After digging into the transition data, the play here is to take the points with the home underdog. Bryan Bash explores why the 6-point spread is an overreaction to Cleveland’s recent win streak.
The Setup: Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets
The Cavaliers roll into Charlotte on Friday laying 6 points against a Hornets squad that’s been treading water at 26-30. Cleveland’s riding a six-game winning streak, and the market’s asking you to lay the number with the hotter team. But here’s where it gets interesting: the projection says this game lands at Hornets +0.7 after factoring in home court. That’s a 6.7-point edge on Charlotte catching six, and the efficiency gap between these teams isn’t nearly wide enough to justify this spread once you account for pace and matchup dynamics.
Cleveland’s been the better team this season—no question. Their +4.3 net rating beats Charlotte’s +1.8 by a comfortable margin. But that 2.5-point efficiency gap per 100 possessions doesn’t translate to six points in a single game, especially when Charlotte holds a +2.5 percentage point advantage on the offensive glass and gets to play at home. The Hornets are missing Miles Bridges to suspension and likely Coby White to a calf injury, but they’ve still got enough firepower with LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel to keep this competitive. This line doesn’t add up once you run the efficiency math against the expected possessions.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup: Cleveland’s the better team, but the market’s overvaluing their hot streak and undervaluing Charlotte’s ability to generate second-chance points and stay within striking distance at home.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 20, 2026, 7:00 ET
Venue: Spectrum Center
TV: Home: FanDuel SN SE | Away: FanDuel SN OH, NBA League Pass
Current Odds (MyBookie.ag):
- Spread: Charlotte Hornets +6.0 (-110) | Cleveland Cavaliers -6.0 (-110)
- Total: Over 233.5 (-110) | Under 233.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets +188 | Cleveland Cavaliers -238
Why This Line Exists
The market built this six-point spread around Cleveland’s superior season-long profile and their current momentum. The Cavs just demolished Brooklyn 112-84 on Thursday, extending their win streak to six games while covering easily. Charlotte, meanwhile, dropped a tight one to Houston 105-101 despite staying competitive throughout. When you’re coming off a blowout win and facing a team that just lost a close game, the perception gap widens.
But perception and reality split when you dig into the efficiency numbers. Cleveland’s 115.0 offensive rating against Charlotte’s 112.1 defensive rating creates a +2.9-point offensive advantage for the Cavs per 100 possessions. Flip it around: Charlotte’s 113.9 offensive rating against Cleveland’s 110.7 defensive rating gives the Hornets a +3.2-point edge when they have the ball. Those matchup numbers are basically even, yet the spread suggests Cleveland dominates both sides.
The pace blend projects 102.2 possessions in this game—Cleveland runs at 103.7, Charlotte at 100.7, so we’re looking at an up-tempo contest that favors Cleveland’s style slightly. But even with that possession advantage, the math doesn’t support a six-point margin. The projection lands at Charlotte by 0.7 points after including home court, which means the market’s giving Cleveland roughly 6.7 points of credit they haven’t earned through efficiency differentials alone.
this number points to recency bias. Cleveland’s been excellent lately, winning 11 of their last 12, but that hot streak doesn’t fundamentally change who these teams are over 102 possessions. The Hornets’ 29.7% offensive rebounding rate beats Cleveland’s 27.3% by 2.5 percentage points, which translates to extra possessions and second-chance points that keep games closer than the talent gap suggests.
Cleveland Cavaliers Breakdown: What You Need to Know
The Cavaliers are scoring 119.8 points per game with a 117.4 offensive rating that ranks among the league’s elite. Donovan Mitchell leads the charge at 28.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting and 37.7% from three, while James Harden adds 24.8 points and 8.2 assists nightly. That backcourt duo gives Cleveland multiple creators who can attack in isolation or run pick-and-roll with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Cleveland’s shooting quality sits at 59.0% true shooting and 55.7% effective field goal percentage, both solid marks that reflect their ability to generate good looks. They’re converting 47.7% from the field overall and 35.8% from deep—nothing spectacular from distance, but efficient enough when combined with their interior presence. Allen shoots 62.3% from the floor, and Mobley adds 51.3%, giving them two legitimate rim threats.
Defensively, Cleveland allows 112.9 points per 100 possessions, which is respectable but not dominant. They force turnovers at just a 12.4% rate, meaning they’re not disrupting possessions—they’re making you earn your points through execution. The Cavs’ 27.3% defensive rebounding rate leaves them vulnerable to second-chance opportunities, which is exactly where Charlotte can exploit them.
In clutch situations, Cleveland’s been mediocre: 13-14 record in games decided by five or fewer in the final five minutes, shooting just 40.5% from the field and 30.8% from three in those spots. They’re not a team that consistently closes tight games, which matters if Charlotte keeps this within one possession down the stretch.
