The market is banking on a total Boston blowout, but check out our strong pick against the spread if you’re wondering if Chicago’s depth can keep this within two touchdowns while Jayson Tatum remains sidelined.
The Setup: Bulls at Celtics
Boston lays 13.5 points at TD Garden on Wednesday night against a Chicago squad that’s circling the drain at 24-30. The Celtics sit at 34-19 and second in the East, but they’re coming off a blowout home loss to the Knicks where they couldn’t buy a bucket. The Bulls just got torched in Brooklyn, and now they’re walking into a building where Boston is 17-9 this season. The line screams mismatch, but the context tells you exactly why this number landed in double digits. Chicago is 9-18 on the road, Josh Giddey remains doubtful for an eighth straight game, and Boston—even without Jayson Tatum—has enough offensive firepower to make this uncomfortable for a Bulls team that’s hemorrhaging 3.6 points per game on the season.
The market is betting on Boston’s elite talent advantage and home-court edge to overwhelm a depleted Chicago rotation. The question isn’t whether the Celtics should be favored—it’s whether 13.5 is too steep given Boston’s recent shooting struggles and Chicago’s ability to push pace when healthy.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Chicago Bulls (24-30) at Boston Celtics (34-19)
Date & Time: Wednesday, February 11, 2026, 7:30 ET
Venue: TD Garden
TV Network: Home: NBC Sports BO | Away: CHSN, NBA League Pass
Current Betting Lines (MyBookie.ag):
Spread: Boston Celtics -13.5 (-110) | Chicago Bulls +13.5 (-110)
Total: Over 225.0 (-110) | Under 225.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Boston Celtics -769 | Chicago Bulls +510
Why This Line Exists
This number makes perfect sense when you stack up the season-long profiles. Boston carries a plus-6.7 point differential compared to Chicago’s minus-3.6—that’s a 10.3-point gap right there. The Celtics are 17-9 at home, while the Bulls are 9-18 on the road. That’s a combined 26-game sample telling you Chicago struggles away from home and Boston defends their building reasonably well.
The injury situations push this further. Chicago is likely without Josh Giddey again—he’s been out seven straight and is listed doubtful. Giddey averages 18.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists, which means the Bulls are missing their primary playmaker and offensive hub. Meanwhile, Boston is without Jayson Tatum, but they’ve got Jaylen Brown averaging 29.4 points per game and a deeper rotation that can absorb the loss. Payton Pritchard and Derrick White combine for nearly 35 points per game, and Nikola Vucevic—yes, the former Bull—is chipping in 16.6 points and 9.0 boards.
The shooting splits favor Chicago slightly—47.1% from the field and 36.7% from three compared to Boston’s 46.6% and 36.2%—but those margins are negligible. What matters more is Boston’s 2.4-turnover advantage per game (12.1 vs 14.5) and their ability to generate defensive activity. The Celtics average 7.6 steals and 5.2 blocks compared to Chicago’s 7.4 and 5.0. Small edges, but they add up over 48 minutes when you’re trying to cover a big number.
Chicago Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Bulls score 117.0 points per game, which is actually 1.9 more than Boston’s 115.1. But that raw scoring number is misleading because Chicago is minus-3.6 on the season—they’re giving up more than they’re putting up. Without Giddey, the offensive responsibility falls on Anfernee Simons (14.5 points, 39.1% from three), Collin Sexton (14.4 points), and Matas Buzelis (15.2 points). That’s a solid trio, but none of them are primary creators like Giddey. Tre Jones will likely handle more ball-handling duties—he’s averaging 5.8 assists and shooting 55.0% from the field—but his 32.8% three-point percentage limits his floor-spacing ability.
Chicago’s assist edge is significant—29.3 per game compared to Boston’s 23.8—but that’s a product of Giddey’s playmaking when healthy. Without him, the Bulls become more isolation-heavy and less efficient in the halfcourt. They also turn the ball over 14.5 times per game, which is 2.4 more than Boston. Against a Celtics defense that generates 7.6 steals per game, those extra possessions become transition opportunities for Brown and company.
