The 76ers enter Chase Center as 4.5-point favorites following the news that Stephen Curry is out. Bash analyzes the efficiency chasm and Philadelphia’s elite road record to find the sharpest prediction for Tuesday night.
The Setup: 76ers at Warriors
The 76ers roll into Chase Center on Tuesday night laying 2.5 points to a Warriors squad that’s been gutted by injuries. Philadelphia’s won four straight, including a 128-113 beatdown of the Clippers where Tyrese Maxey dropped 29 and Dominick Barlow put up 26 and 16. Golden State just lost at home to Detroit 131-124, and they’re doing it without Jimmy Butler (out for the season) and Jonathan Kuminga (week-to-week with knee soreness). The line suggests the market still respects Golden State’s home court—they’re 17-8 at Chase Center—but the Warriors are playing skeleton crew basketball right now. This spread is tight because the market knows Philadelphia’s missing Paul George until late March, but Maxey is averaging 29.2 points per game and the 76ers are 13-8 on the road. The question isn’t whether Philadelphia can win outright. It’s whether they can cover a short number against a Warriors team that’s lost two of its top rotation pieces in the last two weeks.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 3, 2026, 10:00 ET
Venue: Chase Center
TV: NBC Sports BA (Home), NBA League Pass, NBC Sports Phil + (Away)
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Philadelphia 76ers +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -137 | 76ers +112
- Total: Over/Under 219.0 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Golden State is getting 2.5 points at home despite missing two rotation cornerstones. That tells you the market still values their 17-8 home record and Stephen Curry’s ability to carry offensive possessions. Curry’s averaging 27.2 points and just scored 23 in four consecutive 20-point performances before exiting Friday’s loss with right knee soreness. The concern here is obvious—if Curry’s knee limits him or keeps him out, this line moves fast. But as of now, the Warriors are favored because they’re at Chase Center and Philadelphia is without Paul George, who was averaging 16.0 points and 5.1 boards before his suspension that runs until late March.
The total at 219.0 is moderate, which reflects two teams that can score but are dealing with rotation uncertainty. Philadelphia just put up 128 on the Clippers with Maxey and Barlow leading the way. Golden State allowed 131 to Detroit at home, which tells you their defensive integrity is compromised without Butler and Kuminga. The market is pricing in Golden State’s home-court advantage and Curry’s presence, but it’s also acknowledging that the Warriors’ depth chart is thin and Philadelphia has momentum with four straight wins.
76ers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Philadelphia is 28-21 and sitting sixth in the East, but they’re 13-8 on the road, which is a legitimate strength. Maxey is the engine—29.2 points and 6.9 assists per game—and he just went for 29 with seven triples against the Clippers. Joel Embiid is averaging 26.1 points and 7.4 rebounds, and when he’s engaged, Philadelphia has enough offensive firepower to hang with anyone. The concern is George’s absence, which removes a secondary playmaker and perimeter defender. Barlow stepped up with 26 and 16 in the last game, but that’s not a sustainable expectation every night.
The 76ers are winning because Maxey is playing at an All-NBA level and Embiid is healthy enough to contribute. Their road record suggests they can handle hostile environments, and Golden State’s current injury situation makes Chase Center less intimidating than usual. Philadelphia’s four-game winning streak isn’t a fluke—they’re executing when it matters, and Maxey’s shooting efficiency is keeping defenses honest on the perimeter.
Warriors Breakdown: The Other Side
Golden State is 27-23 and clinging to the eighth seed in the West. They’re 17-8 at home, which is why this line exists, but they’re 10-15 on the road, which tells you they need Chase Center to compete. Curry is averaging 27.2 points and 4.8 assists, and he’s the only reliable scoring option left. Butler was averaging 20.0 points and 4.9 assists before his season-ending knee injury, and Kuminga was chipping in 12.1 points and 5.9 boards before his own knee soreness knocked him out indefinitely.
The Warriors allowed 131 to Detroit at home, and Cade Cunningham carved them up for 29 and 11 assists. That’s the problem—Golden State doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow down elite guards right now. Curry exited that game with right knee soreness, which is a massive red flag for this matchup. If Curry is limited or sits, the Warriors don’t have a backup plan. Buddy Hield and Moses Moody are getting more minutes, but neither can replicate what Butler or Kuminga provided. Golden State is hanging on by a thread, and Philadelphia’s backcourt speed could exploit a thin Warriors rotation.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to Curry’s health and whether Golden State can generate enough offense to keep pace with Maxey and Embiid. Philadelphia just scored 128 on a Clippers team that plays defense, and Golden State gave up 131 to Detroit at home. The Warriors’ defensive efficiency has cratered without Butler and Kuminga, and the 76ers have the perimeter shooting to punish switching schemes. Maxey’s speed in transition and Embiid’s post presence create mismatches that Golden State can’t answer with their current depth chart.
The total at 219.0 feels reachable if both teams push pace. Philadelphia’s recent win over the Clippers saw them shoot efficiently from deep, and Golden State’s home losses have featured high-scoring outputs from opponents. The Warriors need Curry to play 35-plus minutes and score 30-plus to have a chance, but his knee soreness makes that uncertain. If Curry sits or plays limited minutes, this line should move toward Philadelphia by 3-4 points. Even if Curry plays, the 76ers have the depth advantage right now with Maxey, Embiid, and Barlow all contributing at a high level.
Philadelphia’s road record (13-8) suggests they can handle this spot, and Golden State’s home defense has been porous without their top perimeter defenders. The 76ers are getting 2.5 points in a matchup where they have the healthier roster and the hotter hand. That’s value.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking Philadelphia +2.5 for 2 units. The 76ers are riding a four-game win streak with Maxey playing at an elite level, and Golden State is missing two rotation cornerstones in Butler and Kuminga. Curry’s knee soreness adds another layer of uncertainty, and even if he plays, the Warriors don’t have the defensive personnel to slow down Maxey and Embiid. Philadelphia’s 13-8 road record shows they can win in hostile environments, and Chase Center isn’t as intimidating when the home team is this banged up.
The risk is Curry going nuclear and carrying Golden State to a home win, but the 76ers have enough firepower to match that output. Maxey just dropped 29 with seven triples, and Embiid is healthy enough to dominate the paint. Philadelphia is the better team right now, and getting 2.5 points with the healthier roster is the right side of this number. If you want to get aggressive, the moneyline at +112 offers value for an outright win, but I’m comfortable with the cushion.
BASH’S BEST BET: 76ers +2.5 for 2 units.