Charlotte Hornets Breakdown: The Other Side
Charlotte’s offense runs at 116.7 points per 100 possessions, just 0.7 points behind Cleveland’s defensive rating. They’re scoring 115.4 points per game with a balanced attack: Brandon Miller at 20.5 points, LaMelo Ball at 19.1 points and 7.4 assists, Kon Knueppel at 18.8 points, and Coby White at 18.6 points—though White’s doubtful for this one with a calf injury.
The Hornets shoot 37.2% from three-point range, better than Cleveland’s mark, and they convert 58.5% true shooting overall. Their 54.6% effective field goal percentage sits about one percentage point behind the Cavs, which is within noise—there’s no meaningful shooting quality gap here. What separates Charlotte is their 29.7% offensive rebounding rate, which creates extra possessions and keeps defensive breakdowns from ending possessions cleanly.
Defensively, Charlotte allows 114.8 points per 100 possessions, about four points worse than Cleveland. They’re not stopping anyone consistently, but they force 13.9% turnovers, slightly better than the Cavs. The defensive rebounding numbers favor Charlotte by nearly four percentage points, meaning they’re limiting opponents’ second chances while creating their own on offense.
Without Miles Bridges (suspended) and likely without Coby White (calf), Charlotte loses some depth, but their core remains intact. Miller, Ball, and Knueppel give them three legitimate scorers who can create offense in different ways. In clutch situations, Charlotte’s 9-15 with a 37.5% win rate, worse than Cleveland’s 48.1%, but they’ve shown they can hang in tight games even if they don’t always finish.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game projects to 102.2 possessions, which tilts slightly toward Cleveland’s preferred pace but isn’t extreme enough to fundamentally alter Charlotte’s offensive approach. Over those 102 possessions, the efficiency math says Cleveland should score about 116.1 points while Charlotte puts up 114.8—a margin of 1.3 points before home court, 0.7 after.
The key battleground is the offensive glass. Charlotte’s 2.5 percentage point advantage in offensive rebounding rate translates to roughly 2-3 extra possessions per game, which at their offensive efficiency means an additional 5-7 points of expected value. Cleveland’s not a strong defensive rebounding team, and Charlotte attacks the glass aggressively with multiple players crashing. That rebounding edge keeps possessions alive and prevents Cleveland from getting out in transition after defensive stops.
The effective field goal percentage gap sits at just 1.0 percentage point in Cleveland’s favor—basically within noise. Neither team holds a meaningful shooting quality advantage, which means this comes down to possessions and execution rather than one side generating significantly better looks. When the shooting quality is this close, the team getting more possessions through offensive rebounds has a real edge in keeping the margin tight.
Cleveland’s turnover rate of 12.4% beats Charlotte’s 13.9% by 1.5 percentage points, giving the Cavs slightly cleaner possessions. But that advantage gets offset by Charlotte’s rebounding edge and home court. The efficiency gap between these teams—2.5 points per 100 possessions in Cleveland’s favor—doesn’t support a six-point spread when you factor in Charlotte’s ability to generate extra possessions and the natural variance in a single game.
I’ve seen this movie before: a hot team getting too much credit for recent results against a home underdog with enough offensive firepower to stay within the number. Cleveland’s the better team, but not by six points in this specific matchup.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Charlotte Hornets +6.0 for 2 units
The market’s disrespecting Charlotte here. My model projects this game at Hornets +0.7, which gives us a 6.7-point edge on the spread. That’s strong value on a home team that can score, crashes the offensive glass, and faces a Cleveland squad that doesn’t close possessions cleanly on the defensive end. The Cavs are the better team—their net rating advantage is real—but that advantage doesn’t translate to six points when Charlotte holds rebounding and home court edges.
Cleveland’s coming off a back-to-back after demolishing Brooklyn on Thursday, which could affect their energy levels late if this game stays close. Charlotte’s had extra rest and gets to play in front of their home crowd with playoff positioning still in reach. The Hornets don’t need to win this game outright; they just need to stay within six, and the efficiency math says they should be in this game throughout.
The main risk is Cleveland’s superior talent simply overwhelming Charlotte in the fourth quarter. Mitchell and Harden are both capable of taking over late, and Charlotte’s clutch execution has been shaky all season. But we’re not betting Charlotte to win—we’re betting them to cover six points at home against a team whose efficiency advantage doesn’t justify this spread. I’m taking the points all day long.
The total sits at 233.5 with a projection of 230.8, giving us a 2.7-point edge toward the under. That’s medium value, but I’m more confident in the spread play given Charlotte’s ability to keep this competitive through rebounding and home court. If you want a second play, the under has merit, but the Hornets plus the points is where the real value sits.
