RBD breaks down his T1 totals model as Dallas and Brooklyn qualify for a strong betting spot on the NBA board.
Watching TV last night I saw a commercial saying that coming up next was a WNBA game, a 3 on 3 League called Unrivaled.
No I didn’t bet it.
I’m a handicapper not a degenerate.
Also, they didn’t have a line on it.
Cuz if they did . . .
I just finished updating my handicapping charts with scores that took place over the weekend (and Monday) and I see that one of my methods for picking Overs (T1) has a record of 29-15.
That’s almost 67% with 44 games picked.
As I ran today’s games through my math models I was hoping to come up with at least one game that qualifies.
I got lucky and got one.
Just one – Dallas at Brooklyn.
Model & Subcategory Check
Before I get to the standard stats I want to check some of my other charts. I want to look at some of the subcategories that I track and also I want to see the record for both of these teams when they qualify as a T1 Over.
First, in the subcategory where I cross check both models for Overs, T1 and T2, I don’t have a match, T2 does not say play the game Over.
Too bad because when both models call for the same game to go Over the record so far this year is 6-1.
But I have a third sub category I track for totals, and this game qualifies.
It has a record of 12-6, 67% on Overs, so I’m liking the spot even more now.
Team-Specific T1 Records
Now I want to check individual records for when these two teams are in this spot.
Dallas has qualified for a T1 Over in three games this season and has a record of 2-1.
I like that.
Both wins on the Over came when the Mavs were on the road (like tonight.) The only loss came when they were at home. The only other time they appeared in a T1 total was in an Under and that game won which tells me I’ve got a pretty decent handle on Dallas with this particular model.
Brooklyn qualified three times.
All three games were at home like tonight.
All three games went Over the total for a perfect 3-0 record.
So far, all signs point towards an Over in this one.
Let’s look at some standard stuff.
Standard Totals Breakdown
Overall, both teams are 25-31 Ov/Un on the season. No help there for anyone looking to bet the Over.
Dallas is 11-15 Ov/Un on the Rd.
Brooklyn is 14-13 at Hm.
No help there either.
Number Comparison & Head-to-Head
Let’s take today’s number, 225, and see how it compares to recent play, and any head-to-head games they’ve had this year.
In recent play, Dallas is 5-0 Over tonight’s number.
Brooklyn is 1-3-1.
Head to Head they’ve met twice, both games in Dallas.
The first game had a total of 219′ and they scored 230 for an Over.
The second game had a total of 219′ and they combined for 218, staying Under.
But in the game that stayed Under, Brooklyn was in Game two two of B2B’s (Back-to-Back nights) and my charts tell me that they’re just 3-7, 37% on Ov/Un when they’re playing with no rest.
The Nets were off last night so that factor is not a concern in tonight’s game.
Today’s Play
Dal/Brook Ov 225
Recap & Review
Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-10
Review:
Let’s pick I faded Washington in Game two of B2B’s. They were 0-9 SU and 3-6 (a 67% Fade) ATS in the spot. Unfortunately they were playing Indiana, last place in their division, second worst team in the entire league.
The Pacers had an 11-point lead at halftime but couldn’t hold on.
Mark Your Calendar – I did.
And when Washington is in the Game two of B2B’s again (Tuesday March 3rd at Orlando) I’m going after them to get my money back!
