Can the Celtics overcome the absence of Jayson Tatum to cover the number in Portland? Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and why this ATS pick offers significant value for Sunday’s cross-conference clash.
The Setup: Celtics at Trail Blazers
The Celtics are laying 6.5 points in Portland on Sunday night, and on the surface, this number makes sense. Boston sits at 19-11 and third in the Eastern Conference, while Portland is struggling at 12-19 and tenth in the West. But here’s the thing — this isn’t just about record differential. Once you dig into the matchup data and account for Portland’s injury situation, this line starts to look like it’s giving you value on the wrong side.
Let me walk you through why this line exists and why I’m backing Boston to cover at the Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Celtics just dropped 140 on Indiana with Jaylen Brown going for 30 and Payton Pritchard adding 29. Meanwhile, Portland got torched by the Clippers 119-103 at home, and they’re about to face a Celtics squad that’s hitting 20 threes per game when they’re rolling. The market is respecting Portland’s home floor, but I keep coming back to this efficiency gap — and the injuries that make it even wider.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: December 28, 2025, 6:00 ET
Venue: Moda Center at the Rose Quarter
Spread: Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) / Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -256 / Trail Blazers +202
Total: 229.0 (Over/Under -110)
Why This Line Exists
The 6.5-point spread is the market’s way of accounting for a few factors: Portland’s home court, Boston’s road record of 9-6, and the general assumption that the Blazers can keep this competitive in front of their crowd. The Celtics are -256 on the moneyline, which translates to about a 72% win probability — that’s solid, but it’s not overwhelming.
Here’s where the line gets interesting. Portland is missing two rotation pieces in Jerami Grant and Robert Williams III. Grant was averaging 20.0 points per game, and Williams provided rim protection and rebounding. Without them, the Blazers are leaning heavily on Deni Avdija (25.6 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (21.9 PPG) to carry the offensive load. That’s not a bad duo, but when you’re facing a Celtics team with Jaylen Brown averaging 29.4 points and multiple scoring threats, depth becomes critical.
The total of 229.0 tells you the market expects pace and scoring. Boston just put up 140 in their last game, and they made 20 threes doing it. Portland allowed 119 to the Clippers at home, and that was with Brook Lopez going nuclear from deep. The Celtics have more weapons, better ball movement, and a rotation that can exploit Portland’s depleted frontcourt. That’s not just a stat — it’s how this game tilts.
Celtics Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Boston is 19-11 and playing their best basketball when Jaylen Brown is aggressive. He’s averaging 29.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, and he shot 13-of-20 against Indiana. When Brown is in attack mode, the Celtics become nearly impossible to slow down because they have so many secondary options. Derrick White is chipping in 18.3 points and 5.1 assists, and Payton Pritchard is giving them 17.2 points off the bench with elite three-point shooting.
The Celtics are without Jayson Tatum, who’s been ruled out since early in the season with an Achilles issue, and Chris Boucher is out for personal reasons. But here’s the thing — Boston has adapted. Their offense is built on ball movement, three-point volume, and multiple creators. They don’t need one guy to dominate; they can beat you with balance and efficiency.
On the road, Boston is 9-6, which is solid but not elite. However, they’re facing a Portland team that’s 5-9 at home and missing key rotation players. The matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests when you factor in Portland’s inability to match Boston’s depth and offensive firepower.
Trail Blazers Breakdown: The Other Side
Portland is 12-19 and struggling to find consistency. Deni Avdija has been excellent, averaging 25.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. Shaedon Sharpe is developing into a legitimate scorer at 21.9 points per game. But without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams III, the Blazers are thin. Scoot Henderson is also out with a hamstring injury, which removes another playmaker from the rotation.
The Blazers are 5-9 at home, and they just lost to the Clippers by 16 in their own building. That’s concerning when you’re about to face a Celtics team that’s more balanced and deeper than LA. Portland’s offense can score — they have weapons — but their defense is vulnerable, especially in the paint without Williams and on the perimeter without Grant’s versatility.
Here’s the reality: Portland needs everything to go right to keep this within single digits. They need Avdija and Sharpe to be efficient, they need Boston to go cold from three, and they need to avoid foul trouble with their limited frontcourt depth. That’s a lot of dominoes that have to fall perfectly.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided on two fronts: perimeter shooting and depth. Boston just made 20 threes against Indiana, and they have multiple guys who can get hot — Brown, Pritchard, White. Portland allowed the Clippers to shoot efficiently from deep, and Boston has more shooting threats than LA did in that game.
The other factor is rotation depth. Boston can go 9-10 deep and not lose much production. Portland is playing a tighter rotation because of injuries, and that matters over 48 minutes. When you do the math over 95-100 possessions, Boston’s ability to maintain offensive efficiency while Portland’s defense wears down is the difference between a 4-point game and a 10-point game.
I keep coming back to this efficiency gap. Boston’s offense is humming, and Portland’s defense is compromised without Grant and Williams. The Celtics don’t need to blow them out early — they just need to stay efficient and let Portland’s lack of depth catch up to them in the second half.
The main risk here is Portland’s home crowd keeping this close and the Blazers getting hot from three. Avdija and Sharpe are capable of big nights, and if they combine for 55-60 points on high efficiency, this game stays tight. But I’ve accounted for the home court — and it still doesn’t get there. Boston’s depth and offensive balance should be enough to cover 6.5.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
The Play: Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110) | 2 Units
I’m backing Boston to cover 6.5 on the road. The Celtics have the depth, the offensive firepower, and the matchup advantage to win this game by double digits. Portland is missing two key rotation players, and their defense can’t match up with Boston’s balanced attack. Jaylen Brown is playing at an elite level, and the supporting cast is giving him everything he needs.
The main risk is Portland’s home court and the potential for Avdija and Sharpe to go off. But even if they play well, I don’t see Portland’s defense holding up for 48 minutes against a Celtics team that can score from anywhere. This matchup narrows the margin more than the line suggests, and I’m comfortable laying the points with the better, deeper team.
Boston -6.5. Lock it in.
