ Edgecombe at 15 points per game are now being asked to fill 42.6 points worth of production from the two missing stars. That’s not realistic over 100 possessions. The 76ers turn the ball over on just 12.1% of possessions, which is solid, but their offensive rebounding rate of 26.9% sits right at league average—no real advantage there to create second-chance points when shots aren’t falling.
The defensive side shows a 114.5 rating, essentially break-even with their offense. That’s fine when you’re scoring efficiently, but it becomes a problem when your offense sputters because you’re missing two All-Star caliber players. Philadelphia’s effective field goal percentage of 52.9% is respectable, but again, that number reflects season-long performance with a healthy lineup. On Saturday, they’re rolling out a rotation that lacks the depth to sustain that efficiency against a team that will push pace and force them to play faster than they want.
New Orleans Pelicans Breakdown: The Other Side
The Pelicans are 15-42 and 9-21 at home, which paints a picture of a team that’s been outclassed most nights. But the raw record doesn’t tell you that Trey Murphy III is averaging 22.1 points on 47.6% shooting and 37.8% from three, or that Zion Williamson is putting up 21.9 points on an absurd 58.9% field goal percentage. Those two give New Orleans legitimate offensive firepower, and they’re facing a Philadelphia defense that’s already struggling to cover assignments with a depleted roster. Saddiq Bey adds 16.7 points per game, and Jordan Poole chips in 14.1, giving the Pelicans four legitimate scoring threats.
New Orleans’ 112.4 offensive rating ranks below average, but their 56.3% true shooting percentage shows they’re not inefficient—they just don’t get enough possessions or defensive stops to win consistently. The 101.1 pace favors them in this matchup because it forces Philadelphia to play faster than their 99.8 preferred tempo. That extra possession or two per game matters when you’re the team with more offensive depth. The Pelicans’ 52.5% effective field goal percentage sits within noise of Philadelphia’s 52.9%, meaning there’s no real shooting quality gap to exploit.
The defensive rating of 118.3 is ugly, but it’s less of a liability when the opponent is missing two of their best three players. New Orleans allows too many points per 100 possessions, but they’re facing a 76ers offense that will struggle to generate clean looks without Embiid’s post presence or George’s perimeter shot creation. The Pelicans’ clutch record of 10-21 with a 32.3% win rate shows they don’t close games well, but they don’t need to win outright here—they just need to stay within 4 points, and their 28.1% clutch three-point shooting suggests they won’t fold late if this game stays tight.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the pace and possession battle. The pace blend of 100.4 possessions creates an up-tempo environment that slightly favors New Orleans, and that matters because Philadelphia’s depth chart is razor-thin. Over 100 possessions, the 76ers need to maintain their season-long offensive efficiency of 114.6 points per 100 without two players who account for 42.6 points per game. That’s asking Maxey to carry a usage load he’s not built for, and it’s asking role players like Oubre and Edgecombe to produce at levels they haven’t shown consistently.
The off/def mismatch numbers tell the story. Philadelphia’s offense against New Orleans’ defense shows a -2.1 edge per 100 possessions, which is small and basically priced correctly into this line. But the reverse matchup—New Orleans’ offense against Philadelphia’s defense—shows a -3.7 edge per 100 possessions favoring Philly. That’s a medium-sized gap that would normally support a larger spread, but it’s predicated on Philadelphia’s defense holding up with a full roster. Without Embiid and George, the 76ers lose rim protection and perimeter versatility, which makes that -3.7 edge less reliable.
The true shooting gap of -1.0 percentage points favoring Philadelphia is small and within noise—there’s no meaningful shooting quality advantage here. The turnover and offensive rebounding edges are both within noise as well, sitting at -0.1 percentage points. That means this game comes down to who can generate more high-quality looks over 100 possessions, and the team with more offensive depth is New Orleans. Murphy III and Williamson can attack a compromised Philadelphia defense, while Maxey is forced to do everything for the 76ers. The possessions math changes everything in this matchup—more possessions means more variance, and variance favors the underdog when the favorite is this shorthanded.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The projection gives Philadelphia a 1-point edge, and the market is giving New Orleans 4 points. That’s a 3-point edge against the spread, and I’ve seen this movie before—short-handed favorites on the road struggle to cover even when they win outright. The Pelicans don’t need to win this game; they just need to stay within a possession or two, and their offensive firepower with Murphy III and Williamson gives them the tools to do exactly that. Philadelphia’s clutch win rate of 53.1% is significantly better than New Orleans’ 32.3%, but that data includes games with Embiid and George closing. Without them, the 76ers lose their late-game reliability.
The main risk here is that New Orleans simply doesn’t show up defensively and allows Maxey to go nuclear for 40-plus points while the Pelicans’ weak defensive rating of 118.3 gets exposed. But even in that scenario, Murphy III and Williamson should be able to keep pace against a Philadelphia defense that’s missing two starters. The pace blend of 100.4 possessions creates enough scoring opportunities for both teams to stay close, and the 3-point edge against the spread is too wide to ignore here. this number points to value on the home dog.
BASH’S BEST BET: New Orleans Pelicans +4.0 for 2 units.
The market’s disrespecting the Pelicans here, and I’m taking the points all day long. Philadelphia might win this game, but they’re not covering 4 on the road without Embiid and George. Lock it in.
