Boston Celtics (50-32 SU 32-48-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (47-35 SU 42-39-1) American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL 7 PM EST Friday April 23, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Celtics +4 / Heat -4
Over/Under: 182
Wager on Boston Celtics playoff games at -105 instead of -110 when you place your bets at 5Dimes.
Boston leads this best of 7 series 2-0.
Tonight the Miami Heat host the Boston Celtics and are down 0-2 in this series after wasting a golden opportunity to steal a game in Boston. In Game 2 Kevin Garnett was suspended, but the Heat did not take advantage and were crushed by 29 points. This is, pretty much, a must win game for the Heat, as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history.
Dwayne Wade and Michael Beasley combined for 42 points in Game 2, but the other Miami starters were terrible combining for only 11 points on 4/23 shooting. Jermaine O’Neal only had 2 points on 1/10 shooting and he only grabbed 5 boards. He has to play much better tonight, as he is the only legit inside presence the Heat have.
Boston crushed Miami in Game 2 winning 106-77 on Tuesday night.
This season the Heat are 24-17 at home and the Celtics are 26-15 on the road.
The Heat were out-rebounded by 17 boards in Game 2 (50-33) and they have to hit the glass tonight or they will be in big trouble.
KG will be back tonight, but the Heat have a lot of other worries, as his replacement in Game 2 Glen Davis scored 23 points and grabbed 8 rebounds and the Celtics shot 60% from beyond the 3-point arc. The Heat have to play better perimeter defense, as in Game 2 Ray Allen (7/9) and Paul Pierce (2/3) were on fire from 3-pt land.
The Celtics have beaten the Heat in 13 of their last 14 games including this season’s playoffs.
In both games in Boston the Celtics have gone on huge runs, a 34-10 run in the 2nd half of Game 1 and a 44-8 run in Game 2, and the Heat cannot allow that to happen tonight.
In Game 2 the high scorer for Boston was Ray Allen going for 25 points on 9/13 shooting and for Miami was Dwayne Wade going for 29 points on 11/18 shooting. For the game the Celtics shot 36/75 from the floor for a FG% of 48% and the Heat were ice cold, ha ha ha, only shooting 29/76 for a FG% of 38.2%. The Celtics killed the Heat on he boards (50 to 33) and each team had 13 turnovers.
This season the Celtics ranked 19th in the league in scoring (99.2 ppg) and the Heat ranked 25th (96.5 ppg). On D the Heat ranked 2nd in the league in opponents’ points allowed (94.2 ppg) and the Celtics ranked 5th (95.6 ppg). The Heat were a tad better on the boards this season, but not in the playoffs so far, as they had a rebounding differential of +1.1 rpg and the Celtics were at -1.2 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Celtics rank 9th (93.61) and the heat rank 13th (91.35).
Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Miami has an Over record of 9-4 in their last 13 home games, an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.
Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog.
Boston has an Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 games and an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Boston is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Miami.
On the injury front neither team is reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: The Heat wasted their chance to win in Boston without the Celtics’ defensive stopper in the lineup and I think that will cost them. The Celtics had a better road record than home record this season and they have owned the Heat in the last couple of seasons. Boston will come out firing, as they have a ton of confidence and they will win this game, cover, and take a 3-0 lead in this series.
