Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers Odds, Trends, Point Spread Prediction

by | Dec 8, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (14-10 SU, 11-13-0 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (13-11 SU, 15-9-0 ATS)
When: Thursday, December 8th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: NBA

Point Spread: DEN -1.0/ POR -1
Total: 226.0
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -120/ -103

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Probable) Wrist
  • Michael Porter Jr. (Out) Heel
  • Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Trail Blazers

  • Gary Payton II (Out) Abdomen
  • Josh Hart (Probable) Ankle
  • Drew Eubanks (Probable) Hip
  • Nassir Little (Out) Hip
  • Keon Johnson (Probable) Hip

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Denver is 14-10 overall. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 8-7 and a win percentage of 53.0%. Currently, the team is 4th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 11-13-0 vs. the spread. Denver travels to take on the Trail Blazers, hoping to avoid their 4th straight loss.

Denver most recently lost to the Mavericks by a score of 116-115. The team high 27 points from Aaron Gordon were not enough to come away with the win. The Nuggets were 4-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Portland is 13-11 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 5-5 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 15-9-0 vs. the spread. Portland will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Denver as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

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The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Trail Blazers picked up the win 135-110 win over the Nuggets. Heading into the game, Portland was the 5.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In their last five meetings, the Nuggets have outscored the Trail Blazers by an average of 119 to 109. This has led to a 3-2 record for Denver against the spread. And as for the over-under, the teams have combined to average 228 points per game, with the “Over” cashing in four times.

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Analysis

This year, Denver is the 21st-ranked scoring unit in the NBA at 114.8 points per game. Their strong production has come despite being one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA at just 98.1 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 2nd in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.7%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.0 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Coming into today’s game, Nikola Jokic is the leading scorer for Denver at 23.0 points per game. This season, Jokic has a field goal percentage of 63.1%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jamal Murray, at 17.6 points per contest.

This season, Portland is averaging just 110.3 points per game, which places them 23rd in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.8 possessions per game. Portland has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.3%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.5 attempts per contest. Defense has been a struggle for Portland, as they are currently just 115.11 in points per game allowed. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

Coming into today’s game, Anfernee Simons is the leading scorer for Portland at 24.7 points per game. This season, Simons has a field goal percentage of 44.3%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jerami Grant at 23.0 points per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games following a straight-up loss.
  • The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • Trail Blazers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days rest.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Blazers absolutely destroyed the Nuggets earlier this season at home. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, but I’m confident the Blazers will win tonight.