The Knicks are a heavy home favorite against a reeling Bucks team. We break down the injury situation and New York’s home dominance to deliver a high-value ATS pick for the November 28th slate.
The Setup: Bucks at Knicks
The Knicks are laying 7.5 points at Madison Square Garden against a Bucks team that’s missing their entire identity. Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with a thigh injury, and let me tell you something—Milwaukee without the Greek Freak isn’t the same animal. The books are begging you to take the Bucks at +7.5 with that juicy +230 moneyline, making you think you’re getting value on a playoff-caliber team. But here’s the reality: Milwaukee is 8-11 overall and a pathetic 3-5 on the road. Meanwhile, the Knicks are sitting pretty at 11-6 with an 8-1 home record. The market’s not disrespecting Milwaukee here—it’s pricing in exactly what we’re about to see: a beatdown at The Garden. Jalen Brunson just dropped 33 points in Charlotte, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging a double-double, and this Knicks squad is rolling. I’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t end well for the visiting team.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: November 28, 2025, 7:30 ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Current Spread: Knicks -7.5 (-110) / Bucks +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -294 / Bucks +230
Total: 234.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down why Vegas set this number at 7.5, because it’s telling a very specific story. The Knicks are conference darlings right now, ranked 4th in the East while Milwaukee has fallen all the way to 11th. That’s not a typo—the Bucks are currently outside the playoff picture despite having Giannis putting up monster numbers: 31.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 6.8 APG. The problem? He might not even play, and without him, this team has zero offensive identity beyond Ryan Rollins trying to manufacture 18.6 PPG.
The total at 234.0 is intriguing because it suggests the books expect a competitive game with both teams scoring. But look at the Knicks’ recent performance—they just hung 129 points on Charlotte with Brunson (28.6 PPG) and Towns (22.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG) both firing on all cylinders. Josh Hart added 22 in that blowout, and they shot 13-of-26 from three. That’s the kind of offensive firepower that can blow past this total on their own.
The books know something here: the public sees “Bucks plus points” and thinks value. Sharp money knows what’s up here—this is exactly the spot where Milwaukee burns you. They just lost to Miami 106-103 in an NBA Cup game, and that Heat team isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. If you can’t beat Miami on a neutral NBA Cup night, how are you going to compete at Madison Square Garden against a Knicks team that’s 8-1 at home?
Bucks Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Milwaukee is in crisis mode, plain and simple. That 8-11 record isn’t a fluke—it’s who they are right now. The road splits tell the real story: 3-5 away from Fiserv Forum, and they’re heading into one of the toughest environments in basketball. Giannis is questionable, which means even if he plays, he’s not 100%. And when your entire offensive system runs through one guy averaging 31.2 points, any limitation is catastrophic.
The supporting cast is a patchwork of replacement-level talent. Ryan Rollins has stepped up with 18.6 PPG and 5.9 APG, but he’s not a guy who can carry you in a hostile road environment. Kyle Kuzma is chipping in 13.3 PPG, but that’s not nearly enough firepower to keep pace with what New York brings to the table. Kevin Porter Jr. is out with a knee injury, and Taurean Prince is done indefinitely after neck surgery.
The recent loss to Miami exposed everything wrong with this team. Tyler Herro scored 29, and the Bucks couldn’t get stops when it mattered. That’s been the pattern all season—they can score in spurts when Giannis is dominant, but the defense has been Swiss cheese, and the depth simply isn’t there. On the road against a Knicks team that’s clicking? This could get ugly fast.
Knicks Breakdown: The Other Side
New York is everything Milwaukee isn’t right now: cohesive, confident, and absolutely lethal at home. That 8-1 record at Madison Square Garden isn’t just impressive—it’s dominant. Jalen Brunson is playing like an All-NBA guard with 28.6 PPG and 6.3 APG, and he’s got the perfect running mate in Karl-Anthony Towns, who’s averaging 22.4 points and 12.3 boards per night.
The supporting cast is deep and versatile. Mikal Bridges gives you 16.4 PPG with elite two-way play, and Josh Hart just showed what he can do with 22 points in that Charlotte blowout. The Knicks made it rain from deep in that game, knocking down 13 threes, and that kind of shooting opens up everything for Brunson and Towns to operate.
Yes, they’re missing OG Anunoby (hamstring) and Landry Shamet (shoulder), but neither absence has slowed them down. The 11-6 record speaks for itself, and they’re ranked 4th in the Eastern Conference for a reason. This team has found its identity: play through Brunson and Towns, defend with intensity, and use The Garden crowd as a sixth man. That 129-101 destruction of Charlotte wasn’t an outlier—it’s what this team does to inferior competition at home.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
The contrast in home/road performance tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. The Knicks are 8-1 at Madison Square Garden while the Bucks are 3-5 on the road. That’s not just a statistical anomaly—it’s a fundamental difference in how these teams perform in different environments. New York feeds off that Garden energy, and Milwaukee has shown zero ability to steal games in hostile territory.
The scoring punch favors New York heavily. Brunson and Towns combine for 51 PPG, while Giannis might not even suit up. If he does play compromised, the Bucks’ offensive ceiling drops dramatically. Rollins and Kuzma combining for 31.9 PPG isn’t enough to keep pace with a Knicks team that just hung 129 on Charlotte and has multiple guys who can get hot from three.
The rebounding battle should favor Towns against whatever frontcourt Milwaukee throws out there. He’s averaging 12.3 RPG, and with Giannis questionable, there’s no one on the Bucks roster who can match his combination of size and skill on the glass. That means second-chance points for New York and fewer possessions for a Milwaukee offense that’s already struggling.
The public’s all over the Bucks getting points, thinking they’re catching value on a team that’s “better than their record.” But the numbers don’t lie: Milwaukee is exactly what their 8-11 record says they are—a flawed team that can’t defend, can’t win on the road, and is now potentially without their best player. This is exactly the spot where the Knicks put their foot on the gas and don’t let up.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m hammering the Knicks -7.5 before this line moves to double digits. This game has blowout written all over it. You’ve got a Knicks team that’s 8-1 at home facing a Bucks squad that’s 3-5 on the road and potentially without Giannis. Brunson is cooking, Towns is dominating the paint, and Madison Square Garden is going to be absolutely rocking on a Friday night.
The -7.5 feels light when you consider the matchup dynamics. Milwaukee just lost to Miami by 3 points, and the Heat aren’t nearly as good as this Knicks team. If the Bucks can’t handle Miami, they’re getting boat-raced in New York. I also like the Over 234.0 as a secondary play because the Knicks can get there on their own, and Milwaukee will have to push pace to stay competitive.
The Play: Knicks -7.5 (-110) for 2 units
Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m not buying it. This line’s a trap for Bucks believers, and sharp money knows what’s up here. The Knicks are going to handle business at home, and that 7.5 number is getting covered by halftime. Book it.
