Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Pick ATS 1/14/22

by | Jan 14, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (22-19 SU, 21-20-0 ATS) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (30-14 SU, 29-15-0 ATS)

When: Friday, January 14th, 2022, 10:00 pm (ET)

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: DAL +3.0/MEM -3.0 (Opened at 3.5 at Bovada - A sportsbook where your credit card WILL work for deposits!)

Total: 217 (Opened at 217)

Money Line: DAL +150/MEM -125

Power Rating: MEM -7

Probable Starting Lineups

Dallas Mavericks: PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber, C Dwight Powell

Memphis Grizzlies: PG Ja Morant, SG Desmond Bane, SF Ziaire Williams, PF Jaren Jackson, C Kyle Anderson

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks: F Kristaps Porzingis *Out* (Covid), C Willie Cauley-Stein *Out* (Personal)

Memphis Grizzlies: F Killian Tillie *Out* (Covid), F Dillon Brooks *Out* (Ankle), C Steven Adams *Out* (Covid), F Yves Pons *Out* (Ankle)

Recent Form

The Dallas Mavericks enter this matchup with a 22-19 record and sit 5th in the Western Conference standings. Dallas has had an exceptional start to the month, going 5-1 in their first six games of January. Their first loss of the new year came last time on the floor against the Knicks in a lopsided 108-85 final. Having an overall admirable season, the Mavericks have hung their hat on their stellar defensive play. Dallas has held six of their last eight opponents under 100 points, thanks to being one of the best teams in the league at not allowing offensive rebounds. The Mavericks allow just 9.0 offensive rebounds per game and 8.5 while playing on the road, both stats of which are best in the NBA. Without the size and versatility of Porzingis in the lineup, the Mavericks will be tested in this game against one of the league’s top offenses. Dallas is led in scoring by Luka Doncic, who is averaging 24.7 PPG this season. As a team, the Mavericks sit as the 25th scoring offense, averaging 105.3 PPG. Defensively, this team is 3rd in the NBA, allowing just 103.4 PPG.

The Memphis Grizzlies head into this game against the Mavericks with a 30-14 record and sit 3rd in the Western Conference. Memphis is, without a doubt, the hottest team in basketball right now, riding an eleven-game win streak. In that amazing streak, the Grizzlies have topped some of the league’s top talent, including the Nets, Lakers, and Warriors. Being one of the best offenses in the league hasn’t been easy since the team was without Ja Morant for a stretch of games but has burst onto the scene since his return and hasn’t looked back. Despite playing the point guard position, Morant plays much bigger and is one of the most explosive players when going downhill to the basket. Much to his credit, the Grizzlies are the best in the NBA at scoring points in the paint, averaging 55.3 per game. Also, a part of their success has been their ability to move the ball with ease against any team by being one of the fastest-paced teams and averaging 92.9 field goals per game. The Grizzlies are led by Ja Morant, who is averaging 24.9 PPG this season. As a team, Memphis has the 3rd best scoring offense at 112.3 PPG. Defensively, they’ve hovered around the middle the entire season and currently hold the 16th spot, giving up 107.9 PPG.

Mavericks on the Road

While Dallas comes in with an even 11-11 road record, they have been trending up overall on the road. For starters, Dallas is very even keel between their home and away defense, allowing just 104.5 points per game on the road. In this game, a trend to keep an eye on is the play in the paint. Going against the best team in the paint may be intimidating, but Dallas happens to be the 4th best team at defending the paint this season at 43.5 on the road. If Dallas can keep the Grizzlies in the 50–55-point range after averaging 62 over their last three games, then this game will be within reach for the road team down the stretch. For bettors, the Mavericks have a 12-10 record against the spread for the season but are 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five as underdogs. Without Porzingis in the lineup, there is some much-needed size they will certainly miss, as his absence is enough for me to still lean towards the Grizzlies in this one.

Grizzlies at Home

The Grizzlies hold an impressive 16-8 home record this season and, of their 11-game win streak, have five wins at home. While their defense hasn’t looked great at times, their offense shows up every night and has given them comfortable leads to work within a lot of their games in this 11-game stretch. Again, being one of the league’s best teams in the paint is due to their quick transitions from defense to offense. The Grizzlies are the best team in the NBA at the Fastbreak, averaging 18.7 points at home. Going against Dallas, who is in the bottom half of the league at defending the Fastbreak, should the Grizzlies steal some easy points off turnovers or catch the defense back on their heels, this game could become lopsided quickly. From a betting perspective, the Grizzlies are 14-10 ATS at home. In recent games, Memphis is 4-0 ATS at home and 4-0 in their last four games as favorites. The Grizzlies offense simply will be too much for the Dallas defense no matter how good they are and have Ja Morant on their side, who can take over a game and go on a run in the blink of an eye.

The Historicals

This matchup marks the third time these teams face this season. The first two matchups came five days apart back in December where the Grizzlies got the win on the road, and then the Mavericks responded with a road win as well. Dating back to last season, the Mavericks have the 3-2 edge in their last five games.

How the Public is Betting the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies

77% are betting the Grizzlies against the spread.

53% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 217.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Dallas Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Dallas Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
  • The Memphis Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last five road games.
  • Under is 6-0 in the Grizzlies’ last six games as home favorites.

Collin’s Pick for Mavericks/Grizzlies

The Dallas Mavericks come in as one of the most well-rounded defensive teams as they face a top offense in the Grizzlies. The Mavericks have been able to slow down the pace of games and hold opponents to low scores by playing keep-away and leaning on Doncic on the offensive end. The Grizzlies are a fast-paced team that tries to run up the score in the blink of an eye and has the right star to do it in Ja Morant. With Dallas missing Porzingis when they could use him most, they will be hurting once again on both sides of the court. With the Grizzlies rolling downhill and building more momentum with key wins against teams in the West, I don’t see the Mavericks being the team to come in and end their win streak. Take the Memphis Grizzlies to cover the 3-point spread. Note: Don’t forget to check out this weekend’s NFL playoffs picks!