Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers Game 4 Pick
Golden State Warriors (68-29 SU, 42-54-1 ATS) vs. Portland Trailblazers (61-36 SU, 52-44-1 ATS)
When: Monday, May 20th, 2019 – 9:00 PM ET
Where: Moda Center – Portland, OR
TV: ESPN / TSN
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: GS -3.5 / POR +3.5 (MyBookie)
Power Rankings: Portland +4
Takeaways from Game Three
The end seems to be near now for the Blazers after the Warriors ascended to a 3-0 lead in the series on Saturday by way of a 110-99 victory in Game Three in Rip City. The W’s closed as a 2.5-point underdog and produced their second cover in this series.
How the Public is Betting Game Four
Currently, 64% of the consensus like the Warriors laying the points. As a result of this lean, the Warriors are laying an additional half-point compared to their opening price as a three-point favorite.
The Historical / Betting Trends
As a whole the Warriors have been quite profitable in Western Conference Finals matches as of late. The W’s have been an institution and have appeared in the Western Conference Finals for the last five seasons. In their last five matches within WCF play, they have produced a 4-1 ATS record. For Over/Under players, the Over is 20-9 ATS in the last 29 meetings between Portland and Golden State.
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The Warriors continue to play without all-NBA Forward Kevin Durant who has left Game Five of the Western Conference Semifinals with a calf strain and hasn’t been back since. Despite the departure of KD, the Warriors have not lost a game since he was side-lined.
Rest Advantages and Concerns
Both teams were in action two days ago. Should the Blazers force a Game Five and avert the sweep, they will be tasked with fighting for survival in the ominous Oracle Arena in Oakland on Wednesday.
Will Golden State Outmuscle Portland To Send The Blazers Packing?
A key component of Golden State’s success in Game Four was their ability to create scoring opportunities in the paint and on the break. The Warriors outscored the Blazers 46-30 in the paint and also procured 21 fast break points to Portland managing just eight. Both of these elements were key in helping the Warriors coming from behind to defeat the Trailblazers by a double-digit margin on their own hardwood. Mirroring the shooting proficiency that we commonly see with Golden State, the Warriors shot a remarkable 48.8% from the field in Game Four. While this kind of field goal percentage is generally regarded as excellent, it is an average outing for the reigning champions as they accrued a 49.1% field goal percentage on the season which made them the best in the business in that category. Should Golden State keep its stroke again in Game Four, it may indeed be time to get out the broom and dust pan.
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Can The Trailblazers Hold A Lead To Force Game Five?
For the second consecutive game, the Trailblazers blew a double-digit half-time lead which has made them subjected to many memes floating across the internet. In Game Three, Portland was scoring at will in the first half of play as they proliferated 66 points by half-time. At one point, Portland led by as much as 18 points. However, Portland would skid out in the third quarter and scored a paltry 13 points while the Warriors looked very much like the 2017-18 edition of itself that was known for its third quarter fireworks, scoring 29 points to erase the deficit with relative ease. Unfortunately for Portland, this could be a “too little, too late” situation for them as they are facing elimination square in the face with the prospect of having to win out against a dynasty, down three games to advance to the Finals. Had the Portland held their leads respectively in Game Two and Game Three, Rip City would be in position to potentially make a dent in the post-season. How the Blazers respond to remains to be seen as their morale will be a huge factor in determining the outcome of Game Four.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Portland +150 (Money Line)
Could the Warriors wrap this series up in Game Four? Absolutely. After all, the Warriors have been a perpetual roadblock for Rip City in the post-season as Golden State beat Portland 4-1 in the 2016 Western Conference Semifinals and swept them in the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs. The two-time defending champions have been a poltergeist that the Blazers could not vanquish and the emotional intangible produced makes Golden State a very tasty option here. Nevertheless, Portland going from a 2.5-point favorite to a 3.5-point underdog (a six-point swing in total) on their own court could be the sign of an overreaction to the Warrior’s supremacy in this series. I think Portland will offer up enough resistance to avoid a sweep on its own floor and instead subject themselves to a “Gentleman’s Sweep” in Game Five. I don’t see Portland getting out of this series alive nor will the series go past Wednesday but for Game Four, I think Rip City will dig deep and feed off its fan base to get the win.
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