Is the 3-point spread too low for a motivated Philadelphia squad seeking immediate payback? Bash digs into the numbers and gives out his ATS pick.
The Setup: 76ers at Raptors
The Sixers are laying 3 points on the road in Toronto on Monday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Philadelphia just lost to the Raptors 116-115 in overtime on Sunday—a gut-punch defeat that saw Scottie Barnes hit a game-winning free throw with 0.8 seconds left. Now they get an immediate revenge opportunity as the back end of a back-to-back set, and the market is essentially saying the 76ers are the better team but the scheduling spot and venue neutralize most of that edge.
Here’s the thing—this line exists in a vacuum of uncertainty. Joel Embiid sat Sunday with left knee injury management and left groin soreness, and while he’s listed as questionable for Monday, the pattern suggests he could return for this second game. Paul George was scratched right before tip-off Sunday with a left knee injury but is also a candidate to return Monday. Meanwhile, Toronto is without Brandon Ingram, Jakob Poeltl, and Chucky Hepburn—three rotation pieces that significantly impact their depth and two-way balance.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I think the market is underestimating how this matchup actually plays out over 48 minutes when you account for fatigue, rotation depth, and efficiency gaps.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
Date: January 12, 2026
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: 76ers -3.0 (-110) / Raptors +3.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: 76ers -145 / Raptors +118
- Total: 220.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The market opened Philadelphia as a 3-point road favorite, which tells you the oddsmakers believe the 76ers are roughly 6 points better on a neutral floor when you account for the standard 3-point home-court adjustment. That’s a reasonable assessment when you look at the records—Philadelphia sits at 21-16 while Toronto is 24-16—but the Raptors’ better record is somewhat misleading given their injury situation.
The Sixers are 11-7 on the road this season, which is a legitimate strength. They’ve shown they can win away from home, and Tyrese Maxey has been exceptional all year, averaging 30.9 points and 6.8 assists per game. That’s your primary engine, and when Embiid is out, Maxey’s usage and shot volume increase even further.
Toronto’s 13-8 home record is solid, but they’re dealing with significant absences. Brandon Ingram leads the team at 21.8 points per game, and he missed Sunday’s game with a day-to-day designation. Jakob Poeltl, their starting center, has been out and won’t return Monday either. That’s a problem when you’re trying to defend the paint and control the glass, especially if Embiid does return.
The total of 220.5 reflects the expectation of a competitive, up-tempo game. Sunday’s contest went to overtime and finished with 231 combined points, but that extra period inflates the number. In regulation, we’re talking about a pace that suggests both teams will push transition opportunities and generate efficient looks.
Philadelphia 76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The 76ers are built around Tyrese Maxey’s scoring and playmaking, and he’s been one of the most productive guards in the league this season. His 30.9 points per game ranks him among the elite, and his ability to create off the dribble and finish at the rim is critical when Embiid’s availability is uncertain.
If Embiid returns Monday, that changes the entire complexion of this game. His 23.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game provide interior presence and post scoring that Toronto simply cannot match without Poeltl. Even at less than 100 percent, Embiid’s gravity opens up driving lanes for Maxey and creates better spacing for shooters.
VJ Edgecombe has emerged as a reliable third option, contributing 16.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. That’s legitimate two-way production, and his ability to defend multiple positions gives Philadelphia flexibility in their rotation.
The main concern here is the back-to-back factor. Philadelphia played overtime Sunday night, which means their rotation logged heavy minutes. If Embiid and George both sit again, you’re asking Maxey to carry an enormous load for the second consecutive night, and that’s a tall order even for a player of his caliber.
Toronto Raptors Breakdown: The Other Side
Toronto’s offensive identity revolves around balanced scoring from their top three: Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Scottie Barnes. Ingram’s 21.8 points per game leads the way, but his absence Sunday forced Barrett and Barnes to shoulder more responsibility, and they delivered. Barrett’s 19.6 points and Barnes’ 19.4 points with 8.4 rebounds and 5.3 assists give Toronto multiple creators who can attack mismatches.
The problem is depth and interior defense. Without Poeltl, Toronto is forced to play Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Murray-Boyles at center, and neither player provides the same rim protection or rebounding presence. That’s a significant disadvantage if Embiid plays, and even if he doesn’t, Andre Drummond and Adem Bona can exploit that size mismatch.
Chucky Hepburn’s absence also hurts. He’s been averaging 12.8 points, 9.2 assists, and 2.4 steals across 11 appearances, which is legitimate point guard production with defensive disruption. Losing that playmaking and perimeter pressure thins out Toronto’s backcourt rotation.
Here’s the thing—Toronto won Sunday because they executed in crunch time and got a heroic performance from Barnes. But asking them to replicate that effort on zero rest, still missing key rotation pieces, against a motivated Philadelphia team is a different proposition.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the glass. If Embiid plays, Philadelphia has a massive advantage in the interior. Toronto’s makeshift center rotation simply cannot handle his size, footwork, and scoring touch. Even if Embiid is limited to 25-28 minutes, that’s enough to tilt the efficiency gap in Philadelphia’s favor.
If Embiid sits again, this becomes a perimeter-driven game where Maxey’s ability to get downhill and create for others becomes the deciding factor. Toronto’s defense will load up on him, but that opens up opportunities for Kelly Oubre and VJ Edgecombe to attack closeouts and generate secondary offense.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap when you factor in rest and rotation depth. Philadelphia has more high-level options even if they’re missing George. Toronto is thinner, especially in the frontcourt, and the back-to-back scheduling spot affects both teams equally—but the team with less depth typically struggles more in these situations.
The total of 220.5 feels about right. Both teams will push pace, and the lack of elite rim protection on Toronto’s side should lead to efficient scoring opportunities for Philadelphia. I’d lean toward the over if both teams stay aggressive and don’t bog down in the halfcourt.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Philadelphia 76ers -3.0 for 2 units.
The main risk here is Embiid and George both sitting again, which would force Philadelphia to rely heavily on Maxey for the second straight night. But even in that scenario, Toronto’s injury situation is worse. They’re missing their leading scorer, their starting center, and a productive backup point guard. That’s three rotation pieces that directly impact their ability to defend the paint, control possessions, and generate efficient offense.
If Embiid returns—even in a limited role—this line should be closer to 5 or 6 points. The market is giving us value because of uncertainty, but once you dig into the matchup data and account for rotation depth, Philadelphia has the clearer path to covering this number.
The 76ers are 11-7 on the road, and they just lost a heartbreaker in overtime. This is a revenge spot with immediate turnaround, and I trust their top-end talent to execute better than Toronto’s depleted rotation over 48 minutes. Lay the 3 and expect Philadelphia to control the paint and close this one out in the final five minutes.