The Bulls are also dealing with the absence of Zach Collins (right big toe sprain) and Noa Essengue (out for the season), which thins their frontcourt depth. That’s a problem when you’re facing Vucevic and Neemias Queta, who combine for 25.8 points and 17.3 rebounds per game.
Boston Celtics Breakdown: The Other Side
Boston’s offense runs through Jaylen Brown, who’s averaging 29.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 48.4% shooting. He’s the clear alpha without Tatum, and the Celtics have enough secondary scoring to keep defenses honest. Derrick White (17.4 points, 5.5 assists) and Payton Pritchard (17.1 points, 5.3 assists) give Boston two more ball-handlers who can create in the pick-and-roll and knock down threes at a respectable clip.
The Celtics’ rebounding edge is real—they average 45.4 boards per game compared to Chicago’s 44.9, and they pull down 12.8 offensive rebounds compared to the Bulls’ 10.3. That’s a 2.5-board advantage on the offensive glass, which translates to extra possessions and second-chance points. Vucevic and Queta are both capable of controlling the paint, and with Chicago’s frontcourt depth compromised, Boston should dominate the glass.
Boston’s plus-6.7 point differential tells you they’re winning games by an average of nearly seven points. At home, they’re 17-9, which isn’t elite but it’s solid enough to trust against a sub-.500 road team. The Celtics also commit just 12.1 turnovers per game, which is crucial when you’re trying to control tempo and limit transition opportunities for a Bulls team that wants to push pace.
The concern here is Boston’s recent shooting performance. They got smoked by the Knicks at home, shooting poorly and never finding a rhythm offensively. If that carries over into Wednesday, 13.5 becomes a tougher cover.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Chicago can stay within striking distance by pushing pace and forcing Boston into a track meet. The Bulls average 29.3 assists per game, which suggests they want to move the ball and play fast. But without Giddey, their ability to generate clean looks in transition diminishes significantly. Boston, meanwhile, has the personnel to slow the game down and grind this out in the halfcourt.
The rebounding battle is critical. Boston’s 2.5-board advantage on the offensive glass means they’ll get more second-chance opportunities, and Chicago doesn’t have the size or depth to counteract that. Over 48 minutes, that’s an extra 3-5 possessions for Boston, which could be the difference between covering and pushing.
Turnovers are another key factor. Chicago gives the ball away 14.5 times per game, while Boston commits just 12.1. That’s a 2.4-turnover gap, and if Boston can force Chicago into 16-18 turnovers by pressuring Simons, Sexton, and Tre Jones, they’ll generate easy transition buckets for Brown, White, and Pritchard. The Celtics’ 7.6 steals per game suggest they’re active in the passing lanes, and Chicago’s turnover issues make them vulnerable.
The shooting splits are close enough that neither team has a significant edge from the field or beyond the arc. This isn’t a game where one team is going to shoot lights out and blow the doors off. It’s going to be decided by who controls the glass, who takes care of the ball, and who executes in the halfcourt. Boston has the advantage in all three areas, especially with Giddey likely out for Chicago.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m laying the 13.5 with Boston at home. The Celtics have too much firepower, too much depth, and too many advantages in the areas that matter—rebounding, turnovers, and defensive activity. Chicago is 9-18 on the road and likely without their best playmaker. Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.4 points per game and has enough help from White, Pritchard, and Vucevic to make this a comfortable win.
The risk here is Boston’s recent shooting struggles against the Knicks. If they come out flat again and can’t find a rhythm offensively, 13.5 becomes a sweat. But I trust the talent gap and the home-court advantage to push this into a double-digit win. Chicago doesn’t have the horses to hang with a motivated Celtics team that’s looking to bounce back from a bad loss.
BASH’S BEST BET: Boston Celtics -13.5 for 2 units.
Boston covers at home, and it’s not as close as the final score suggests. Take the Celtics and don’t overthink it.
