RBD breaks down Boston vs Golden State with a totals betting prediction, weighing All-Star break trends and his top handicapping models.
Tonight, the NBA returns from action after the All-Star break. This means that after a few days with no games on the schedule a lot of NBA bettors will be starved for some action.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at some possible scenarios.
Rust vs Rest?
First question is – rust vs rest.
Does the unusual number of days off between games have an effect on how teams perform?
My first thought is to relate it to NFL play.
Defenses are usually ahead of offenses early in the season because offenses need repetition to get the timing down between quarterbacks and receivers.
Is there something similar in the NBA, will the defenses be rested tonight while the offenses will be slightly off because they haven’t seen real game action in a week?
First stop – last year’s calendar.
The first day of a full schedule was a Thursday, just like today. Thursday, February 21st, 2025 saw a total of nine games played.
Unders went 7-2.
There was a single game played on Wednesday and it also went Under.
That means eight of the first 10 games played by teams coming off the extended rest from the All Star break saw 80% of them stay Under the post total.
Does that mean it’ll happen again this year?
No, not necessarily. But it’s definitely something you want to have in mind as you’re looking at tonight’s card if you’re thinking about playing a total.
Model Check
Next stop for me was my own handicapping models.
I want to see if I have any spots that point me towards taking an Under.
After running the numbers I have four games that qualify for totals:
T1 has Bos/GS Over and Den/LAC Ov.
T1 has a record of 25-15 on Overs.
T2 has Hou/Char Ov, ATL/Phil Over, and Bos/GS Over.
T2 has a record of 41-31 on Overs.
Based on last year’s 2-8 Ov/Un I was hoping for a spot for an Under, but none of my models kicked out a play on one.
And with records of 25-15 and 41-31 none of the models have a record that would tell me to Fade one of the Overs and take an Under.
Finding the Action
So where can I go for action?
I have a match in that both models tell me to take the Bos/GS game Over.
At 25-15, T1 is hitting at 62%.
At 41-31 T2 is hitting at 57%, just a hair under the 58% I like to use as the standard before putting my money down.
Combined they’re 66-46, 59%.
And when I have a match the record is 6-1 on Overs, good for an 85% hit rate.
I also have one more stat I like for this spot.
Without boring you with the details, I have a subcategory that this game qualifies for.
It has a record of 12-6 to the Over, 67%.
Still, I’m not crazy about going against the numbers I mentioned above that point towards leaning towards Unders tonight. So I went back one year further and checked Thursday after the All-Star break from the previous season.
The record on Over/Unders was 6-6, no edge to the Under.
Right now the game is available anywhere from 211′ to 212′.
Only two of Boston’s last five road games have surpassed tonight’s number.
Four of Golden State’s last five home games have surpassed tonight’s number.
Tatum, Butler, and Curry are all out but that’s not new news and hopefully the benches will be ready to do some scoring tonight.
My Play
Bos/GS Over (wait to buy)
Recap
Recap: 1-1
Record: 12-9
Review
In my last article, I took the 76’ers -2′ to beat the Knicks.
In 48 minutes of basketball, bettors (like me) who wagered on Philadelphia and watched the game on TV didn’t enjoy a single minute when their team had the spread covered.
In 2,880 seconds of basketball, 76’er backers experience zero seconds of temporary joy.
In other words, it was an ass-kicking from the opening tip-off to the closing buzzer.
The Knicks crushed the Sixers by 49 points;
51 and a half if you want to count the spread.
It was a case where I should have waited to get an update on Embiid. He was listed as a game time decision. He didn’t play. And for the second game in a row without him the Sixers got crushed.
Fortunately I came back the next night with a forum pick using Milwaukee getting 13′ from OKC.
My notes said the Thunder were 1-7 ATS when playing in Game two of B2B’s (for stats on a couple of NBA teams in these B2B spots, Game one and Game two, check out my previous article (link here.)
Milwaukee won straight up by 17, meaning they covered the spread by more than 30 points.
The Thunder are now 1-8 ATS when playing in Game two – Mark Your Calendar!!!
