Just 48 hours after a three-point nail-biter in Chicago, the Bulls and Heat meet again in an unprecedented scheduling quirk. With Miami’s backcourt depth tested and the Bulls seeking revenge, our best bet analysis explores if Chicago can flip the script at Kaseya Center.
The Setup: Bulls at Heat
The Bulls head down to Miami as 5.5-point road dogs on Saturday night, just two days after the Heat escaped Chicago with a 116-113 win. That narrow margin matters here. Miami led by 13 in the fourth before the Bulls clawed back, and now Chicago gets another crack at a Heat squad that’s suddenly thin in the backcourt. Tyler Herro remains out for his ninth straight game, and Terry Rozier won’t be available due to off-court legal issues. That’s 44.9 combined points per game sitting on the sideline while the Bulls—despite their 8-14 road record—just proved they can hang with this version of Miami. The line opened at 5.5, and that number feels generous given the context of Thursday’s game and the personnel Miami’s missing.
Chicago sits at 23-25 overall but 15-11 at home and 8-14 on the road. Miami checks in at 26-23 with a 15-8 home mark. The Heat are the better team on paper, but the gap narrows considerably when you account for who’s actually available. Norman Powell has been excellent—averaging 23.0 points per game this season—but asking him to carry the offensive load two games in a row against the same opponent is a different ask than doing it once. The Bulls know what’s coming now, and they’ve got the defensive length to make Powell work for everything.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Time: 8:00 ET
Location: Kaseya Center
TV: FanDuel SN Sun (Home), CHSN, NBA League Pass (Away)
Current Spread: Bulls +5.5 (-110) | Heat -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bulls +174 | Heat -217
Total: Over/Under 235.5 (-110)
Why This Line Exists
Miami’s getting 5.5 points at home because they’re 15-8 at Kaseya Center and just beat this Bulls team 48 hours ago. The market respects home court, and the Heat have been a reliable cover team in their building this season. But the oddsmakers are also acknowledging Miami’s backcourt depletion. Herro’s 21.9 points per game and Rozier’s absence create a significant usage void that Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo can only partially fill. Powell dropped 21 on Thursday and Adebayo added 20 points with 12 rebounds, but those performances came with Herro already sidelined—this isn’t a new adjustment for Miami.
The total sitting at 235.5 reflects both teams’ recent offensive output. Thursday’s game landed at 229 total points, and that was with Chicago trailing by double digits for much of the second half before mounting a late push. The Bulls shot themselves back into the game down the stretch, and that kind of variance can happen again. Miami’s offense runs through Powell and Adebayo in pick-and-roll actions, and Chicago showed Thursday they can defend those sets when locked in. The question becomes whether Miami can generate enough efficient offense over 48 minutes without their second and third leading scorers, or if the Bulls’ length and defensive versatility forces Miami into contested looks late in the shot clock.
This line also accounts for Chicago’s road struggles—8-14 away from home isn’t inspiring confidence. But context matters. The Bulls are playing their second game in three days against the same opponent, which means less travel fatigue and more familiarity with Miami’s rotations and tendencies. Chicago knows exactly what Miami’s going to run, and they’ve already seen Powell’s shot diet. That familiarity is worth at least a point or two in line value.
Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Chicago’s offense flows through Josh Giddey and Coby White, who both average 18.6 points per game. Giddey adds 8.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists, making him the primary facilitator. Nikola Vucevic chips in 17.0 points and 9.1 rebounds, giving the Bulls a legitimate post presence that Miami has to account for. Ayo Dosunmu led Chicago with 23 points on Thursday, and his ability to attack downhill and get to the rim creates problems for Miami’s perimeter defense when Rozier and Herro aren’t available to match his athleticism.
The Bulls’ road record is concerning, but their recent performance in Miami’s building suggests they’re capable of staying within this number. Chicago trailed 104-92 with just over eight minutes left and still made it a one-possession game in the final minute. That kind of resilience matters in a rematch, especially when the opponent is dealing with rotation limitations. Chicago’s length on the perimeter—Giddey at 6’8″, Dosunmu at 6’5″, and White at 6’4″—allows them to switch actions and contest Powell’s catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Chicago’s missing Zach Collins, Noa Essengue, and Tre Jones, but none of those absences significantly alter their rotation in this matchup. Collins suffered a right big toe sprain in late December and isn’t expected back until early February. Essengue is out for the season, and Jones has been sidelined since late January. The Bulls’ core rotation remains intact, and that continuity matters against a Heat team that’s had to adjust its entire backcourt hierarchy.
