Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden
The Knicks are 15.5-point favorites with a total of 219.5 at most books, and my play is Knicks -15.5 (-111).
That is a huge number for a team that has covered three times all season. I know. But look at who walks into the Garden tonight: a Milwaukee team that lost at home to Boston on Sunday, flew east, and now plays its second game in two nights against the defending champions.
Life after Giannis is getting ugly fast
The Bucks traded Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami on July 6, and the bill has come due. Milwaukee is 1-9, has dropped six straight, and is tied for the worst 10-game start in franchise history, according to CBS Sports. During this skid they’ve been outscored by 15.7 points a night.
The defense is the real problem. Milwaukee gives up 121.6 points per game, third-most in the league, and Basketball Reference has the Bucks allowing almost 122 points per 100 trips, which is bottom-tier stuff. They jack up the second-most threes in the NBA and make about a third of them. Shoot that much and miss that often, and the other team gets a lot of fast breaks.
Tyler Herro (21.4 points) and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.2) are the best of the Miami return, but Herro is questionable with a right knee contusion on the league’s injury report. First-year coach Taylor Jenkins isn’t sugarcoating it: “We just have to focus on tomorrow,” he said after the Boston loss.
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Brunson has found his legs again
New York opened 0-3, the first defending champ to do that since the 2011-12 Mavericks. Since then the Knicks have won five of six, and those five wins came by an average of 15 points. Jalen Brunson is averaging 32 points over his last two games and hit 8 of 17 from deep in that stretch, and he scored the first 18 points of a 29-17 run that broke Cleveland open on Saturday.
“I think we’re in a good place,” Brunson said. “…just going to try to do our best to not be complacent.”
Karl-Anthony Towns is putting up 20.9 points and 13.6 boards a night. Against a Bucks frontcourt that can’t hold up, he should have the glass to himself. The Knicks have also had two days off. The Bucks had none.
The case against me
There’s a reason this is a lean and not a hammer. New York is just 3-6 against the spread. Its schedule has been soft too: Basketball Reference’s schedule-adjusted numbers have the Knicks closer to average than elite. My own math puts the fair line right around 15 or 16, so the back-to-back is the tiebreaker. Fifteen-point favorites also rest starters late, and a Bucks bench that keeps shooting threes can sneak through the back door in garbage time. Josh Hart (ankle) is questionable too, and that hurts the Knicks’ depth.
Still, a tired team that can’t defend, on the road, against a rested champ that just found its rhythm? I’ll lay it.
Projected score: Knicks 121, Bucks 103
The Pick: Knicks -15.5 (-111)
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