Heat Breakdown: The Other Side
Miami’s offense runs through Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo, and both delivered on Thursday. Powell’s averaging 23.0 points per game this season, and he’s been Miami’s most consistent scoring threat since Herro went down. Adebayo’s 18.0 points and 9.8 rebounds anchor both ends, and his ability to facilitate from the elbow makes him the hub of Miami’s offense. But asking Powell to replicate his Thursday performance in a back-to-back situation against the same defense is a tougher proposition than it sounds.
The Heat are 15-8 at home, which reflects their ability to defend their building and execute in late-game situations. But Thursday’s win required Miami to withstand a furious Chicago comeback, and the margin for error is razor-thin without Herro and Rozier. Davion Mitchell is doubtful for Saturday, which means Miami’s backcourt depth remains compromised. Dru Smith and Kasparas Jakucionis have absorbed minutes, but neither provides the shot creation or spacing that Herro and Rozier bring.
Miami’s defensive efficiency keeps them in games, but their offensive ceiling drops considerably without multiple ball-handlers who can create advantages in isolation. Powell’s excellent off the catch, but he needs someone to set him up. Adebayo can facilitate, but he’s not a primary pick-and-roll ball-handler who breaks down defenses off the bounce. That limits Miami’s offensive versatility, and Chicago’s length on the perimeter compounds the problem.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game comes down to Miami’s ability to generate efficient offense without Herro and Rozier. Powell and Adebayo combined for 41 points on Thursday, but Chicago’s defense tightened in the fourth quarter and nearly stole the game. The Bulls forced Miami into contested jumpers late, and that defensive intensity should carry over into Saturday’s rematch. Chicago knows Miami’s offensive sets now, and they’ve seen how Powell operates off screens and in transition.
The pace matters here. Miami prefers to control tempo and execute in the halfcourt, which plays into Chicago’s hands. The Bulls can match Miami’s physicality in the paint with Vucevic, and Giddey’s playmaking allows Chicago to generate quality looks in transition before Miami’s defense gets set. If Chicago pushes the pace and forces Miami into scramble situations, the Heat’s lack of backcourt depth becomes a liability.
Chicago’s shot distribution on Thursday showed they’re willing to hunt threes and attack the rim. Dosunmu’s 23 points came on aggressive drives, and White’s ability to space the floor opened up driving lanes for Giddey. Miami’s defense can’t afford to help off shooters, which means Adebayo has to defend the paint one-on-one against Vucevic and Chicago’s cutters. That’s a tough assignment over 48 minutes, especially if Miami’s offense stalls and forces Adebayo to carry a heavier load on both ends.
The total at 235.5 feels slightly high given Miami’s personnel limitations. Chicago’s defense showed up in the fourth quarter on Thursday, and that same intensity applied over four quarters could keep this game in the 220s. Miami’s offense is good enough to score in the mid-110s at home, but Chicago’s length and familiarity with Miami’s sets should limit second-chance opportunities and transition buckets.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
I’m taking the Bulls plus the points. Chicago proved Thursday they can hang with this version of Miami, and the 5.5-point cushion feels like too many points given the context. Miami’s missing 44.9 combined points per game with Herro and Rozier out, and Powell can’t carry the entire offensive load two games in a row against the same defense. The Bulls have the length and versatility to contest Miami’s shots, and Giddey’s playmaking gives Chicago enough offensive balance to stay within this number.
The risk is Miami’s home-court advantage and their ability to execute in late-game situations. The Heat are 15-8 at Kaseya Center for a reason, and Adebayo’s two-way impact can swing close games. But Chicago’s familiarity with Miami’s rotations and their recent performance in this building suggests they’re live to cover or win outright. The Bulls are getting better than a touchdown in a game that should be decided by a possession or two.
BASH’S BEST BET: Bulls +5.5 for 2 units.
Chicago’s got the personnel to exploit Miami’s backcourt depletion, and the familiarity factor makes this number too generous. Take the points and trust the Bulls to keep it close.
